Uncertainty
MP and MT properties of fuzzy inference with aggregation function
As the two basic fuzzy inference models, fuzzy modus ponens (FMP) and fuzzy modus tollens (FMT) have the important application in artificial intelligence. In order to solve FMP and FMT problems, Zadeh proposed a compositional rule of inference (CRI) method. This paper aims mainly to investigate the validity of A-compositional rule of inference (ACRI) method, as a generalized CRI method based on aggregation functions, from a logical view and an interpolative view, respectively. Specifically, the modus ponens (MP) and modus tollens (MT) properties of ACRI method are discussed in detail. It is shown that the aggregation functions to implement FMP and FMT problems provide more generality than the t-norms, uninorms and overlap functions as well-known the laws of T-conditionality, U-conditionality and O-conditionality, respectively. Moreover, two examples are also given to illustrate our theoretical results. Especially, Example 6.2 shows that the output B' in FMP(FMT) problem is close to B(DC) with our proposed inference method when the fuzzy input and the antecedent of fuzzy rule are near (the fuzzy input near with the negation of the seccedent in fuzzy rule).
Parameterized Convex Minorant for Objective Function Approximation in Amortized Optimization
Parameterized convex minorant (PCM) method is proposed for the approximation of the objective function in amortized optimization. In the proposed method, the objective function approximator is expressed by the sum of a PCM and a nonnegative gap function, where the objective function approximator is bounded from below by the PCM convex in the optimization variable. The proposed objective function approximator is a universal approximator for continuous functions, and the global minimizer of the PCM attains the global minimum of the objective function approximator. Therefore, the global minimizer of the objective function approximator can be obtained by a single convex optimization. As a realization of the proposed method, extended parameterized log-sum-exp network is proposed by utilizing a parameterized log-sum-exp network as the PCM. Numerical simulation is performed for parameterized non-convex objective function approximation and for learning-based nonlinear model predictive control to demonstrate the performance and characteristics of the proposed method. The simulation results support that the proposed method can be used to learn objective functions and to find a global minimizer reliably and quickly by using convex optimization algorithms.
A Novel Variational Lower Bound for Inverse Reinforcement Learning
Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) seeks to learn the reward function from expert trajectories, to understand the task for imitation or collaboration thereby removing the need for manual reward engineering. However, IRL in the context of large, highdimensional problems with unknown dynamics has been particularly challenging. In this paper, we present a new Variational Lower Bound for IRL (VLB-IRL), which is derived under the framework of a probabilistic graphical model with an optimality node. Our method simultaneously learns the reward function and policy under the learned reward function by maximizing the lower bound, which is equivalent to minimizing the reverse Kullback-Leibler divergence between an approximated distribution of optimality given the reward function and the true distribution of optimality given trajectories. This leads to a new IRL method that learns a valid reward function such that the policy under the learned reward achieves expert-level performance on several known domains. Importantly, the method outperforms the existing state-of-the-art IRL algorithms on these domains by demonstrating better reward from the learned policy. Reinforcement learning (RL) is a popular method for automating decision making and control. However, to achieve practical effectiveness, significant engineering of reward features and reward functions has traditionally been necessary.
Nonparametric consistency for maximum likelihood estimation and clustering based on mixtures of elliptically-symmetric distributions
Coretto, Pietro, Hennig, Christian
While there is abundant work on methodology, algorithms, and applications, a smaller body of literature has investigated the relationship between the clusters found by a method and the underlying data-generating mechanism. Assuming that the observed data set is generated by independent and identical observations from a probability law P, consistency concerns the relationship between P and the outcome of a method for random samples of a size converging to infinity. In cluster analysis, the clustering itself and/or distributional parameters characterising the clustering may be of interest. Here we will derive consistency results for model-based clustering, i.e., clustering based on probability mixture models. More precisely, the results will concern maximum likelihood (ML) estimators (MLE) of finite mixtures of distributions from elliptically symmetrical distribution (ESD) families such as the Gaussian distribution. Finite mixture models (FMM) are convex combinations of probability distributions suitable to represent inhomogeneous populations.
A statistical perspective on algorithm unrolling models for inverse problems
Atchade, Yves, Liu, Xinru, Zhu, Qiuyun
We consider inverse problems where the conditional distribution of the observation ${\bf y}$ given the latent variable of interest ${\bf x}$ (also known as the forward model) is known, and we have access to a data set in which multiple instances of ${\bf x}$ and ${\bf y}$ are both observed. In this context, algorithm unrolling has become a very popular approach for designing state-of-the-art deep neural network architectures that effectively exploit the forward model. We analyze the statistical complexity of the gradient descent network (GDN), an algorithm unrolling architecture driven by proximal gradient descent. We show that the unrolling depth needed for the optimal statistical performance of GDNs is of order $\log(n)/\log(\varrho_n^{-1})$, where $n$ is the sample size, and $\varrho_n$ is the convergence rate of the corresponding gradient descent algorithm. We also show that when the negative log-density of the latent variable ${\bf x}$ has a simple proximal operator, then a GDN unrolled at depth $D'$ can solve the inverse problem at the parametric rate $O(D'/\sqrt{n})$. Our results thus also suggest that algorithm unrolling models are prone to overfitting as the unrolling depth $D'$ increases. We provide several examples to illustrate these results.
Low-Multi-Rank High-Order Bayesian Robust Tensor Factorization
The recently proposed tensor robust principal component analysis (TRPCA) methods based on tensor singular value decomposition (t-SVD) have achieved numerous successes in many fields. However, most of these methods are only applicable to third-order tensors, whereas the data obtained in practice are often of higher order, such as fourth-order color videos, fourth-order hyperspectral videos, and fifth-order light-field images. Additionally, in the t-SVD framework, the multi-rank of a tensor can describe more fine-grained low-rank structure in the tensor compared with the tubal rank. However, determining the multi-rank of a tensor is a much more difficult problem than determining the tubal rank. Moreover, most of the existing TRPCA methods do not explicitly model the noises except the sparse noise, which may compromise the accuracy of estimating the low-rank tensor. In this work, we propose a novel high-order TRPCA method, named as Low-Multi-rank High-order Bayesian Robust Tensor Factorization (LMH-BRTF), within the Bayesian framework. Specifically, we decompose the observed corrupted tensor into three parts, i.e., the low-rank component, the sparse component, and the noise component. By constructing a low-rank model for the low-rank component based on the order-$d$ t-SVD and introducing a proper prior for the model, LMH-BRTF can automatically determine the tensor multi-rank. Meanwhile, benefiting from the explicit modeling of both the sparse and noise components, the proposed method can leverage information from the noises more effectivly, leading to an improved performance of TRPCA. Then, an efficient variational inference algorithm is established for parameters estimation. Empirical studies on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in terms of both qualitative and quantitative results.
Testing Dependency of Unlabeled Databases
Paslev, Vered, Huleihel, Wasim
In this paper, we investigate the problem of deciding whether two random databases $\mathsf{X}\in\mathcal{X}^{n\times d}$ and $\mathsf{Y}\in\mathcal{Y}^{n\times d}$ are statistically dependent or not. This is formulated as a hypothesis testing problem, where under the null hypothesis, these two databases are statistically independent, while under the alternative, there exists an unknown row permutation $\sigma$, such that $\mathsf{X}$ and $\mathsf{Y}^\sigma$, a permuted version of $\mathsf{Y}$, are statistically dependent with some known joint distribution, but have the same marginal distributions as the null. We characterize the thresholds at which optimal testing is information-theoretically impossible and possible, as a function of $n$, $d$, and some spectral properties of the generative distributions of the datasets. For example, we prove that if a certain function of the eigenvalues of the likelihood function and $d$, is below a certain threshold, as $d\to\infty$, then weak detection (performing slightly better than random guessing) is statistically impossible, no matter what the value of $n$ is. This mimics the performance of an efficient test that thresholds a centered version of the log-likelihood function of the observed matrices. We also analyze the case where $d$ is fixed, for which we derive strong (vanishing error) and weak detection lower and upper bounds.
PRIOR: Personalized Prior for Reactivating the Information Overlooked in Federated Learning
Shi, Mingjia, Zhou, Yuhao, Wang, Kai, Zhang, Huaizheng, Huang, Shudong, Ye, Qing, Lv, Jiangcheng
Classical federated learning (FL) enables training machine learning models without sharing data for privacy preservation, but heterogeneous data characteristic degrades the performance of the localized model. Personalized FL (PFL) addresses this by synthesizing personalized models from a global model via training on local data. Such a global model may overlook the specific information that the clients have been sampled. In this paper, we propose a novel scheme to inject personalized prior knowledge into the global model in each client, which attempts to mitigate the introduced incomplete information problem in PFL. At the heart of our proposed approach is a framework, the PFL with Bregman Divergence (pFedBreD), decoupling the personalized prior from the local objective function regularized by Bregman divergence for greater adaptability in personalized scenarios. We also relax the mirror descent (RMD) to extract the prior explicitly to provide optional strategies. Additionally, our pFedBreD is backed up by a convergence analysis. Sufficient experiments demonstrate that our method reaches the state-of-the-art performances on 5 datasets and outperforms other methods by up to 3.5% across 8 benchmarks. Extensive analyses verify the robustness and necessity of proposed designs.
Distributionally Robust Skeleton Learning of Discrete Bayesian Networks
We consider the problem of learning the exact skeleton of general discrete Bayesian networks from potentially corrupted data. Building on distributionally robust optimization and a regression approach, we propose to optimize the most adverse risk over a family of distributions within bounded Wasserstein distance or KL divergence to the empirical distribution. The worst-case risk accounts for the effect of outliers. The proposed approach applies for general categorical random variables without assuming faithfulness, an ordinal relationship or a specific form of conditional distribution. We present efficient algorithms and show the proposed methods are closely related to the standard regularized regression approach. Under mild assumptions, we derive non-asymptotic guarantees for successful structure learning with logarithmic sample complexities for bounded-degree graphs. Numerical study on synthetic and real datasets validates the effectiveness of our method. Code is available at https://github.com/DanielLeee/drslbn.
Anytime-Valid Confidence Sequences for Consistent Uncertainty Estimation in Early-Exit Neural Networks
Jazbec, Metod, Forré, Patrick, Mandt, Stephan, Zhang, Dan, Nalisnick, Eric
Early-exit neural networks (EENNs) facilitate adaptive inference by producing predictions at multiple stages of the forward pass. In safety-critical applications, these predictions are only meaningful when complemented with reliable uncertainty estimates. Yet, due to their sequential structure, an EENN's uncertainty estimates should also be consistent: labels that are deemed improbable at one exit should not reappear within the confidence interval / set of later exits. We show that standard uncertainty quantification techniques, like Bayesian methods or conformal prediction, can lead to inconsistency across exits. We address this problem by applying anytime-valid confidence sequences (AVCSs) to the exits of EENNs. By design, AVCSs maintain consistency across exits. We examine the theoretical and practical challenges of applying AVCSs to EENNs and empirically validate our approach on both regression and classification tasks.