Under the Bayesian brain hypothesis, behavioural variations can be attributed to different priors over generative model parameters. This provides a formal explanation for why individuals exhibit inconsistent behavioural preferences when confronted with similar choices. For example, greedy preferences are a consequence of confident (or precise) beliefs over certain outcomes. Here, we offer an alternative account of behavioural variability using R\'enyi divergences and their associated variational bounds. R\'enyi bounds are analogous to the variational free energy (or evidence lower bound) and can be derived under the same assumptions. Importantly, these bounds provide a formal way to establish behavioural differences through an $\alpha$ parameter, given fixed priors. This rests on changes in $\alpha$ that alter the bound (on a continuous scale), inducing different posterior estimates and consequent variations in behaviour. Thus, it looks as if individuals have different priors, and have reached different conclusions. More specifically, $\alpha \to 0^{+}$ optimisation leads to mass-covering variational estimates and increased variability in choice behaviour. Furthermore, $\alpha \to + \infty$ optimisation leads to mass-seeking variational posteriors and greedy preferences. We exemplify this formulation through simulations of the multi-armed bandit task. We note that these $\alpha$ parameterisations may be especially relevant, i.e., shape preferences, when the true posterior is not in the same family of distributions as the assumed (simpler) approximate density, which may be the case in many real-world scenarios. The ensuing departure from vanilla variational inference provides a potentially useful explanation for differences in behavioural preferences of biological (or artificial) agents under the assumption that the brain performs variational Bayesian inference.

Fully Bayesian approaches to sequential decision-making assume that problem parameters are generated from a known prior, while in practice, such information is often lacking, and needs to be estimated through learning. This problem is exacerbated in decision-making setups with partial information, where using a misspecified prior may lead to poor exploration and inferior performance. In this work we prove, in the context of stochastic linear bandits and Gaussian priors, that as long as the prior estimate is sufficiently close to the true prior, the performance of an algorithm that uses the misspecified prior is close to that of the algorithm that uses the true prior. Next, we address the task of learning the prior through metalearning, where a learner updates its estimate of the prior across multiple task instances in order to improve performance on future tasks. The estimated prior is then updated within each task based on incoming observations, while actions are selected in order to maximize expected reward. In this work we apply this scheme within a linear bandit setting, and provide algorithms and regret bounds, demonstrating its effectiveness, as compared to an algorithm that knows the correct prior. Our results hold for a broad class of algorithms, including, for example, Thompson Sampling and Information Directed Sampling.

Energy-based models (EBMs) are explicit generative models which work by considering Gibbs measures defined through an energy function f, with a probability density proportional to exp( βf(x)), where β is the inverse temperature. Such models originate in statistical physics [Gibbs, 2010, Ruelle, 1969], and have become a fundamental modeling tool in statistics and machine learning [Wainwright and Jordan, 2008, Ranzato et al., 2007, LeCun et al., 2006, Du and Mordatch, 2019, Song and Kingma, 2021]. Given data samples from a target distribution, the learning algorithms for EBMs attempt to estimate an energy function f to model the samples density. The resulting learned model can then be used to obtain new samples, typically through Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. The standard method to train EBMs is maximum likelihood estimation, i.e. the learned energy is the one maximizing the likelihood of the target samples, within a certain function class. One generic approach for this is to use gradient descent, where gradients may be approximated using MCMC samples from the trained model. However, this is computationally difficult for highly non-convex trained energies, which in recent years has motivated a myriad of alternative losses to learn EBM energies, such as the popular score matching; see [Song and Kingma, 2021] for a review. EBMs also have structural connections with maximum entropy (maxent) models, which have been studied for decades through Fenchel duality. Dai et al. [2019b] was the first work to leverage similar duality arguments

This paper is a review of a particular approach to the method of maximum entropy as a general framework for inference. The discussion emphasizes the pragmatic elements in the derivation. An epistemic notion of information is defined in terms of its relation to the Bayesian beliefs of ideally rational agents. The method of updating from a prior to a posterior probability distribution is designed through an eliminative induction process. The logarithmic relative entropy is singled out as the unique tool for updating that (a) is of universal applicability; (b) that recognizes the value of prior information; and (c) that recognizes the privileged role played by the notion of independence in science. The resulting framework -- the ME method -- can handle arbitrary priors and arbitrary constraints. It includes MaxEnt and Bayes' rule as special cases and, therefore, it unifies entropic and Bayesian methods into a single general inference scheme. The ME method goes beyond the mere selection of a single posterior, but also addresses the question of how much less probable other distributions might be, which provides a direct bridge to the theories of fluctuations and large deviations.

Subspace-valued functions arise in a wide range of problems, including parametric reduced order modeling (PROM). In PROM, each parameter point can be associated with a subspace, which is used for Petrov-Galerkin projections of large system matrices. Previous efforts to approximate such functions use interpolations on manifolds, which can be inaccurate and slow. To tackle this, we propose a novel Bayesian nonparametric model for subspace prediction: the Gaussian Process Subspace regression (GPS) model. This method is extrinsic and intrinsic at the same time: with multivariate Gaussian distributions on the Euclidean space, it induces a joint probability model on the Grassmann manifold, the set of fixed-dimensional subspaces. The GPS adopts a simple yet general correlation structure, and a principled approach for model selection. Its predictive distribution admits an analytical form, which allows for efficient subspace prediction over the parameter space. For PROM, the GPS provides a probabilistic prediction at a new parameter point that retains the accuracy of local reduced models, at a computational complexity that does not depend on system dimension, and thus is suitable for online computation. We give four numerical examples to compare our method to subspace interpolation, as well as two methods that interpolate local reduced models. Overall, GPS is the most data efficient, more computationally efficient than subspace interpolation, and gives smooth predictions with uncertainty quantification.

We show that many machine-learning algorithms are specific instances of a single algorithm called the Bayesian learning rule. The rule, derived from Bayesian principles, yields a wide-range of algorithms from fields such as optimization, deep learning, and graphical models. This includes classical algorithms such as ridge regression, Newton's method, and Kalman filter, as well as modern deep-learning algorithms such as stochastic-gradient descent, RMSprop, and Dropout. The key idea in deriving such algorithms is to approximate the posterior using candidate distributions estimated by using natural gradients. Different candidate distributions result in different algorithms and further approximations to natural gradients give rise to variants of those algorithms. Our work not only unifies, generalizes, and improves existing algorithms, but also helps us design new ones.

The increasing integration of intermittent renewable generation, especially at the distribution level,necessitates advanced planning and optimisation methodologies contingent on the knowledge of thegrid, specifically the admittance matrix capturing the topology and line parameters of an electricnetwork. However, a reliable estimate of the admittance matrix may either be missing or quicklybecome obsolete for temporally varying grids. In this work, we propose a data-driven identificationmethod utilising voltage and current measurements collected from micro-PMUs. More precisely,we first present a maximum likelihood approach and then move towards a Bayesian framework,leveraging the principles of maximum a posteriori estimation. In contrast with most existing con-tributions, our approach not only factors in measurement noise on both voltage and current data,but is also capable of exploiting available a priori information such as sparsity patterns and knownline parameters. Simulations conducted on benchmark cases demonstrate that, compared to otheralgorithms, our method can achieve significantly greater accuracy.

This work was developed aiming to employ Statistical techniques to the field of Music Emotion Recognition, a well-recognized area within the Signal Processing world, but hardly explored from the statistical point of view. Here, we opened several possibilities within the field, applying modern Bayesian Statistics techniques and developing efficient algorithms, focusing on the applicability of the results obtained. Although the motivation for this project was the development of a emotion-based music recommendation system, its main contribution is a highly adaptable multivariate model that can be useful interpreting any database where there is an interest in applying regularization in an efficient manner. Broadly speaking, we will explore what role a sound theoretical statistical analysis can play in the modeling of an algorithm that is able to understand a well-known database and what can be gained with this kind of approach.

Learning disentangled and interpretable representations is an important step towards accomplishing comprehensive data representations on the manifold. In this paper, we propose a novel representation learning algorithm which combines the inference abilities of Variational Autoencoders (VAE) with the generalization capability of Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN). The proposed model, called InfoVAEGAN, consists of three networks~: Encoder, Generator and Discriminator. InfoVAEGAN aims to jointly learn discrete and continuous interpretable representations in an unsupervised manner by using two different data-free log-likelihood functions onto the variables sampled from the generator's distribution. We propose a two-stage algorithm for optimizing the inference network separately from the generator training. Moreover, we enforce the learning of interpretable representations through the maximization of the mutual information between the existing latent variables and those created through generative and inference processes.

Agent Based Modelling (ABM) is a computational framework for simulating the behaviours and interactions of autonomous agents. As Agent Based Models are usually representative of complex systems, obtaining a likelihood function of the model parameters is nearly always intractable. There is a necessity to conduct inference in a likelihood free context in order to understand the model output. Approximate Bayesian Computation is a suitable approach for this inference. It can be applied to an Agent Based Model to both validate the simulation and infer a set of parameters to describe the model. Recent research in ABC has yielded increasingly efficient algorithms for calculating the approximate likelihood. These are investigated and compared using a pedestrian model in the Hamilton CBD.