It is often used to justify the effectiveness of machine learning algorithms in high-dimensional settings, since the curse of dimensionality can be circumvented if the data concentrates on a lowdimensional manifold. It is, however, evident that several low-dimensional (and hence, visualisable) datasets do not satisfy the Manifold Hypothesis. Instead, such data can have singularities -- points at which the local geometry does not resemble n-dimensional Euclidean space for any n. Prime examples of singular loci of datasets include branching points in neurons and cosmic filaments. Furthermore, standard image datasets (such as MNIST and CIFAR-10) are known to have non-constant intrinsic dimension [17], whereas a connected manifold must possess the same intrinsic dimension throughout. Whenever such non-manifold behaviour within datasets is of interest, it becomes natural to wonder whether it can be accurately and automatically identified. Particularly in large, high-dimensional datasets where visual inspection is impossible, we seek tools to identify and locate singularities within datasets. Our focus here is on unsupervised singularity detection, where one has recourse neither to a plethora of training data, nor the opportunity to regenerate samples along an unknown probability measure.

This paper presents the real-world smart-meter dataset and offers an analysis of solutions derived from the Energy Prediction Technical Challenges, focusing primarily on two key competitions: the IEEE Computational Intelligence Society (IEEE-CIS) Technical Challenge on Energy Prediction from Smart Meter data in 2020 (named EP) and its follow-up challenge at the IEEE International Conference on Fuzzy Systems (FUZZ-IEEE) in 2021 (named as XEP). These competitions focus on accurate energy consumption forecasting and the importance of interpretability in understanding the underlying factors. The challenge aims to predict monthly and yearly estimated consumption for households, addressing the accurate billing problem with limited historical smart meter data. The dataset comprises 3,248 smart meters, with varying data availability ranging from a minimum of one month to a year. This paper delves into the challenges, solutions and analysing issues related to the provided real-world smart meter data, developing accurate predictions at the household level, and introducing evaluation criteria for assessing interpretability. Additionally, this paper discusses aspects beyond the competitions: opportunities for energy disaggregation and pattern detection applications at the household level, significance of communicating energy-driven factors for optimised billing, and emphasising the importance of responsible AI and data privacy considerations. These aspects provide insights into the broader implications and potential advancements in energy consumption prediction. Overall, these competitions provide a dataset for residential energy research and serve as a catalyst for exploring accurate forecasting, enhancing interpretability, and driving progress towards the discussion of various aspects such as energy disaggregation, demand response programs or behavioural interventions.

The ability to invent new tools has been identified as an important facet of our ability as a species to problem solve in dynamic and novel environments. While the use of tools by artificial agents presents a challenging task and has been widely identified as a key goal in the field of autonomous robotics, far less research has tackled the invention of new tools by agents. In this paper, (1) we articulate the distinction between tool discovery and tool innovation by providing a minimal description of the two concepts under the formalism of active inference. We then (2) apply this description to construct a toy model of tool innovation by introducing the notion of tool affordances into the hidden states of the agent's probabilistic generative model. This particular state factorisation facilitates the ability to not just discover tools but invent them through the offline induction of an appropriate tool property. We discuss the implications of these preliminary results and outline future directions of research.

Mislabeled, duplicated, or biased data in real-world scenarios can lead to prolonged training and even hinder model convergence. Traditional solutions prioritizing easy or hard samples lack the flexibility to handle such a variety simultaneously. Recent work has proposed a more reasonable data selection principle by examining the data's impact on the model's generalization loss. However, its practical adoption relies on less principled approximations and additional holdout data. This work solves these problems by leveraging a lightweight Bayesian treatment and incorporating off-the-shelf zero-shot predictors built on large-scale pre-trained models. The resulting algorithm is efficient and easy to implement. We perform extensive empirical studies on challenging benchmarks with considerable data noise and imbalance in the online batch selection scenario, and observe superior training efficiency over competitive baselines. Notably, on the challenging Web-Vision benchmark, our method can achieve similar predictive performance with significantly fewer training iterations than leading data selection methods.

Many networked datasets with units interacting in groups of two or more, encoded with hypergraphs, are accompanied by extra information about nodes, such as the role of an individual in a workplace. Here we show how these node attributes can be used to improve our understanding of the structure resulting from higher-order interactions. We consider the problem of community detection in hypergraphs and develop a principled model that combines higher-order interactions and node attributes to better represent the observed interactions and to detect communities more accurately than using either of these types of information alone. The method learns automatically from the input data the extent to which structure and attributes contribute to explain the data, down weighing or discarding attributes if not informative. Our algorithmic implementation is efficient and scales to large hypergraphs and interactions of large numbers of units. We apply our method to a variety of systems, showing strong performance in hyperedge prediction tasks and in selecting community divisions that correlate with attributes when these are informative, but discarding them otherwise. Our approach illustrates the advantage of using informative node attributes when available with higher-order data.

The Laplace's method approximates a target density with a Gaussian distribution at its mode. It is computationally efficient and asymptotically exact for Bayesian inference due to the Bernstein-von Mises theorem, but for complex targets and finite-data posteriors it is often too crude an approximation. A recent generalization of the Laplace Approximation transforms the Gaussian approximation according to a chosen Riemannian geometry providing a richer approximation family, while still retaining computational efficiency. However, as shown here, its properties heavily depend on the chosen metric, indeed the metric adopted in previous work results in approximations that are overly narrow as well as being biased even at the limit of infinite data. We correct this shortcoming by developing the approximation family further, deriving two alternative variants that are exact at the limit of infinite data, extending the theoretical analysis of the method, and demonstrating practical improvements in a range of experiments.

Connecting optimal transport and variational inference, we present a principled and systematic framework for sampling and generative modelling centred around divergences on path space. Our work culminates in the development of the \emph{Controlled Monte Carlo Diffusion} sampler (CMCD) for Bayesian computation, a score-based annealing technique that crucially adapts both forward and backward dynamics in a diffusion model. On the way, we clarify the relationship between the EM-algorithm and iterative proportional fitting (IPF) for Schr{\"o}dinger bridges, deriving as well a regularised objective that bypasses the iterative bottleneck of standard IPF-updates. Finally, we show that CMCD has a strong foundation in the Jarzinsky and Crooks identities from statistical physics, and that it convincingly outperforms competing approaches across a wide array of experiments.

As control engineering methods are applied to increasingly complex systems, data-driven approaches for system identification appear as a promising alternative to physics-based modeling. While the Bayesian approaches prevalent for safety-critical applications usually rely on the availability of state measurements, the states of a complex system are often not directly measurable. It may then be necessary to jointly estimate the dynamics and the latent state, making the quantification of uncertainties and the design of controllers with formal performance guarantees considerably more challenging. This paper proposes a novel method for the computation of an optimal input trajectory for unknown nonlinear systems with latent states based on a combination of particle Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and scenario theory. Probabilistic performance guarantees are derived for the resulting input trajectory, and an approach to validate the performance of arbitrary control laws is presented. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated in a numerical simulation.

The task of community detection, which aims to partition a network into clusters of nodes to summarize its large-scale structure, has spawned the development of many competing algorithms with varying objectives. Some community detection methods are inferential, explicitly deriving the clustering objective through a probabilistic generative model, while other methods are descriptive, dividing a network according to an objective motivated by a particular application, making it challenging to compare these methods on the same scale. Here we present a solution to this problem that associates any community detection objective, inferential or descriptive, with its corresponding implicit network generative model. This allows us to compute the description length of a network and its partition under arbitrary objectives, providing a principled measure to compare the performance of different algorithms without the need for "ground truth" labels. Our approach also gives access to instances of the community detection problem that are optimal to any given algorithm, and in this way reveals intrinsic biases in popular descriptive methods, explaining their tendency to overfit. Using our framework, we compare a number of community detection methods on artificial networks, and on a corpus of over 500 structurally diverse empirical networks. We find that more expressive community detection methods exhibit consistently superior compression performance on structured data instances, without having degraded performance on a minority of situations where more specialized algorithms perform optimally. Our results undermine the implications of the "no free lunch" theorem for community detection, both conceptually and in practice, since it is confined to unstructured data instances, unlike relevant community detection problems which are structured by requirement.

Black-box variational inference performance is sometimes hindered by the use of gradient estimators with high variance. This variance comes from two sources of randomness: Data subsampling and Monte Carlo sampling. While existing control variates only address Monte Carlo noise, and incremental gradient methods typically only address data subsampling, we propose a new "joint" control variate that jointly reduces variance from both sources of noise. This significantly reduces gradient variance, leading to faster optimization in several applications.