The theory of Bayesian learning incorporates the use of Student-t Processes to model heavy-tailed distributions and datasets with outliers. However, despite Student-t Processes having a similar computational complexity as Gaussian Processes, there has been limited emphasis on the sparse representation of this model. This is mainly due to the increased difficulty in modeling and computation compared to previous sparse Gaussian Processes. Our motivation is to address the need for a sparse representation framework that reduces computational complexity, allowing Student-t Processes to be more flexible for real-world datasets. To achieve this, we leverage the conditional distribution of Student-t Processes to introduce sparse inducing points. Bayesian methods and variational inference are then utilized to derive a well-defined lower bound, facilitating more efficient optimization of our model through stochastic gradient descent. We propose two methods for computing the variational lower bound, one utilizing Monte Carlo sampling and the other employing Jensen's inequality to compute the KL regularization term in the loss function. We propose adopting these approaches as viable alternatives to Gaussian processes when the data might contain outliers or exhibit heavy-tailed behavior, and we provide specific recommendations for their applicability. We evaluate the two proposed approaches on various synthetic and real-world datasets from UCI and Kaggle, demonstrating their effectiveness compared to baseline methods in terms of computational complexity and accuracy, as well as their robustness to outliers.

The blooming diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have garnered significant interest due to their impressive performance and the elegant inspiration they draw from physics. While earlier DPMs relied upon the Markovian assumption, recent methods based on differential equations have been rapidly applied to enhance the efficiency and capabilities of these models. However, a theoretical interpretation encapsulating these diverse algorithms is insufficient yet pressingly required to guide further development of DPMs. In response to this need, we present FreeFlow, a framework that provides a thorough explanation of the diffusion formula as time-dependent optimal transport, where the evolutionary pattern of probability density is given by the gradient flows of a functional defined in Wasserstein space. Crucially, our framework necessitates a unified description that not only clarifies the subtle mechanism of DPMs but also indicates the roots of some defects through creative involvement of Lagrangian and Eulerian views to understand the evolution of probability flow. We particularly demonstrate that the core equation of FreeFlow condenses all stochastic and deterministic DPMs into a single case, showcasing the expansibility of our method. Furthermore, the Riemannian geometry employed in our work has the potential to bridge broader subjects in mathematics, which enable the involvement of more profound tools for the establishment of more outstanding and generalized models in the future.

Leveraging neural networks as surrogate models for turbulence simulation is a topic of growing interest. At the same time, embodying the inherent uncertainty of simulations in the predictions of surrogate models remains very challenging. The present study makes a first attempt to use denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) to train an uncertainty-aware surrogate model for turbulence simulations. Due to its prevalence, the simulation of flows around airfoils with various shapes, Reynolds numbers, and angles of attack is chosen as the learning objective. Our results show that DDPMs can successfully capture the whole distribution of solutions and, as a consequence, accurately estimate the uncertainty of the simulations. The performance of DDPMs is also compared with varying baselines in the form of Bayesian neural networks and heteroscedastic models. Experiments demonstrate that DDPMs outperform the other methods regarding a variety of accuracy metrics. Besides, it offers the advantage of providing access to the complete distributions of uncertainties rather than providing a set of parameters. As such, it can yield realistic and detailed samples from the distribution of solutions. All source codes and datasets utilized in this study are publicly available.

In his "ship of state" allegory (\textit{Republic}, Book VI, 488) Plato poses a question -- how can a crew of sailors presumed to know little about the art of navigation recognize the true pilot among them? The allegory argues that a simple majority voting procedure cannot safely determine who is most qualified to pilot a ship when the voting members are ignorant or biased. We formalize Plato's concerns by considering the problem in AI safety of monitoring noisy AI agents in unsupervised settings. An algorithm evaluating AI agents using unlabeled data would be subject to the evaluation dilemma - how would we know the evaluation algorithm was correct itself? This endless validation chain can be avoided by considering purely algebraic functions of the observed responses. We can construct complete postulates than can prove or disprove the logical consistency of any grading algorithm. A complete set of postulates exists whenever we are evaluating $N$ experts that took $T$ tests with $Q$ questions with $R$ responses each. We discuss evaluating binary classifiers that have taken a single test - the $(N,T=1,Q,R=2)$ tests. We show how some of the postulates have been previously identified in the ML literature but not recognized as such - the \textbf{agreement equations} of Platanios. The complete postulates for pair correlated binary classifiers are considered and we show how it allows for error correlations to be quickly calculated. An algebraic evaluator based on the assumption that the ensemble is error independent is compared with grading by majority voting on evaluations using the \uciadult and and \texttt{two-norm} datasets. Throughout, we demonstrate how the formalism of logical consistency via algebraic postulates of evaluation can help increase the safety of machines using AI algorithms.

We consider two-player zero-sum stochastic games and propose a two-timescale $Q$-learning algorithm with function approximation that is payoff-based, convergent, rational, and symmetric between the two players. In two-timescale $Q$-learning, the fast-timescale iterates are updated in spirit to the stochastic gradient descent and the slow-timescale iterates (which we use to compute the policies) are updated by taking a convex combination between its previous iterate and the latest fast-timescale iterate. Introducing the slow timescale as well as its update equation marks as our main algorithmic novelty. In the special case of linear function approximation, we establish, to the best of our knowledge, the first last-iterate finite-sample bound for payoff-based independent learning dynamics of these types. The result implies a polynomial sample complexity to find a Nash equilibrium in such stochastic games. To establish the results, we model our proposed algorithm as a two-timescale stochastic approximation and derive the finite-sample bound through a Lyapunov-based approach. The key novelty lies in constructing a valid Lyapunov function to capture the evolution of the slow-timescale iterates. Specifically, through a change of variable, we show that the update equation of the slow-timescale iterates resembles the classical smoothed best-response dynamics, where the regularized Nash gap serves as a valid Lyapunov function. This insight enables us to construct a valid Lyapunov function via a generalized variant of the Moreau envelope of the regularized Nash gap. The construction of our Lyapunov function might be of broad independent interest in studying the behavior of stochastic approximation algorithms.

Here we consider the problem of denoising features associated to complex data, modeled as signals on a graph, via a smoothness prior. This is motivated in part by settings such as single-cell RNA where the data is very high-dimensional, but its structure can be captured via an affinity graph. This allows us to utilize ideas from graph signal processing. In particular, we present algorithms for the cases where the signal is perturbed by Gaussian noise, dropout, and uniformly distributed noise. The signals are assumed to follow a prior distribution defined in the frequency domain which favors signals which are smooth across the edges of the graph. By pairing this prior distribution with our three models of noise generation, we propose Maximum A Posteriori (M.A.P.) estimates of the true signal in the presence of noisy data and provide algorithms for computing the M.A.P. Finally, we demonstrate the algorithms' ability to effectively restore signals from white noise on image data and from severe dropout in single-cell RNA sequence data.

Bayesian causal discovery aims to infer the posterior distribution over causal models from observed data, quantifying epistemic uncertainty and benefiting downstream tasks. However, computational challenges arise due to joint inference over combinatorial space of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) and nonlinear functions. Despite recent progress towards efficient posterior inference over DAGs, existing methods are either limited to variational inference on node permutation matrices for linear causal models, leading to compromised inference accuracy, or continuous relaxation of adjacency matrices constrained by a DAG regularizer, which cannot ensure resulting graphs are DAGs. In this work, we introduce a scalable Bayesian causal discovery framework based on a combination of stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SG-MCMC) and Variational Inference (VI) that overcomes these limitations. Our approach directly samples DAGs from the posterior without requiring any DAG regularization, simultaneously draws function parameter samples and is applicable to both linear and nonlinear causal models. To enable our approach, we derive a novel equivalence to the permutation-based DAG learning, which opens up possibilities of using any relaxed gradient estimator defined over permutations. To our knowledge, this is the first framework applying gradient-based MCMC sampling for causal discovery. Empirical evaluation on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate our approach's effectiveness compared to state-of-the-art baselines.

Generating samples from a complex (e.g., non-Gaussian, high-dimensional) probability distribution is a core computational challenge in diverse applications, ranging from computational statistics and machine learning to molecular simulation. A recurring setting is where the density ρ of the target distribution is specified up to a normalizing constant--for example, in Bayesian modeling, where ρ represents the posterior density. Here, evaluations of the score log ρ are often available as well, even for complex statistical models [Villa et al., 2021]. Alternatively, many new methods enable effective score estimation from data, without explicit density estimation; examples include score estimation from time series observations in chaotic dynamical systems [Chandramoorthy and Wang, 2022, Ni, 2020] and score-based modeling of image distributions [Song et al., 2020b,a]. In these settings, transport or "flow"-driven algorithms for generating samples have seen extensive success. The central idea is to construct a transport map from a simple, prescribed source distribution to the target distribution of interest. One class of transport approaches, e.g., as represented by variational inference with normalizing flows, involves constructing a parametric class of invertible maps and minimizing some statistical divergence between the pushforward (see Section 2) of the source by a member of this class and the target. A different, essentially nonparametric, class of transport approaches are based on particle systems, e.g., Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD)

Estimating the prevalence of a medical condition, or the proportion of the population in which it occurs, is a fundamental problem in healthcare and public health. Accurate estimates of the relative prevalence across groups -- capturing, for example, that a condition affects women more frequently than men -- facilitate effective and equitable health policy which prioritizes groups who are disproportionately affected by a condition. However, it is difficult to estimate relative prevalence when a medical condition is underreported. In this work, we provide a method for accurately estimating the relative prevalence of underreported medical conditions, building upon the positive unlabeled learning framework. We show that under the commonly made covariate shift assumption -- i.e., that the probability of having a disease conditional on symptoms remains constant across groups -- we can recover the relative prevalence, even without restrictive assumptions commonly made in positive unlabeled learning and even if it is impossible to recover the absolute prevalence. We conduct experiments on synthetic and real health data which demonstrate our method's ability to recover the relative prevalence more accurately than do baselines, and demonstrate the method's robustness to plausible violations of the covariate shift assumption. We conclude by illustrating the applicability of our method to case studies of intimate partner violence and hate speech.

Simulation-based inference (SBI) is constantly in search of more expressive algorithms for accurately inferring the parameters of complex models from noisy data. We present consistency models for neural posterior estimation (CMPE), a new free-form conditional sampler for scalable, fast, and amortized SBI with generative neural networks. CMPE combines the advantages of normalizing flows and flow matching methods into a single generative architecture: It essentially distills a continuous probability flow and enables rapid few-shot inference with an unconstrained architecture that can be tailored to the structure of the estimation problem. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that CMPE not only outperforms current state-of-the-art algorithms on three hard low-dimensional problems, but also achieves competitive performance in a high-dimensional Bayesian denoising experiment and in estimating a computationally demanding multi-scale model of tumor spheroid growth.