In many application settings involving networks, such as messages between users of an on-line social network or transactions between traders in financial markets, the observed data consist of timestamped relational events, which form a continuoustime network. We propose the Community Hawkes Independent Pairs (CHIP) generative model for such networks. We show that applying spectral clustering to an aggregated adjacency matrix constructed from the CHIP model provides consistent community detection for a growing number of nodes and time duration. We also develop consistent and computationally efficient estimators for the model parameters. We demonstrate that our proposed CHIP model and estimation procedure scales to large networks with tens of thousands of nodes and provides superior fits than existing continuous-time network models on several real networks.

Bayesian decision theory outlines a rigorous framework for making optimal decisions based on maximizing expected utility over a model posterior. However, practitioners often do not have access to the full posterior and resort to approximate inference strategies. In such cases, taking the eventual decision-making task into account while performing the inference allows for calibrating the posterior approximation to maximize the utility. We present an automatic pipeline that co-opts continuous utilities into variational inference algorithms to account for decision-making. We provide practical strategies for approximating and maximizing the gain, and empirically demonstrate consistent improvement when calibrating approximations for specific utilities.

We implement gradient-based variational inference routines for Wishart and inverse Wishart processes, which we apply as Bayesian models for the dynamic, heteroskedastic covariance matrix of a multivariate time series. The Wishart and inverse Wishart processes are constructed from i.i.d. Gaussian processes, existing variational inference algorithms for which form the basis of our approach. These methods are easy to implement as a black-box and scale favorably with the length of the time series, however, they fail in the case of the Wishart process, an issue we resolve with a simple modification into an additive white noise parameterization of the model. This modification is also key to implementing a factored variant of the construction, allowing inference to additionally scale to high-dimensional covariance matrices. Through experimentation, we demonstrate that some (but not all) model variants outperform multivariate GARCH when forecasting the covariances of returns on financial instruments.

This work explores the challenging problem of molecule design by framing it as a conditional generative modeling task, where target biological properties or desired chemical constraints serve as conditioning variables. We propose the Latent Prompt Transformer (LPT), a novel generative model comprising three components: (1) a latent vector with a learnable prior distribution modeled by a neural transformation of Gaussian white noise; (2) a molecule generation model based on a causal Transformer, which uses the latent vector as a prompt; and (3) a property prediction model that predicts a molecule's target properties and/or constraint values using the latent prompt. LPT can be learned by maximum likelihood estimation on molecule-property pairs. During property optimization, the latent prompt is inferred from target properties and constraints through posterior sampling and then used to guide the autoregressive molecule generation. After initial training on existing molecules and their properties, we adopt an online learning algorithm to progressively shift the model distribution towards regions that support desired target properties. Experiments demonstrate that LPT not only effectively discovers useful molecules across single-objective, multi-objective, and structure-constrained optimization tasks, but also exhibits strong sample efficiency.

Causal models are crucial for understanding complex systems and identifying causal relationships among variables. Even though causal models are extremely popular, conditional probability calculation of formulas involving interventions pose significant challenges. In case of Causal Bayesian Networks (CBNs), Pearl assumes autonomy of mechanisms that determine interventions to calculate a range of probabilities. We show that by making simple yet often realistic independence assumptions, it is possible to uniquely estimate the probability of an interventional formula (including the well-studied notions of probability of sufficiency and necessity). We discuss when these assumptions are appropriate. Importantly, in many cases of interest, when the assumptions are appropriate, these probability estimates can be evaluated using observational data, which carries immense significance in scenarios where conducting experiments is impractical or unfeasible.

We focus on a stochastic learning model where the learner observes a finite set of training examples and the output of the learning process is a data-dependent distribution over a space of hypotheses. The learned data-dependent distribution is then used to make randomized predictions, and the high-level theme addressed here is guaranteeing the quality of predictions on examples that were not seen during training, i.e. generalization. In this setting the unknown quantity of interest is the expected risk of the data-dependent randomized predictor, for which upper bounds can be derived via a PAC-Bayes analysis, leading to PAC-Bayes bounds. Specifically, we present a basic PAC-Bayes inequality for stochastic kernels, from which one may derive extensions of various known PAC-Bayes bounds as well as novel bounds. We clarify the role of the requirements of fixed'data-free' priors, bounded losses, and i.i.d.

We focus on a stochastic learning model where the learner observes a finite set of training examples and the output of the learning process is a data-dependent distribution over a space of hypotheses. The learned data-dependent distribution is then used to make randomized predictions, and the high-level theme addressed here is guaranteeing the quality of predictions on examples that were not seen during training, i.e. generalization. In this setting the unknown quantity of interest is the expected risk of the data-dependent randomized predictor, for which upper bounds can be derived via a PAC-Bayes analysis, leading to PAC-Bayes bounds. Specifically, we present a basic PAC-Bayes inequality for stochastic kernels, from which one may derive extensions of various known PAC-Bayes bounds as well as novel bounds. We clarify the role of the requirements of fixed'data-free' priors, bounded losses, and i.i.d.

Scientific modeling applications often require estimating a distribution of parameters consistent with a dataset of observations--an inference task also known as source distribution estimation. This problem can be ill-posed, however, since many different source distributions might produce the same distribution of dataconsistent simulations. To make a principled choice among many equally valid sources, we propose an approach which targets the maximum entropy distribution, i.e., prioritizes retaining as much uncertainty as possible. Our method is purely sample-based--leveraging the Sliced-Wasserstein distance to measure the discrepancy between the dataset and simulations--and thus suitable for simulators with intractable likelihoods. We benchmark our method on several tasks, and show that it can recover source distributions with substantially higher entropy than recent source estimation methods, without sacrificing the fidelity of the simulations. Finally, to demonstrate the utility of our approach, we infer source distributions for parameters of the Hodgkin-Huxley model from experimental datasets with hundreds of single-neuron measurements. In summary, we propose a principled method for inferring source distributions of scientific simulator parameters while retaining as much uncertainty as possible.

Many real-world data represent sequences of interdependent events unfolding over time. They can be modeled naturally as realizations of a point process. Despite many potential applications, existing point process models are limited in their ability to capture complex patterns of interaction. Hawkes processes admit many efficient inference algorithms, but are limited to mutually excitatory effects. Nonlinear Hawkes processes allow for more complex influence patterns, but for their estimation it is typically necessary to resort to discrete-time approximations that may yield poor generative models. In this paper, we introduce the first general class of Bayesian point process models extended with a nonlinear component that allows both excitatory and inhibitory relationships in continuous time. We derive a fully Bayesian inference algorithm for these processes using Pólya-Gamma augmentation and Poisson thinning. We evaluate the proposed model on single and multi-neuronal spike train recordings. Results demonstrate that the proposed model, unlike existing point process models, can generate biologically-plausible spike trains, while still achieving competitive predictive likelihoods.

A key challenge in crowdsourcing is inferring the ground truth from noisy and unreliable data. To do so, existing approaches rely on collecting redundant information from the crowd, and aggregating it with some probabilistic method. However, oftentimes such methods are computationally inefficient, are restricted to some specific settings, or lack theoretical guarantees. In this paper, we revisit the problem of binary classification from crowdsourced data. Specifically we propose Streaming Bayesian Inference for Crowdsourcing (SBIC), a new algorithm that does not suffer from any of these limitations. First, SBIC has low complexity and can be used in a real-time online setting. Second, SBIC has the same accuracy as the best state-of-the-art algorithms in all settings. Third, SBIC has provable asymptotic guarantees both in the online and offline settings.