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 Uncertainty


Individual Fairness under Uncertainty

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Algorithmic fairness, the research field of making machine learning (ML) algorithms fair, is an established area in ML. As ML technologies expand their application domains, including ones with high societal impact, it becomes essential to take fairness into consideration during the building of ML systems. Yet, despite its wide range of socially sensitive applications, most work treats the issue of algorithmic bias as an intrinsic property of supervised learning, i.e., the class label is given as a precondition. Unlike prior studies in fairness, we propose an individual fairness measure and a corresponding algorithm that deal with the challenges of uncertainty arising from censorship in class labels, while enforcing similar individuals to be treated similarly from a ranking perspective, free of the Lipschitz condition in the conventional individual fairness definition. We argue that this perspective represents a more realistic model of fairness research for real-world application deployment and show how learning with such a relaxed precondition draws new insights that better explains algorithmic fairness. We conducted experiments on four real-world datasets to evaluate our proposed method compared to other fairness models, demonstrating its superiority in minimizing discrimination while maintaining predictive performance with uncertainty present.


Neural Likelihood Surfaces for Spatial Processes with Computationally Intensive or Intractable Likelihoods

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In spatial statistics, fast and accurate parameter estimation, coupled with a reliable means of uncertainty quantification, can be challenging when fitting a spatial process to real-world data because the likelihood function might be slow to evaluate or wholly intractable. In this work, we propose using convolutional neural networks to learn the likelihood function of a spatial process. Through a specifically designed classification task, our neural network implicitly learns the likelihood function, even in situations where the exact likelihood is not explicitly available. Once trained on the classification task, our neural network is calibrated using Platt scaling which improves the accuracy of the neural likelihood surfaces. To demonstrate our approach, we compare neural likelihood surfaces and the resulting maximum likelihood estimates and approximate confidence regions with the equivalent for exact or approximate likelihood for two different spatial processes: a Gaussian process and a Brown-Resnick process which have computationally intensive and intractable likelihoods, respectively. We conclude that our method provides fast and accurate parameter estimation with a reliable method of uncertainty quantification in situations where standard methods are either undesirably slow or inaccurate. The method is applicable to any spatial process on a grid from which fast simulations are available.


Risk-aware Meta-level Decision Making for Exploration Under Uncertainty

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Robotic exploration of unknown environments is fundamentally a problem of decision making under uncertainty where the robot must account for uncertainty in sensor measurements, localization, action execution, as well as many other factors. For large-scale exploration applications, autonomous systems must overcome the challenges of sequentially deciding which areas of the environment are valuable to explore while safely evaluating the risks associated with obstacles and hazardous terrain. In this work, we propose a risk-aware meta-level decision making framework to balance the tradeoffs associated with local and global exploration. Meta-level decision making builds upon classical hierarchical coverage planners by switching between local and global policies with the overall objective of selecting the policy that is most likely to maximize reward in a stochastic environment. We use information about the environment history, traversability risk, and kinodynamic constraints to reason about the probability of successful policy execution to switch between local and global policies. We have validated our solution in both simulation and on a variety of large-scale real world hardware tests. Our results show that by balancing local and global exploration we are able to significantly explore large-scale environments more efficiently.


Physics-Aware Multifidelity Bayesian Optimization: a Generalized Formulation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Optimization problems are ubiquitous in science and engineering applications [1]. Those also include the support to engineering tasks that are in increasing demand to meet sustainability goals such as the identification of the best design configurations to maximize the performance and minimize the environmental impact of novel engineering solutions, and the detection and identification of damages or faults to monitor the health condition of complex systems to maximize their useful life and minimize waste of resources. Over the last decades, the increase of computing power and the advances in computational modelling capabilities made available computer-based models for the accurate analysis and simulation of complex physical systems. This is the case of computational schemes for the numerical solution of governing partial differential equations as computational fluid dynamic solvers to represent viscous fluids, and finite element methods for the analysis of mechanical structures, heath transfer and electromagnetic phenomena. In principle, this computer-based representations can provide a remarkable contribution to enhance the search and identification task in simulation-based optimization. Unfortunately, the extensive adoption of these high-fidelity models during the optimization procedure is hampered by the significant computational cost and time required for their evaluation, potentially in the order of months for a single evaluation on high performance computing platforms. This issue becomes more challenging for many-query optimization problems where the demand for model evaluations grows exponentially with the number of parameters to optimize. The use of low-fidelity models constitutes a popular approach to reduce the computational resources associated with the solution of optimization problems. Low-fidelity representations introduce assumptions about the physics and/or approximate the solution of the governing equations, and relief the computational expenditure for the evaluation of the response of the system.


Consciousness as a logically consistent and prognostic model of reality

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The work demonstrates that brain might reflect the external world causal relationships in the form of a logically consistent and prognostic model of reality, which shows up as consciousness. The paper analyses and solves the problem of statistical ambiguity and provides a formal model of causal relationships as probabilistic maximally specific rules. We suppose that brain makes all possible inferences from causal relationships. We prove that the suggested formal model has a property of an unambiguous inference: from consistent premises we infer a consistent conclusion. It enables a set of all inferences to form a consistent model of the perceived world. Causal relationships may create fixed points of cyclic inter-predictable properties. We consider the "natural" classification introduced by John St. Mill and demonstrate that a variety of fixed points of the objects' attributes forms a "natural" classification of the external world. Then we consider notions of "natural" categories and causal models of categories, introduced by Eleanor Rosch and Bob Rehder and demonstrate that fixed points of causal relationships between objects attributes, which we perceive, formalize these notions. If the "natural" classification describes the objects of the external world, and "natural" concepts the perception of these objects, then the theory of integrated information, introduced by G. Tononi, describes the information processes of the brain for "natural" concepts formation that reflects the "natural" classification. We argue that integrated information provides high accuracy of the objects identification. A computer-based experiment is provided that illustrates fixed points formation for coded digits.


PCRDiffusion: Diffusion Probabilistic Models for Point Cloud Registration

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose a new framework that formulates point cloud registration as a denoising diffusion process from noisy transformation to object transformation. During training stage, object transformation diffuses from ground-truth transformation to random distribution, and the model learns to reverse this noising process. In sampling stage, the model refines randomly generated transformation to the output result in a progressive way. We derive the variational bound in closed form for training and provide implementations of the model. Our work provides the following crucial findings: (i) In contrast to most existing methods, our framework, Diffusion Probabilistic Models for Point Cloud Registration (PCRDiffusion) does not require repeatedly update source point cloud to refine the predicted transformation. (ii) Point cloud registration, one of the representative discriminative tasks, can be solved by a generative way and the unified probabilistic formulation. Finally, we discuss and provide an outlook on the application of diffusion model in different scenarios for point cloud registration. Experimental results demonstrate that our model achieves competitive performance in point cloud registration. In correspondence-free and correspondence-based scenarios, PCRDifussion can both achieve exceeding 50\% performance improvements.


A Representative Study on Human Detection of Artificially Generated Media Across Countries

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

AI-generated media has become a threat to our digital society as we know it. These forgeries can be created automatically and on a large scale based on publicly available technology. Recognizing this challenge, academics and practitioners have proposed a multitude of automatic detection strategies to detect such artificial media. However, in contrast to these technical advances, the human perception of generated media has not been thoroughly studied yet. In this paper, we aim at closing this research gap. We perform the first comprehensive survey into people's ability to detect generated media, spanning three countries (USA, Germany, and China) with 3,002 participants across audio, image, and text media. Our results indicate that state-of-the-art forgeries are almost indistinguishable from "real" media, with the majority of participants simply guessing when asked to rate them as human- or machine-generated. In addition, AI-generated media receive is voted more human like across all media types and all countries. To further understand which factors influence people's ability to detect generated media, we include personal variables, chosen based on a literature review in the domains of deepfake and fake news research. In a regression analysis, we found that generalized trust, cognitive reflection, and self-reported familiarity with deepfakes significantly influence participant's decision across all media categories.


Natural Actor-Critic for Robust Reinforcement Learning with Function Approximation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study robust reinforcement learning (RL) with the goal of determining a well-performing policy that is robust against model mismatch between the training simulator and the testing environment. Previous policy-based robust RL algorithms mainly focus on the tabular setting under uncertainty sets that facilitate robust policy evaluation, but are no longer tractable when the number of states scales up. To this end, we propose two novel uncertainty set formulations, one based on double sampling and the other on an integral probability metric. Both make large-scale robust RL tractable even when one only has access to a simulator. We propose a robust natural actor-critic (RNAC) approach that incorporates the new uncertainty sets and employs function approximation. We provide finite-time convergence guarantees for the proposed RNAC algorithm to the optimal robust policy within the function approximation error. Finally, we demonstrate the robust performance of the policy learned by our proposed RNAC approach in multiple MuJoCo environments and a real-world TurtleBot navigation task.


Misclassification in Automated Content Analysis Causes Bias in Regression. Can We Fix It? Yes We Can!

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Automated classifiers (ACs), often built via supervised machine learning (SML), can categorize large, statistically powerful samples of data ranging from text to images and video, and have become widely popular measurement devices in communication science and related fields. Despite this popularity, even highly accurate classifiers make errors that cause misclassification bias and misleading results in downstream analyses-unless such analyses account for these errors. As we show in a systematic literature review of SML applications, communication scholars largely ignore misclassification bias. In principle, existing statistical methods can use "gold standard" validation data, such as that created by human annotators, to correct misclassification bias and produce consistent estimates. We introduce and test such methods, including a new method we design and implement in the R package misclassificationmodels, via Monte Carlo simulations designed to reveal each method's limitations, which we also release. Based on our results, we recommend our new error correction method as it is versatile and efficient. In sum, automated classifiers, even those below common accuracy standards or making systematic misclassifications, can be useful for measurement with careful study design and appropriate error correction methods.


Fused Extended Two-Way Fixed Effects for Difference-in-Differences with Staggered Adoptions

arXiv.org Machine Learning

To address the bias of the canonical two-way fixed effects estimator for difference-in-differences under staggered adoptions, Wooldridge (2021) proposed the extended two-way fixed effects estimator, which adds many parameters. However, this reduces efficiency. Restricting some of these parameters to be equal helps, but ad hoc restrictions may reintroduce bias. We propose a machine learning estimator with a single tuning parameter, fused extended two-way fixed effects (FETWFE), that enables automatic data-driven selection of these restrictions. We prove that under an appropriate sparsity assumption FETWFE identifies the correct restrictions with probability tending to one. We also prove the consistency, asymptotic normality, and oracle efficiency of FETWFE for two classes of heterogeneous marginal treatment effect estimators under either conditional or marginal parallel trends, and we prove consistency for two classes of conditional average treatment effects under conditional parallel trends. We demonstrate FETWFE in simulation studies and an empirical application.