Hawkes processes are a class of point processes that have the ability to model the self- and mutual-exciting phenomena. Although the classic Hawkes processes cover a wide range of applications, their expressive ability is limited due to three key hypotheses: parametric, linear and homogeneous. Recent work has attempted to address these limitations separately. This work aims to overcome all three assumptions simultaneously by proposing the flexible state-switching Hawkes processes: a flexible, nonlinear and nonhomogeneous variant where a state process is incorporated to interact with the point processes. The proposed model empowers Hawkes processes to be applied to time-varying systems. For inference, we utilize the latent variable augmentation technique to design two efficient Bayesian inference algorithms: Gibbs sampler and mean-field variational inference, with analytical iterative updates to estimate the posterior. In experiments, our model achieves superior performance compared to the state-of-the-art competitors.

Bayesian optimization (BO) conventionally relies on handcrafted acquisition functions (AFs) to sequentially determine the sample points. However, it has been widely observed in practice that the best-performing AF in terms of regret can vary significantly under different types of black-box functions. It has remained a challenge to design one AF that can attain the best performance over a wide variety of black-box functions. This paper aims to attack this challenge through the perspective of reinforced few-shot AF learning (FSAF). Specifically, we first connect the notion of AFs with Q-functions and view a deep Q-network (DQN) as a surrogate differentiable AF. While it serves as a natural idea to combine DQN and an existing few-shot learning method, we identify that such a direct combination does not perform well due to severe overfitting, which is particularly critical in BO due to the need of a versatile sampling policy. To address this, we present a Bayesian variant of DQN with the following three features: (i) It learns a distribution of Q-networks as AFs based on the Kullback-Leibler regularization framework. This inherently provides the uncertainty required in sampling for BO and mitigates overfitting. (ii) For the prior of the Bayesian DQN, we propose to use a demo policy induced by an off-the-shelf AF for better training stability. (iii) On the meta-level, we leverage the meta-loss of Bayesian model-agnostic meta-learning, which serves as a natural companion to the proposed FSAF. Moreover, with the proper design of the Q-networks, FSAF is general-purpose in that it is agnostic to the dimension and the cardinality of the input domain. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that the FSAF achieves comparable or better regrets than the state-of-the-art benchmarks on a wide variety of synthetic and real-world test functions.

Programmatic weak supervision creates models without hand-labeled training data by combining the outputs of noisy, user-written rules and other heuristic labelers. Existing frameworks make the restrictive assumption that labelers output a single class label. Enabling users to create partial labelers that output subsets of possible class labels would greatly expand the expressivity of programmatic weak supervision. We introduce this capability by defining a probabilistic generative model that can estimate the underlying accuracies of multiple noisy partial labelers without ground truth labels. We prove that this class of models is generically identifiable up to label swapping under mild conditions. We also show how to scale up learning to 100k examples in one minute, a 300X speed up compared to a naive implementation. We evaluate our framework on three text classification and six object classification tasks. On text tasks, adding partial labels increases average accuracy by 9.6 percentage points. On image tasks, we show that partial labels allow us to approach some zero-shot object classification problems with programmatic weak supervision by using class attributes as partial labelers. Our framework is able to achieve accuracy comparable to recent embedding-based zero-shot learning methods using only pre-trained attribute detectors

In transfer learning, we wish to make inference about a target population when we have access to data both from the distribution itself, and from a different but related source distribution. We introduce a flexible framework for transfer learning in the context of binary classification, allowing for covariate-dependent relationships between the source and target distributions that are not required to preserve the Bayes decision boundary. Our main contributions are to derive the minimax optimal rates of convergence (up to poly-logarithmic factors) in this problem, and show that the optimal rate can be achieved by an algorithm that adapts to key aspects of the unknown transfer relationship, as well as the smoothness and tail parameters of our distributional classes. This optimal rate turns out to have several regimes, depending on the interplay between the relative sample sizes and the strength of the transfer relationship, and our algorithm achieves optimality by careful, decision tree-based calibration of local nearest-neighbour procedures.

In a typical supervised machine learning setting, the predictions on all test instances are based on a common subset of features discovered during model training. However, using a different subset of features that is most informative for each test instance individually may not only improve prediction accuracy, but also the overall interpretability of the model. At the same time, feature selection methods for classification have been known to be the most effective when many features are irrelevant and/or uncorrelated. In fact, feature selection ignoring correlations between features can lead to poor classification performance. In this work, a Bayesian network is utilized to model feature dependencies. Using the dependency network, a new method is proposed that sequentially selects the best feature to evaluate for each test instance individually, and stops the selection process to make a prediction once it determines that no further improvement can be achieved with respect to classification accuracy. The optimum number of features to acquire and the optimum classification strategy are derived for each test instance. The theoretical properties of the optimum solution are analyzed, and a new algorithm is proposed that takes advantage of these properties to implement a robust and scalable solution for high dimensional settings. The effectiveness, generalizability, and scalability of the proposed method is illustrated on a variety of real-world datasets from diverse application domains.

This Overview, Design Concepts, and Details Protocol (ODD) provides a detailed description of an agent-based model (ABM) that was developed to simulate hospitalizations during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using the descriptions of submodels, provided parameters, and the links to data sources, modelers will be able to replicate the creation and results of this model.

The random coefficient logistic demand model of Berry et al. (1995) (henceforth BLP) has been a workhorse of the New Empirical Industrial Organization literature, allowing for varied substitution patterns across products, and accounting for endogeneity of price. The reliability of its estimation has been the subject of rigorous debate (Nevo, 2000; Conlon and Gortmaker, 2020; Knittel and Metaxoglou, 2014), and the estimator itself has been the study of many proposed advances in econometric techniques as a sophisticated yet widely used structural model (Hong et al., 2020; Forneron and Ng, 2020). The most common implementation of the BLP estimator involves the use of a nested fixed point (NFP) as an inner loop within an outer loop of GMM estimation, although we acknowledge the Mathematical Programming with Equilibrium Constraints (MPEC) approach of Dubé et al. (2012), which is beyond the scope of this paper. Dubé et al. (2012) and Conlon and Gortmaker (2020) find that derivative-free optimization algorithms such as the Nelder-Meade or simplex algorithms often fail to converge or converge to the wrong solution. As such, the literature has settled on the use of analytical derivatives with a derivative-based optimization algorithm such as L-BFGS. Nevo (2000) provides the analytical derivative for demand-only (DO) BLP in detail, and Conlon and Gortmaker (2020) indicate that the same is possible for demand-and-supply (DS) BLP, although it involves tensor products.

Although deep learning models have driven state-of-the-art performance on a wide array of tasks, they are prone to learning spurious correlations that should not be learned as predictive clues. To mitigate this problem, we propose a causality-based training framework to reduce the spurious correlations caused by observable confounders. We give theoretical analysis on the underlying general Structural Causal Model (SCM) and propose to perform Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) on the interventional distribution instead of the observational distribution, namely Counterfactual Maximum Likelihood Estimation (CMLE). As the interventional distribution, in general, is hidden from the observational data, we then derive two different upper bounds of the expected negative log-likelihood and propose two general algorithms, Implicit CMLE and Explicit CMLE, for causal predictions of deep learning models using observational data. We conduct experiments on two real-world tasks: Natural Language Inference (NLI) and Image Captioning. The results show that CMLE methods outperform the regular MLE method in terms of out-of-domain generalization performance and reducing spurious correlations, while maintaining comparable performance on the regular evaluations.

In this paper, we investigate the question: Given a small number of datapoints, for example N = 30, how tight can PAC-Bayes and test set bounds be made? For such small datasets, test set bounds adversely affect generalisation performance by discarding data. In this setting, PAC-Bayes bounds are especially attractive, due to their ability to use all the data to simultaneously learn a posterior and bound its generalisation risk. We focus on the case of i.i.d. data with a bounded loss and consider the generic PAC-Bayes theorem of Germain et al. (2009) and Begin et al. (2016). While their theorem is known to recover many existing PAC-Bayes bounds, it is unclear what the tightest bound derivable from their framework is. Surprisingly, we show that for a fixed learning algorithm and dataset, the tightest bound of this form coincides with the tightest bound of the more restrictive family of bounds considered in Catoni (2007). In contrast, in the more natural case of distributions over datasets, we give examples (both analytic and numerical) showing that the family of bounds in Catoni (2007) can be suboptimal. Within the proof framework of Germain et al. (2009) and Begin et al. (2016), we establish a lower bound on the best bound achievable in expectation, which recovers the Chernoff test set bound in the case when the posterior is equal to the prior. Finally, to illustrate how tight these bounds can potentially be, we study a synthetic one-dimensional classification task in which it is feasible to meta-learn both the prior and the form of the bound to obtain the tightest PAC-Bayes and test set bounds possible. We find that in this simple, controlled scenario, PAC-Bayes bounds are surprisingly competitive with comparable, commonly used Chernoff test set bounds. However, the sharpest test set bounds still lead to better guarantees on the generalisation error than the PAC-Bayes bounds we consider.

While causal models are becoming one of the mainstays of machine learning, the problem of uncertainty quantification in causal inference remains challenging. In this paper, we study the causal data fusion problem, where datasets pertaining to multiple causal graphs are combined to estimate the average treatment effect of a target variable. As data arises from multiple sources and can vary in quality and quantity, principled uncertainty quantification becomes essential. To that end, we introduce Bayesian Interventional Mean Processes, a framework which combines ideas from probabilistic integration and kernel mean embeddings to represent interventional distributions in the reproducing kernel Hilbert space, while taking into account the uncertainty within each causal graph. To demonstrate the utility of our uncertainty estimation, we apply our method to the Causal Bayesian Optimisation task and show improvements over state-of-the-art methods.