Probabilistic control design is founded on the principle that a rational agent attempts to match modelled with an arbitrary desired closed-loop system trajectory density. The framework was originally proposed as a tractable alternative to traditional optimal control design, parametrizing desired behaviour through fictitious transition and policy densities and using the information projection as a proximity measure. In this work we introduce an alternative parametrization of desired closed-loop behaviour and explore alternative proximity measures between densities. It is then illustrated how the associated probabilistic control problems solve into uncertain or probabilistic policies. Our main result is to show that the probabilistic control objectives majorize conventional, stochastic and risk sensitive, optimal control objectives. This observation allows us to identify two probabilistic fixed point iterations that converge to the deterministic optimal control policies establishing an explicit connection between either formulations. Further we demonstrate that the risk sensitive optimal control formulation is also technically equivalent to a Maximum Likelihood estimation problem on a probabilistic graph model where the notion of costs is directly encoded into the model. The associated treatment of the estimation problem is then shown to coincide with the moment projected probabilistic control formulation. That way optimal decision making can be reformulated as an iterative inference problem. Based on these insights we discuss directions for algorithmic development.

Electronic health records contain valuable information for monitoring patients' health trajectories over time. Disease progression models have been developed to understand the underlying patterns and dynamics of diseases using these data as sequences. However, analyzing temporal data from EHRs is challenging due to the variability and irregularities present in medical records. We propose a Markovian generative model of treatments developed to (i) model the irregular time intervals between medical events; (ii) classify treatments into subtypes based on the patient sequence of medical events and the time intervals between them; and (iii) segment treatments into subsequences of disease progression patterns. We assume that sequences have an associated structure of latent variables: a latent class representing the different subtypes of treatments; and a set of latent stages indicating the phase of progression of the treatments. We use the Expectation-Maximization algorithm to learn the model, which is efficiently solved with a dynamic programming-based method. Various parametric models have been employed to model the time intervals between medical events during the learning process, including the geometric, exponential, and Weibull distributions. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of our model in recovering the underlying model from data and accurately modeling the irregular time intervals between medical actions.

Regularization is one of the most fundamental topics in optimization, statistics and machine learning. To get sparsity in estimating a parameter $u\in\mathbb{R}^d$, an $\ell_q$ penalty term, $\Vert u\Vert_q$, is usually added to the objective function. What is the probabilistic distribution corresponding to such $\ell_q$ penalty? What is the correct stochastic process corresponding to $\Vert u\Vert_q$ when we model functions $u\in L^q$? This is important for statistically modeling large dimensional objects, e.g. images, with penalty to preserve certainty properties, e.g. edges in the image. In this work, we generalize the $q$-exponential distribution (with density proportional to) $\exp{(- \frac{1}{2}|u|^q)}$ to a stochastic process named $Q$-exponential (Q-EP) process that corresponds to the $L_q$ regularization of functions. The key step is to specify consistent multivariate $q$-exponential distributions by choosing from a large family of elliptic contour distributions. The work is closely related to Besov process which is usually defined by the expanded series. Q-EP can be regarded as a definition of Besov process with explicit probabilistic formulation and direct control on the correlation length. From the Bayesian perspective, Q-EP provides a flexible prior on functions with sharper penalty ($q<2$) than the commonly used Gaussian process (GP). We compare GP, Besov and Q-EP in modeling functional data, reconstructing images, and solving inverse problems and demonstrate the advantage of our proposed methodology.

We present sparse tree-based and list-based density estimation methods for binary/categorical data. Our density estimation models are higher dimensional analogies to variable bin width histograms. In each leaf of the tree (or list), the density is constant, similar to the flat density within the bin of a histogram. Histograms, however, cannot easily be visualized in more than two dimensions, whereas our models can. The accuracy of histograms fades as dimensions increase, whereas our models have priors that help with generalization. Our models are sparse, unlike high-dimensional fixed-bin histograms. We present three generative modeling methods, where the first one allows the user to specify the preferred number of leaves in the tree within a Bayesian prior. The second method allows the user to specify the preferred number of branches within the prior. The third method returns density lists (rather than trees) and allows the user to specify the preferred number of rules and the length of rules within the prior. The new approaches often yield a better balance between sparsity and accuracy of density estimates than other methods for this task. We present an application to crime analysis, where we estimate how unusual each type of modus operandi is for a house break-in.

This paper investigates the asymptotic distribution of the K-fold cross validation error in an i.i.d. setting. As the number of observations n goes to infinity while keeping the number of folds K fixed, the K-fold cross validation error is √ n-consistent for the expected out-of-sample error and has an asymptotically normal distribution. A consistent estimate of the asymptotic variance is derived and used to construct asymptotically valid confidence intervals for the expected out-of-sample error. A hypothesis test is developed for comparing two estimators’ expected out-of-sample errors and a subsampling procedure is used to obtain critical values. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the asymptotic validity of our confidence intervals for the expected out-of-sample error and investigate the size and power properties of our test. In our empirical application, we use our estimator selection test to compare the out-of-sample predictive performance of OLS, Neural Networks, and Random Forests for predicting the sale price of a domain name in a GoDaddy expiry auction.

In sampling-based Bayesian models of brain function, neural activities are assumed to be samples from probability distributions that the brain uses for probabilistic computation. However, a comprehensive understanding of how mechanistic models of neural dynamics can sample from arbitrary distributions is still lacking. We use tools from functional analysis and stochastic differential equations to explore the minimum architectural requirements for $\textit{recurrent}$ neural circuits to sample from complex distributions. We first consider the traditional sampling model consisting of a network of neurons whose outputs directly represent the samples (sampler-only network). We argue that synaptic current and firing-rate dynamics in the traditional model have limited capacity to sample from a complex probability distribution. We show that the firing rate dynamics of a recurrent neural circuit with a separate set of output units can sample from an arbitrary probability distribution. We call such circuits reservoir-sampler networks (RSNs). We propose an efficient training procedure based on denoising score matching that finds recurrent and output weights such that the RSN implements Langevin sampling. We empirically demonstrate our model's ability to sample from several complex data distributions using the proposed neural dynamics and discuss its applicability to developing the next generation of sampling-based brain models.

We investigate the problem of corruption robustness in offline reinforcement learning (RL) with general function approximation, where an adversary can corrupt each sample in the offline dataset, and the corruption level $\zeta\geq0$ quantifies the cumulative corruption amount over $n$ episodes and $H$ steps. Our goal is to find a policy that is robust to such corruption and minimizes the suboptimality gap with respect to the optimal policy for the uncorrupted Markov decision processes (MDPs). Drawing inspiration from the uncertainty-weighting technique from the robust online RL setting \citep{he2022nearly,ye2022corruptionrobust}, we design a new uncertainty weight iteration procedure to efficiently compute on batched samples and propose a corruption-robust algorithm for offline RL. Notably, under the assumption of single policy coverage and the knowledge of $\zeta$, our proposed algorithm achieves a suboptimality bound that is worsened by an additive factor of $\mathcal O(\zeta \cdot (\text{CC}(\lambda,\hat{\mathcal F},\mathcal Z_n^H))^{1/2} (C(\hat{\mathcal F},\mu))^{-1/2} n^{-1})$ due to the corruption. Here $\text{CC}(\lambda,\hat{\mathcal F},\mathcal Z_n^H)$ is the coverage coefficient that depends on the regularization parameter $\lambda$, the confidence set $\hat{\mathcal F}$, and the dataset $\mathcal Z_n^H$, and $C(\hat{\mathcal F},\mu)$ is a coefficient that depends on $\hat{\mathcal F}$ and the underlying data distribution $\mu$. When specialized to linear MDPs, the corruption-dependent error term reduces to $\mathcal O(\zeta d n^{-1})$ with $d$ being the dimension of the feature map, which matches the existing lower bound for corrupted linear MDPs. This suggests that our analysis is tight in terms of the corruption-dependent term.

Phase transitions, characterized by abrupt shifts between macroscopic patterns of organization, are ubiquitous in complex systems. Despite considerable research in the physical and natural sciences, the empirical study of this phenomenon in societal systems is relatively underdeveloped. The goal of this study is to explore whether the dynamics of collective civil unrest can be plausibly characterized as a sequence of recurrent phase shifts, with each phase having measurable and identifiable latent characteristics. Building on previous efforts to characterize civil unrest as a self-organized critical system, we introduce a macro-level statistical model of civil unrest and evaluate its plausibility using a comprehensive dataset of civil unrest events in 170 countries from 1946 to 2017. Our findings demonstrate that the macro-level phase model effectively captures the characteristics of civil unrest data from diverse countries globally and that universal mechanisms may underlie certain aspects of the dynamics of civil unrest. We also introduce a scale to quantify a country's long-term unrest per unit of time and show that civil unrest events tend to cluster geographically, with the magnitude of civil unrest concentrated in specific regions. Our approach has the potential to identify and measure phase transitions in various collective human phenomena beyond civil unrest, contributing to a better understanding of complex social systems.

Such assessments are Response Theory (IRT) to capture temporal dynamics in referred to as formative assessments and are used not only learner ability. While these models have the potential to allow to track student learning and make appropriate instructional instructional systems to actively monitor the evolution interventions, but also to allow learners to practice their of learner proficiency in real time, existing dynamic item response knowledge and skills, and make necessary self-corrections models rely on expensive inference algorithms that [17]. When learning occurs alongside assessment, learner scale poorly to massive datasets. In this work, we propose proficiency is longitudinal rather than inert, and the assumption Variational Temporal IRT (VTIRT) for fast and accurate of static proficiency makes standard IRT less suitable inference of dynamic learner proficiency. VTIRT offers orders as a model of proficiency measurement. of magnitude speedup in inference runtime while still providing accurate inference. Moreover, the proposed algorithm Dynamic Item Response models [14, 11] mitigate this issue is intrinsically interpretable by virtue of its modular by removing the assumptions of static ability and instead allowing design. When applied to 9 real student datasets, VTIRT it to stochastically change over time, but existing inference consistently yields improvements in predicting future learner methods rely on expensive iterative algorithms with performance over other learner proficiency models.

Applying a machine learning model for decision-making in the real world requires to distinguish what the model knows from what it does not. A critical factor in assessing the knowledge of a model is to quantify its predictive uncertainty. Predictive uncertainty is commonly measured by the entropy of the Bayesian model average (BMA) predictive distribution. Yet, the properness of this current measure of predictive uncertainty was recently questioned. We provide new insights regarding those limitations. Our analyses show that the current measure erroneously assumes that the BMA predictive distribution is equivalent to the predictive distribution of the true model that generated the dataset. Consequently, we introduce a theoretically grounded measure to overcome these limitations. We experimentally verify the benefits of our introduced measure of predictive uncertainty. We find that our introduced measure behaves more reasonably in controlled synthetic tasks. Moreover, our evaluations on ImageNet demonstrate that our introduced measure is advantageous in real-world applications utilizing predictive uncertainty.