Differentiable particle filters are an emerging class of sequential Bayesian inference techniques that use neural networks to construct components in state space models. Existing approaches are mostly based on offline supervised training strategies. This leads to the delay of the model deployment and the obtained filters are susceptible to distribution shift of test-time data. In this paper, we propose an online learning framework for differentiable particle filters so that model parameters can be updated as data arrive. The technical constraint is that there is no known ground truth state information in the online inference setting. We address this by adopting an unsupervised loss to construct the online model updating procedure, which involves a sequence of filtering operations for online maximum likelihood-based parameter estimation. We empirically evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed method, and compare it with supervised learning methods in simulation settings including a multivariate linear Gaussian state-space model and a simulated object tracking experiment.

Lifted probabilistic inference exploits symmetries in a probabilistic model to allow for tractable probabilistic inference with respect to domain sizes. To apply lifted inference, a lifted representation has to be obtained, and to do so, the so-called colour passing algorithm is the state of the art. The colour passing algorithm, however, is bound to a specific inference algorithm and we found that it ignores commutativity of factors while constructing a lifted representation. We contribute a modified version of the colour passing algorithm that uses logical variables to construct a lifted representation independent of a specific inference algorithm while at the same time exploiting commutativity of factors during an offline-step. Our proposed algorithm efficiently detects more symmetries than the state of the art and thereby drastically increases compression, yielding significantly faster online query times for probabilistic inference when the resulting model is applied.

Exact Bayesian inference on state-space models~(SSM) is in general untractable, and unfortunately, basic Sequential Monte Carlo~(SMC) methods do not yield correct approximations for complex models. In this paper, we propose a mixed inference algorithm that computes closed-form solutions using belief propagation as much as possible, and falls back to sampling-based SMC methods when exact computations fail. This algorithm thus implements automatic Rao-Blackwellization and is even exact for Gaussian tree models.

The enormous amount of data to be represented using large graphs exceeds in some cases the resources of a conventional computer. Edges in particular can take up a considerable amount of memory as compared to the number of nodes. However, rigorous edge storage might not always be essential to be able to draw the needed conclusions. A similar problem takes records with many variables and attempts to extract the most discernible features. It is said that the ``dimension'' of this data is reduced. Following an approach with the same objective in mind, we can map a graph representation to a $k$-dimensional space and answer queries of neighboring nodes mainly by measuring Euclidean distances. The accuracy of our answers would decrease but would be compensated for by fuzzy logic which gives an idea about the likelihood of error. This method allows for reasonable representation in memory while maintaining a fair amount of useful information, and allows for concise embedding in $k$-dimensional Euclidean space as well as solving some problems without having to decompress the graph. Of particular interest is the case where $k=2$. Promising highly accurate experimental results are obtained and reported.

The Adjusted Rand Index (ARI) is a widely used method for comparing hard clusterings, but requires a choice of random model that is often left implicit. Several recent works have extended the Rand Index to fuzzy clusterings, but the assumptions of the most common random model is difficult to justify in fuzzy settings. We propose a single framework for computing the ARI with three random models that are intuitive and explainable for both hard and fuzzy clusterings, along with the benefit of lower computational complexity. The theory and assumptions of the proposed models are contrasted with the existing permutation model. Computations on synthetic and benchmark data show that each model has distinct behaviour, meaning that accurate model selection is important for the reliability of results.

In supervised learning, automatically assessing the quality of the labels before any learning takes place remains an open research question. In certain particular cases, hypothesis testing procedures have been proposed to assess whether a given instance-label dataset is contaminated with class-conditional label noise, as opposed to uniform label noise. The existing theory builds on the asymptotic properties of the Maximum Likelihood Estimate for parametric logistic regression. However, the parametric assumptions on top of which these approaches are constructed are often too strong and unrealistic in practice. To alleviate this problem, in this paper we propose an alternative path by showing how similar procedures can be followed when the underlying model is a product of Local Maximum Likelihood Estimation that leads to more flexible nonparametric logistic regression models, which in turn are less susceptible to model misspecification. This different view allows for wider applicability of the tests by offering users access to a richer model class. Similarly to existing works, we assume we have access to anchor points which are provided by the users. We introduce the necessary ingredients for the adaptation of the hypothesis tests to the case of nonparametric logistic regression and empirically compare against the parametric approach presenting both synthetic and real-world case studies and discussing the advantages and limitations of the proposed approach.

Evaluating the average causal effect (ACE) of a treatment on an outcome often involves overcoming the challenges posed by confounding factors in observational studies. A traditional approach uses the back-door criterion, seeking adjustment sets to block confounding paths between treatment and outcome. However, this method struggles with unmeasured confounders. As an alternative, the front-door criterion offers a solution, even in the presence of unmeasured confounders between treatment and outcome. This method relies on identifying mediators that are not directly affected by these confounders and that completely mediate the treatment's effect. Here, we introduce novel estimation strategies for the front-door criterion based on the targeted minimum loss-based estimation theory. Our estimators work across diverse scenarios, handling binary, continuous, and multivariate mediators. They leverage data-adaptive machine learning algorithms, minimizing assumptions and ensuring key statistical properties like asymptotic linearity, double-robustness, efficiency, and valid estimates within the target parameter space. We establish conditions under which the nuisance functional estimations ensure the root n-consistency of ACE estimators. Our numerical experiments show the favorable finite sample performance of the proposed estimators. We demonstrate the applicability of these estimators to analyze the effect of early stage academic performance on future yearly income using data from the Finnish Social Science Data Archive.

The identification of the Purkinje conduction system in the heart is a challenging task, yet essential for a correct definition of cardiac digital twins for precision cardiology. Here, we propose a probabilistic approach for identifying the Purkinje network from non-invasive clinical data such as the standard electrocardiogram (ECG). We use cardiac imaging to build an anatomically accurate model of the ventricles; we algorithmically generate a rule-based Purkinje network tailored to the anatomy; we simulate physiological electrocardiograms with a fast model; we identify the geometrical and electrical parameters of the Purkinje-ECG model with Bayesian optimization and approximate Bayesian computation. The proposed approach is inherently probabilistic and generates a population of plausible Purkinje networks, all fitting the ECG within a given tolerance. In this way, we can estimate the uncertainty of the parameters, thus providing reliable predictions. We test our methodology in physiological and pathological scenarios, showing that we are able to accurately recover the ECG with our model. We propagate the uncertainty in the Purkinje network parameters in a simulation of conduction system pacing therapy. Our methodology is a step forward in creation of digital twins from non-invasive data in precision medicine. An open source implementation can be found at http://github.com/fsahli/purkinje-learning

Design optimisation potentially leads to lightweight aircraft structures with lower environmental impact. Due to the high number of design variables and constraints, these problems are ordinarily solved using gradient-based optimisation methods, leading to a local solution in the design space while the global space is neglected. Bayesian Optimisation is a promising path towards sample-efficient, global optimisation based on probabilistic surrogate models. While Bayesian optimisation methods have demonstrated their strength for problems with a low number of design variables, the scalability to high-dimensional problems while incorporating large-scale constraints is still lacking. Especially in aeroelastic tailoring where directional stiffness properties are embodied into the structural design of aircraft, to control aeroelastic deformations and to increase the aerodynamic and structural performance, the safe operation of the system needs to be ensured by involving constraints resulting from different analysis disciplines. Hence, a global design space search becomes even more challenging. The present study attempts to tackle the problem by using high-dimensional Bayesian Optimisation in combination with a dimensionality reduction approach to solve the optimisation problem occurring in aeroelastic tailoring, presenting a novel approach for high-dimensional problems with large-scale constraints. Experiments on well-known benchmark cases with black-box constraints show that the proposed approach can incorporate large-scale constraints.

In this study, we propose an approach for predicting rare events by exploiting time series in coevolution. Our approach involves a weighted autologistic regression model, where we leverage the temporal behavior of the data to enhance predictive capabilities. By addressing the issue of imbalanced datasets, we establish constraints leading to weight estimation and to improved performance. Evaluation on synthetic and real-world datasets confirms that our approach outperform state-of-the-art of predicting home equipment failure methods.