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 Uncertainty


Review of Unsupervised POS Tagging and Its Implications on Language Acquisition

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

An ability that underlies human syntactic knowledge is determining which words can appear in the similar structures (i.e. grouping words by their syntactic categories). These groupings enable humans to combine structures in order to communicate complex meanings. A foundational question is how do children acquire this ability underlying syntactic knowledge. In exploring this process, we will review various engineering approaches whose goal is similar to that of a child's -- without prior syntactic knowledge, correctly identify the parts of speech (POS) of the words in a sample of text. In reviewing these unsupervised tagging efforts, we will discuss common themes that support the advances in the models and their relevance for language acquisition. For example, we discuss how each model judges success (evaluation metrics), the "additional information" that constrains the POS learning (such as orthographic information), and the context used to determine POS (only previous word, words before and after the target, etc). The identified themes pave the way for future investigations into the cognitive processes that underpin the acquisition of syntactic categories and provide a useful layout of current state of the art unsupervised POS tagging models.


Bayesian Metaplasticity from Synaptic Uncertainty

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Catastrophic forgetting remains a challenge for neural networks, especially in lifelong learning scenarios. In this study, we introduce MEtaplasticity from Synaptic Uncertainty (MESU), inspired by metaplasticity and Bayesian inference principles. MESU harnesses synaptic uncertainty to retain information over time, with its update rule closely approximating the diagonal Newton's method for synaptic updates. Through continual learning experiments on permuted MNIST tasks, we demonstrate MESU's remarkable capability to maintain learning performance across 100 tasks without the need of explicit task boundaries.


Bayesian Estimate of Mean Proper Scores for Diversity-Enhanced Active Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The effectiveness of active learning largely depends on the sampling efficiency of the acquisition function. Expected Loss Reduction (ELR) focuses on a Bayesian estimate of the reduction in classification error, and more general costs fit in the same framework. We propose Bayesian Estimate of Mean Proper Scores (BEMPS) to estimate the increase in strictly proper scores such as log probability or negative mean square error within this framework. We also prove convergence results for this general class of costs. To facilitate better experimentation with the new acquisition functions, we develop a complementary batch AL algorithm that encourages diversity in the vector of expected changes in scores for unlabeled data. To allow high-performance classifiers, we combine deep ensembles, and dynamic validation set construction on pretrained models, and further speed up the ensemble process with the idea of Monte Carlo Dropout. Extensive experiments on both texts and images show that the use of mean square error and log probability with BEMPS yields robust acquisition functions and well-calibrated classifiers, and consistently outperforms the others tested. The advantages of BEMPS over the others are further supported by a set of qualitative analyses, where we visualise their sampling behaviour using data maps and t-SNE plots.


Deep Generative Models for Detector Signature Simulation: An Analytical Taxonomy

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In modern collider experiments, the quest to explore fundamental interactions between elementary particles has reached unparalleled levels of precision. Signatures from particle physics detectors are low-level objects encoding the physics of collisions. The complete simulation of them in a detector is a memory and storage-intensive task. To address this computational bottleneck in particle physics, "Fast Simulation" has been introduced and refined over the years. The field has seen a surge in interest in surrogate modeling the detector simulation, fueled by the advancements in deep generative models. These models aim to generate responses that are statistically identical to the observed data. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive and exhaustive taxonomic review of the existing literature on the simulation of detector signatures from both methodological and application-wise perspectives. Initially, we formulate the problem of detector signature simulation and discuss its different variations that can be unified. Next, we classify the state-of-the-art methods into four distinct categories based on their underlying model architectures, summarizing their respective generation strategies. We then identify and discuss three key application areas. Finally, we shed light on the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead in detector signature simulation, setting the stage for future research and development.


Joint State Estimation and Noise Identification Based on Variational Optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this article, the state estimation problems with unknown process noise and measurement noise covariances for both linear and nonlinear systems are considered. By formulating the joint estimation of system state and noise parameters into an optimization problem, a novel adaptive Kalman filter method based on conjugate-computation variational inference, referred to as CVIAKF, is proposed to approximate the joint posterior probability density function of the latent variables. Unlike the existing adaptive Kalman filter methods utilizing variational inference in natural-parameter space, CVIAKF performs optimization in expectation-parameter space, resulting in a faster and simpler solution. Meanwhile, CVIAKF divides optimization objectives into conjugate and non-conjugate parts of nonlinear dynamical models, whereas conjugate computations and stochastic mirror-descent are applied, respectively. Remarkably, the reparameterization trick is used to reduce the variance of stochastic gradients of the non-conjugate parts. The effectiveness of CVIAKF is validated through synthetic and real-world datasets of maneuvering target tracking.


Learning Differentiable Particle Filter on the Fly

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Differentiable particle filters are an emerging class of sequential Bayesian inference techniques that use neural networks to construct components in state space models. Existing approaches are mostly based on offline supervised training strategies. This leads to the delay of the model deployment and the obtained filters are susceptible to distribution shift of test-time data. In this paper, we propose an online learning framework for differentiable particle filters so that model parameters can be updated as data arrive. The technical constraint is that there is no known ground truth state information in the online inference setting. We address this by adopting an unsupervised loss to construct the online model updating procedure, which involves a sequence of filtering operations for online maximum likelihood-based parameter estimation. We empirically evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed method, and compare it with supervised learning methods in simulation settings including a multivariate linear Gaussian state-space model and a simulated object tracking experiment.


Colour Passing Revisited: Lifted Model Construction with Commutative Factors

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Lifted probabilistic inference exploits symmetries in a probabilistic model to allow for tractable probabilistic inference with respect to domain sizes. To apply lifted inference, a lifted representation has to be obtained, and to do so, the so-called colour passing algorithm is the state of the art. The colour passing algorithm, however, is bound to a specific inference algorithm and we found that it ignores commutativity of factors while constructing a lifted representation. We contribute a modified version of the colour passing algorithm that uses logical variables to construct a lifted representation independent of a specific inference algorithm while at the same time exploiting commutativity of factors during an offline-step. Our proposed algorithm efficiently detects more symmetries than the state of the art and thereby drastically increases compression, yielding significantly faster online query times for probabilistic inference when the resulting model is applied.


Automatic Rao-Blackwellization for Sequential Monte Carlo with Belief Propagation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Exact Bayesian inference on state-space models~(SSM) is in general untractable, and unfortunately, basic Sequential Monte Carlo~(SMC) methods do not yield correct approximations for complex models. In this paper, we propose a mixed inference algorithm that computes closed-form solutions using belief propagation as much as possible, and falls back to sampling-based SMC methods when exact computations fail. This algorithm thus implements automatic Rao-Blackwellization and is even exact for Gaussian tree models.


Concise Fuzzy Planar Embedding of Graphs: a Dimensionality Reduction Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The enormous amount of data to be represented using large graphs exceeds in some cases the resources of a conventional computer. Edges in particular can take up a considerable amount of memory as compared to the number of nodes. However, rigorous edge storage might not always be essential to be able to draw the needed conclusions. A similar problem takes records with many variables and attempts to extract the most discernible features. It is said that the ``dimension'' of this data is reduced. Following an approach with the same objective in mind, we can map a graph representation to a $k$-dimensional space and answer queries of neighboring nodes mainly by measuring Euclidean distances. The accuracy of our answers would decrease but would be compensated for by fuzzy logic which gives an idea about the likelihood of error. This method allows for reasonable representation in memory while maintaining a fair amount of useful information, and allows for concise embedding in $k$-dimensional Euclidean space as well as solving some problems without having to decompress the graph. Of particular interest is the case where $k=2$. Promising highly accurate experimental results are obtained and reported.


Random Models for Fuzzy Clustering Similarity Measures

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The Adjusted Rand Index (ARI) is a widely used method for comparing hard clusterings, but requires a choice of random model that is often left implicit. Several recent works have extended the Rand Index to fuzzy clusterings, but the assumptions of the most common random model is difficult to justify in fuzzy settings. We propose a single framework for computing the ARI with three random models that are intuitive and explainable for both hard and fuzzy clusterings, along with the benefit of lower computational complexity. The theory and assumptions of the proposed models are contrasted with the existing permutation model. Computations on synthetic and benchmark data show that each model has distinct behaviour, meaning that accurate model selection is important for the reliability of results.