Owing to the benefits for customers (lower prices), drivers (higher revenues), aggregation companies (higher revenues) and the environment (fewer vehicles), on-demand ride pooling (e.g., Uber pool, Grab Share) has become quite popular. The significant computational complexity of matching vehicles to combinations of requests has meant that traditional ride pooling approaches are myopic in that they do not consider the impact of current matches on future value for vehicles/drivers. Recently, Neural Approximate Dynamic Programming (NeurADP) has employed value decomposition with Approximate Dynamic Programming (ADP) to outperform leading approaches by considering the impact of an individual agent's (vehicle) chosen actions on the future value of that agent. However, in order to ensure scalability and facilitate city-scale ride pooling, NeurADP completely ignores the impact of other agents actions on individual agent/vehicle value. As demonstrated in our experimental results, ignoring the impact of other agents actions on individual value can have a significant impact on the overall performance when there is increased competition among vehicles for demand. Our key contribution is a novel mechanism based on computing conditional expectations through joint conditional probabilities for capturing dependencies on other agents actions without increasing the complexity of training or decision making. We show that our new approach, Conditional Expectation based Value Decomposition (CEVD) outperforms NeurADP by up to 9.76% in terms of overall requests served, which is a significant improvement on a city wide benchmark taxi dataset.

Power curves capture the relationship between wind speed and output power for a specific wind turbine. Accurate regression models of this function prove useful in monitoring, maintenance, design, and planning. In practice, however, the measurements do not always correspond to the ideal curve: power curtailments will appear as (additional) functional components. Such multivalued relationships cannot be modelled by conventional regression, and the associated data are usually removed during pre-processing. The current work suggests an alternative method to infer multivalued relationships in curtailed power data. Using a population-based approach, an overlapping mixture of probabilistic regression models is applied to signals recorded from turbines within an operational wind farm. The model is shown to provide an accurate representation of practical power data across the population.

We propose a new approach to explain Bayesian Networks. The approach revolves around a new definition of a probabilistic argument and the evidence it provides. We define a notion of independent arguments, and propose an algorithm to extract a list of relevant, independent arguments given a Bayesian Network, a target node and a set of observations. To demonstrate the relevance of the arguments, we show how we can use the extracted arguments to approximate message passing. Finally, we show a simple scheme to explain the arguments in natural language.

The Bayesian brain hypothesis postulates that the brain accurately operates on statistical distributions according to Bayes' theorem. The random failure of presynaptic vesicles to release neurotransmitters may allow the brain to sample from posterior distributions of network parameters, interpreted as epistemic uncertainty. It has not been shown previously how random failures might allow networks to sample from observed distributions, also known as aleatoric or residual uncertainty. Sampling from both distributions enables probabilistic inference, efficient search, and creative or generative problem solving. We demonstrate that under a population-code based interpretation of neural activity, both types of distribution can be represented and sampled with synaptic failure alone. We first define a biologically constrained neural network and sampling scheme based on synaptic failure and lateral inhibition. Within this framework, we derive dropout based epistemic uncertainty, then prove an analytic mapping from synaptic efficacy to release probability that allows networks to sample from arbitrary, learned distributions represented by a receiving layer. Second, our result leads to a local learning rule by which synapses adapt their release probabilities. Our result demonstrates complete Bayesian inference, related to the variational learning method of dropout, in a biologically constrained network using only locally-learned synaptic failure rates. Introduction The Bayesian Brain hypothesis has led to a number of important insights about neural coding in the brain (Knill and Pouget, 2004; Friston, 2010, 2012; Pouget et al., 2013; Lee and Mumford, 2003) by characterizing neural representation and processing in terms of formal probabilistic inference and sampling. Furthermore, the introduction of related probabilistic representations and sampling processes in modern deep learning variational models has led to improved performance on a range of different tasks (Zhang et al., 2019; Blei et al., 2017; Kingma and Welling, 2014; Detorakis et al., 2019). The widely-used dropout technique in deep learning can be seen as a form of variational inference and sampling (Srivastava et al., 2014; Gal and Ghahramani, 2016) with direct analogy to the random failure of synapses in the brain. This link has led to biologically-motivated models of variational deep learning that use network weight dropout to simulate synaptic failure (Mostafa and Cauwenberghs, 2018; Wan et al., 2013; Neftci et al., 2016). In this paper, we build on these and other recent findings in machine learning and neurobiology to show how the brain can accurately represent the two primary components of probabilistic inference, distributions of observed data and distributions of unobserved values (such as model parameters), with the single, biologically established mechanism of synaptic failure.

In recent years, large-scale Bayesian learning draws a great deal of attention. However, in big-data era, the amount of data we face is growing much faster than our ability to deal with it. Fortunately, it is observed that large-scale datasets usually own rich internal structure and is somewhat redundant. In this paper, we attempt to simplify the Bayesian posterior via exploiting this structure. Specifically, we restrict our interest to the so-called well-clustered datasets and construct an \emph{approximate posterior} according to the clustering information. Fortunately, the clustering structure can be efficiently obtained via a particular clustering algorithm. When constructing the approximate posterior, the data points in the same cluster are all replaced by the centroid of the cluster. As a result, the posterior can be significantly simplified. Theoretically, we show that under certain conditions the approximate posterior we construct is close (measured by KL divergence) to the exact posterior. Furthermore, thorough experiments are conducted to validate the fact that the constructed posterior is a good approximation to the true posterior and much easier to sample from.

Hierarchical models with gamma hyperpriors provide a flexible, sparse-promoting framework to bridge $L^1$ and $L^2$ regularizations in Bayesian formulations to inverse problems. Despite the Bayesian motivation for these models, existing methodologies are limited to \textit{maximum a posteriori} estimation. The potential to perform uncertainty quantification has not yet been realized. This paper introduces a variational iterative alternating scheme for hierarchical inverse problems with gamma hyperpriors. The proposed variational inference approach yields accurate reconstruction, provides meaningful uncertainty quantification, and is easy to implement. In addition, it lends itself naturally to conduct model selection for the choice of hyperparameters. We illustrate the performance of our methodology in several computed examples, including a deconvolution problem and sparse identification of dynamical systems from time series data.

Inspired by the foundational works by Spivak and Fong and Cruttwell et al., we introduce a categorical framework to formalize Bayesian inference and learning. The two key ideas at play here are the notions of Bayesian inversions and the functor GL as constructed by Cruttwell et al.. In this context, we find that Bayesian learning is the simplest case of the learning paradigm. We then obtain categorical formulations of batch and sequential Bayes updates while also verifying that the two coincide in a specific example.

All three of us are authors of the PyMC Probabilistic Programming Language, a production grade package used at leading organizations around the world. Ravin learned the power of Bayes Theorem at SpaceX when improving the supply chains of the world's most advanced rockets. He's now an advocate of applied Bayesian methods and has since authored a textbook about Bayes Theorem and writes about appllied data science on his blog. Thomas is enthusiastic about teaching statistics using code and examples, rather than arduous math. Through his many talks and blog posts, he has shown that there is a different way to teach statistics.

Score-based diffusion models have emerged as one of the most promising frameworks for deep generative modelling. In this work we conduct a systematic comparison and theoretical analysis of different approaches to learning conditional probability distributions with score-based diffusion models. In particular, we prove results which provide a theoretical justification for one of the most successful estimators of the conditional score. Moreover, we introduce a multi-speed diffusion framework, which leads to a new estimator for the conditional score, performing on par with previous state-of-the-art approaches. Our theoretical and experimental findings are accompanied by an open source library MSDiff which allows for application and further research of multi-speed diffusion models.

The world is structured in countless ways. It may be prudent to enforce corresponding structural properties to a learning algorithm's solution, such as incorporating prior beliefs, natural constraints, or causal structures. Doing so may translate to faster, more accurate, and more flexible models, which may directly relate to real-world impact. In this dissertation, we consider two different research areas that concern structuring a learning algorithm's solution: when the structure is known and when it has to be discovered.