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 Uncertainty


Exploring the hierarchical structure of human plans via program generation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Human behavior is inherently hierarchical, resulting from the decomposition of a task into subtasks or an abstract action into concrete actions. However, behavior is typically measured as a sequence of actions, which makes it difficult to infer its hierarchical structure. In this paper, we explore how people form hierarchically-structured plans, using an experimental paradigm that makes hierarchical representations observable: participants create programs that produce sequences of actions in a language with explicit hierarchical structure. This task lets us test two well-established principles of human behavior: utility maximization (i.e. using fewer actions) and minimum description length (MDL; i.e. having a shorter program). We find that humans are sensitive to both metrics, but that both accounts fail to predict a qualitative feature of human-created programs, namely that people prefer programs with reuse over and above the predictions of MDL. We formalize this preference for reuse by extending the MDL account into a generative model over programs, modeling hierarchy choice as the induction of a grammar over actions. Our account can explain the preference for reuse and provides the best prediction of human behavior, going beyond simple accounts of compressibility to highlight a principle that guides hierarchical planning.


Color-Emotion Associations in Art: Fuzzy Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Art objects can evoke certain emotions. Color is a fundamental element of visual art and plays a significant role in how art is perceived. This paper introduces a novel approach to classifying emotions in art using Fuzzy Sets. We employ a fuzzy approach because it aligns well with human judgments' imprecise and subjective nature. Extensive fuzzy colors (n=120) and a broad emotional spectrum (n=10) allow for a more human-consistent and context-aware exploration of emotions inherent in paintings. First, we introduce the fuzzy color representation model. Then, at the fuzzification stage, we process the Wiki Art Dataset of paintings tagged with emotions, extracting fuzzy dominant colors linked to specific emotions. This results in fuzzy color distributions for ten emotions. Finally, we convert them back to a crisp domain, obtaining a knowledge base of color-emotion associations in primary colors. Our findings reveal strong associations between specific emotions and colors; for instance, gratitude strongly correlates with green, brown, and orange. Other noteworthy associations include brown and anger, orange with shame, yellow with happiness, and gray with fear. Using these associations and Jaccard similarity, we can find the emotions in the arbitrary untagged image. We conducted a 2AFC experiment involving human subjects to evaluate the proposed method. The average hit rate of 0.77 indicates a significant correlation between the method's predictions and human perception. The proposed method is simple to adapt to art painting retrieval systems. The study contributes to the theoretical understanding of color-emotion associations in art, offering valuable insights for various practical applications besides art, like marketing, design, and psychology.


On Exact Inversion of DPM-Solvers

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) are a key component in modern generative models. DPM-solvers have achieved reduced latency and enhanced quality significantly, but have posed challenges to find the exact inverse (i.e., finding the initial noise from the given image). Here we investigate the exact inversions for DPM-solvers and propose algorithms to perform them when samples are generated by the first-order as well as higher-order DPM-solvers. For each explicit denoising step in DPM-solvers, we formulated the inversions using implicit methods such as gradient descent or forward step method to ensure the robustness to large classifier-free guidance unlike the prior approach using fixed-point iteration. Experimental results demonstrated that our proposed exact inversion methods significantly reduced the error of both image and noise reconstructions, greatly enhanced the ability to distinguish invisible watermarks and well prevented unintended background changes consistently during image editing. Project page: \url{https://smhongok.github.io/inv-dpm.html}.


Uncertainty in Graph Contrastive Learning with Bayesian Neural Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Graph contrastive learning has shown great promise when labeled data is scarce, but large unlabeled datasets are available. However, it often does not take uncertainty estimation into account. We show that a variational Bayesian neural network approach can be used to improve not only the uncertainty estimates but also the downstream performance on semi-supervised node-classification tasks. Moreover, we propose a new measure of uncertainty for contrastive learning, that is based on the disagreement in likelihood due to different positive samples.


Active Learning and Bayesian Optimization: a Unified Perspective to Learn with a Goal

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Science and Engineering applications are typically associated with expensive optimization problem to identify optimal design solutions and states of the system of interest. Bayesian optimization and active learning compute surrogate models through efficient adaptive sampling schemes to assist and accelerate this search task toward a given optimization goal. Both those methodologies are driven by specific infill/learning criteria which quantify the utility with respect to the set goal of evaluating the objective function for unknown combinations of optimization variables. While the two fields have seen an exponential growth in popularity in the past decades, their dualism and synergy have received relatively little attention to date. This paper discusses and formalizes the synergy between Bayesian optimization and active learning as symbiotic adaptive sampling methodologies driven by common principles. In particular, we demonstrate this unified perspective through the formalization of the analogy between the Bayesian infill criteria and active learning criteria as driving principles of both the goal-driven procedures. To support our original perspective, we propose a general classification of adaptive sampling techniques to highlight similarities and differences between the vast families of adaptive sampling, active learning, and Bayesian optimization. Accordingly, the synergy is demonstrated mapping the Bayesian infill criteria with the active learning criteria, and is formalized for searches informed by both a single information source and multiple levels of fidelity. In addition, we provide guidelines to apply those learning criteria investigating the performance of different Bayesian schemes for a variety of benchmark problems to highlight benefits and limitations over mathematical properties that characterize real-world applications.


Active learning for data streams: a survey

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Online active learning is a paradigm in machine learning that aims to select the most informative data points to label from a data stream. The problem of minimizing the cost associated with collecting labeled observations has gained a lot of attention in recent years, particularly in real-world applications where data is only available in an unlabeled form. Annotating each observation can be time-consuming and costly, making it difficult to obtain large amounts of labeled data. To overcome this issue, many active learning strategies have been proposed in the last decades, aiming to select the most informative observations for labeling in order to improve the performance of machine learning models. These approaches can be broadly divided into two categories: static pool-based and stream-based active learning. Pool-based active learning involves selecting a subset of observations from a closed pool of unlabeled data, and it has been the focus of many surveys and literature reviews. However, the growing availability of data streams has led to an increase in the number of approaches that focus on online active learning, which involves continuously selecting and labeling observations as they arrive in a stream. This work aims to provide an overview of the most recently proposed approaches for selecting the most informative observations from data streams in real time. We review the various techniques that have been proposed and discuss their strengths and limitations, as well as the challenges and opportunities that exist in this area of research.


Using Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process to understand Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model and its Noise Schedules

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The aim of this short note is to show that Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model DDPM, a non-homogeneous discrete-time Markov process, can be represented by a time-homogeneous continuous-time Markov process observed at non-uniformly sampled discrete times. Surprisingly, this continuous-time Markov process is the well-known and well-studied Ornstein-Ohlenbeck (OU) process, which was developed in 1930's for studying Brownian particles in Harmonic potentials. We establish the formal equivalence between DDPM and the OU process using its analytical solution. We further demonstrate that the design problem of the noise scheduler for non-homogeneous DDPM is equivalent to designing observation times for the OU process. We present several heuristic designs for observation times based on principled quantities such as auto-variance and Fisher Information and connect them to ad hoc noise schedules for DDPM. Interestingly, we show that the Fisher-Information-motivated schedule corresponds exactly the cosine schedule, which was developed without any theoretical foundation but is the current state-of-the-art noise schedule.


Probabilistic Speech-Driven 3D Facial Motion Synthesis: New Benchmarks, Methods, and Applications

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We consider the task of animating 3D facial geometry from speech signal. Existing works are primarily deterministic, focusing on learning a one-to-one mapping from speech signal to 3D face meshes on small datasets with limited speakers. While these models can achieve high-quality lip articulation for speakers in the training set, they are unable to capture the full and diverse distribution of 3D facial motions that accompany speech in the real world. Importantly, the relationship between speech and facial motion is one-to-many, containing both inter-speaker and intra-speaker variations and necessitating a probabilistic approach. In this paper, we identify and address key challenges that have so far limited the development of probabilistic models: lack of datasets and metrics that are suitable for training and evaluating them, as well as the difficulty of designing a model that generates diverse results while remaining faithful to a strong conditioning signal as speech. We first propose large-scale benchmark datasets and metrics suitable for probabilistic modeling. Then, we demonstrate a probabilistic model that achieves both diversity and fidelity to speech, outperforming other methods across the proposed benchmarks. Finally, we showcase useful applications of probabilistic models trained on these large-scale datasets: we can generate diverse speech-driven 3D facial motion that matches unseen speaker styles extracted from reference clips; and our synthetic meshes can be used to improve the performance of downstream audio-visual models.


A Probabilistic Method to Predict Classifier Accuracy on Larger Datasets given Small Pilot Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Practitioners building classifiers often start with a smaller pilot dataset and plan to grow to larger data in the near future. Such projects need a toolkit for extrapolating how much classifier accuracy may improve from a 2x, 10x, or 50x increase in data size. While existing work has focused on finding a single "best-fit" curve using various functional forms like power laws, we argue that modeling and assessing the uncertainty of predictions is critical yet has seen less attention. In this paper, we propose a Gaussian process model to obtain probabilistic extrapolations of accuracy or similar performance metrics as dataset size increases. We evaluate our approach in terms of error, likelihood, and coverage across six datasets. Though we focus on medical tasks and image modalities, our open source approach generalizes to any kind of classifier.


Spinal Muscle Atrophy Disease Modelling as Bayesian Network

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We investigate the molecular gene expressions studies and public databases for disease modelling using Probabilistic Graphical Models and Bayesian Inference. A case study on Spinal Muscle Atrophy Genome-Wide Association Study results is modelled and analyzed. The genes up and down-regulated in two stages of the disease development are linked to prior knowledge published in the public domain and co-expressions network is created and analyzed. The Molecular Pathways triggered by these genes are identified. The Bayesian inference posteriors distributions are estimated using a variational analytical algorithm and a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm. Assumptions, limitations and possible future work are concluded.