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 Uncertainty


Experimental Insights Towards Explainable and Interpretable Pedestrian Crossing Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the context of autonomous driving, pedestrian crossing prediction is a key component for improving road safety. Presently, the focus of these predictions extends beyond achieving trustworthy results; it is shifting towards the explainability and interpretability of these predictions. This research introduces a novel neuro-symbolic approach that combines deep learning and fuzzy logic for an explainable and interpretable pedestrian crossing prediction. We have developed an explainable predictor (ExPedCross), which utilizes a set of explainable features and employs a fuzzy inference system to predict whether the pedestrian will cross or not. Our approach was evaluated on both the PIE and JAAD datasets. The results offer experimental insights into achieving explainability and interpretability in the pedestrian crossing prediction task. Furthermore, the testing results yield a set of guidelines and recommendations regarding the process of dataset selection, feature selection, and explainability.


Policy Gradient with Kernel Quadrature

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Reward evaluation of episodes becomes a bottleneck in a broad range of reinforcement learning tasks. Our aim in this paper is to select a small but representative subset of a large batch of episodes, only on which we actually compute rewards for more efficient policy gradient iterations. We build a Gaussian process modeling of discounted returns or rewards to derive a positive definite kernel on the space of episodes, run an ``episodic" kernel quadrature method to compress the information of sample episodes, and pass the reduced episodes to the policy network for gradient updates. We present the theoretical background of this procedure as well as its numerical illustrations in MuJoCo tasks.


On the Identifiability of Quantized Factors

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Disentanglement aims to recover meaningful latent ground-truth factors from the observed distribution solely, and is formalized through the theory of identifiability. The identifiability of independent latent factors is proven to be impossible in the unsupervised i.i.d. setting under a general nonlinear map from factors to observations. In this work, however, we demonstrate that it is possible to recover quantized latent factors under a generic nonlinear diffeomorphism. We only assume that the latent factors have independent discontinuities in their density, without requiring the factors to be statistically independent. We introduce this novel form of identifiability, termed quantized factor identifiability, and provide a comprehensive proof of the recovery of the quantized factors.


Bootstrap Your Own Variance

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Understanding model uncertainty is important for many applications. We propose Bootstrap Your Own Variance (BYOV), combining Bootstrap Your Own Latent (BYOL), a negative-free Self-Supervised Learning (SSL) algorithm, with Bayes by Backprop (BBB), a Bayesian method for estimating model posteriors. We find that the learned predictive std of BYOV vs. a supervised BBB model is well captured by a Gaussian distribution, providing preliminary evidence that the learned parameter posterior is useful for label free uncertainty estimation. BYOV improves upon the deterministic BYOL baseline (+2.83% test ECE, +1.03% test Brier) and presents better calibration and reliability when tested with various augmentations (eg: +2.4% test ECE, +1.2% test Brier for Salt & Pepper noise).


Maximum likelihood thresholds of Gaussian graphical models and graphical lasso

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Associated to each graph G is a Gaussian graphical model. Such models are often used in high-dimensional settings, i.e. where there are relatively few data points compared to the number of variables. The maximum likelihood threshold of a graph is the minimum number of data points required to fit the corresponding graphical model using maximum likelihood estimation. Graphical lasso is a method for selecting and fitting a graphical model. In this project, we ask: when graphical lasso is used to select and fit a graphical model on n data points, how likely is it that n is greater than or equal to the maximum likelihood threshold of the corresponding graph? Our results are a series of computational experiments.


FedBayes: A Zero-Trust Federated Learning Aggregation to Defend Against Adversarial Attacks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Federated learning has created a decentralized method to train a machine learning model without needing direct access to client data. The main goal of a federated learning architecture is to protect the privacy of each client while still contributing to the training of the global model. However, the main advantage of privacy in federated learning is also the easiest aspect to exploit. Without being able to see the clients' data, it is difficult to determine the quality of the data. By utilizing data poisoning methods, such as backdoor or label-flipping attacks, or by sending manipulated information about their data back to the server, malicious clients are able to corrupt the global model and degrade performance across all clients within a federation. Our novel aggregation method, FedBayes, mitigates the effect of a malicious client by calculating the probabilities of a client's model weights given to the prior model's weights using Bayesian statistics. Our results show that this approach negates the effects of malicious clients and protects the overall federation.


PartSLIP++: Enhancing Low-Shot 3D Part Segmentation via Multi-View Instance Segmentation and Maximum Likelihood Estimation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Open-world 3D part segmentation is pivotal in diverse applications such as robotics and AR/VR. Traditional supervised methods often grapple with limited 3D data availability and struggle to generalize to unseen object categories. PartSLIP, a recent advancement, has made significant strides in zero- and few-shot 3D part segmentation. This is achieved by harnessing the capabilities of the 2D open-vocabulary detection module, GLIP, and introducing a heuristic method for converting and lifting multi-view 2D bounding box predictions into 3D segmentation masks. In this paper, we introduce PartSLIP++, an enhanced version designed to overcome the limitations of its predecessor. Our approach incorporates two major improvements. First, we utilize a pre-trained 2D segmentation model, SAM, to produce pixel-wise 2D segmentations, yielding more precise and accurate annotations than the 2D bounding boxes used in PartSLIP. Second, PartSLIP++ replaces the heuristic 3D conversion process with an innovative modified Expectation-Maximization algorithm. This algorithm conceptualizes 3D instance segmentation as unobserved latent variables, and then iteratively refines them through an alternating process of 2D-3D matching and optimization with gradient descent. Through extensive evaluations, we show that PartSLIP++ demonstrates better performance over PartSLIP in both low-shot 3D semantic and instance-based object part segmentation tasks. Code released at https://github.com/zyc00/PartSLIP2.


ResEnsemble-DDPM: Residual Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models for Ensemble Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Nowadays, denoising diffusion probabilistic models have been adapted for many image segmentation tasks. However, existing end-to-end models have already demonstrated remarkable capabilities. Rather than using denoising diffusion probabilistic models alone, integrating the abilities of both denoising diffusion probabilistic models and existing end-to-end models can better improve the performance of image segmentation. Based on this, we implicitly introduce residual term into the diffusion process and propose ResEnsemble-DDPM, which seamlessly integrates the diffusion model and the end-to-end model through ensemble learning. The output distributions of these two models are strictly symmetric with respect to the ground truth distribution, allowing us to integrate the two models by reducing the residual term. Experimental results demonstrate that our ResEnsemble-DDPM can further improve the capabilities of existing models. Furthermore, its ensemble learning strategy can be generalized to other downstream tasks in image generation and get strong competitiveness.


Learning Energy-based Model via Dual-MCMC Teaching

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper studies the fundamental learning problem of the energy-based model (EBM). Learning the EBM can be achieved using the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), which typically involves the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, such as the Langevin dynamics. However, the noise-initialized Langevin dynamics can be challenging in practice and hard to mix. This motivates the exploration of joint training with the generator model where the generator model serves as a complementary model to bypass MCMC sampling. However, such a method can be less accurate than the MCMC and result in biased EBM learning. While the generator can also serve as an initializer model for better MCMC sampling, its learning can be biased since it only matches the EBM and has no access to empirical training examples. Such biased generator learning may limit the potential of learning the EBM. To address this issue, we present a joint learning framework that interweaves the maximum likelihood learning algorithm for both the EBM and the complementary generator model. In particular, the generator model is learned by MLE to match both the EBM and the empirical data distribution, making it a more informative initializer for MCMC sampling of EBM. Learning generator with observed examples typically requires inference of the generator posterior. To ensure accurate and efficient inference, we adopt the MCMC posterior sampling and introduce a complementary inference model to initialize such latent MCMC sampling. We show that three separate models can be seamlessly integrated into our joint framework through two (dual-) MCMC teaching, enabling effective and efficient EBM learning.


Learning-Based Approaches to Predictive Monitoring with Conformal Statistical Guarantees

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This tutorial focuses on efficient methods to predictive monitoring (PM), the problem of detecting at runtime future violations of a given requirement from the current state of a system. While performing model checking at runtime would offer a precise solution to the PM problem, it is generally computationally expensive. To address this scalability issue, several lightweight approaches based on machine learning have recently been proposed. These approaches work by learning an approximate yet efficient surrogate (deep learning) model of the expensive model checker. A key challenge remains to ensure reliable predictions, especially in safety-critical applications. We review our recent work on predictive monitoring, one of the first to propose learning-based approximations for CPS verification of temporal logic specifications and the first in this context to apply conformal prediction (CP) for rigorous uncertainty quantification. These CP-based uncertainty estimators offer statistical guarantees regarding the generalization error of the learning model, and they can be used to determine unreliable predictions that should be rejected. In this tutorial, we present a general and comprehensive framework summarizing our approach to the predictive monitoring of CPSs, examining in detail several variants determined by three main dimensions: system dynamics (deterministic, non-deterministic, stochastic), state observability, and semantics of requirements' satisfaction (Boolean or quantitative).