Bayesian additive regression tree (BART) models have seen increased attention in recent years as a general-purpose nonparametric modeling technique. BART combines the flexibility of modern machine learning techniques with the principled uncertainty quantification of Bayesian inference, and it has been shown to be uniquely appropriate for addressing the high-noise problems that occur commonly in many areas of science, including medicine and the social sciences. This paper introduces the SoftBart package for fitting the Soft BART algorithm of Linero and Yang (2018). In addition to improving upon the predictive performance of other BART packages, a major goal of this package has been to facilitate the inclusion of BART in larger models, making it ideal for researchers in Bayesian statistics. I show both how to use this package for standard prediction tasks and how to embed BART models in larger models; I illustrate by using SoftBart to implement a nonparametric probit regression model, a semiparametric varying coefficient model, and a partial linear model.

This paper addresses the problem of fault diagnosis in multistation assembly systems. Fault diagnosis is to identify process faults that cause the excessive dimensional variation of the product using dimensional measurements. For such problems, the challenge is solving an underdetermined system caused by a common phenomenon in practice; namely, the number of measurements is less than that of the process errors. To address this challenge, this paper attempts to solve the following two problems: (1) how to utilize the temporal correlation in the time series data of each process error and (2) how to apply prior knowledge regarding which process errors are more likely to be process faults. A novel sparse Bayesian learning method is proposed to achieve the above objectives. The method consists of three hierarchical layers. The first layer has parameterized prior distribution that exploits the temporal correlation of each process error. Furthermore, the second and third layers achieve the prior distribution representing the prior knowledge of process faults. Then, these prior distributions are updated with the likelihood function of the measurement samples from the process, resulting in the accurate posterior distribution of process faults from an underdetermined system. Since posterior distributions of process faults are intractable, this paper derives approximate posterior distributions via Variational Bayes inference. Numerical and simulation case studies using an actual autobody assembly process are performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Cardiovascular activities are directly related to the response of a body in a stressed condition. Stress, based on its intensity, can be divided into two types i.e. Acute stress (short-term stress) and Chronic stress (long-term stress). Repeated acute stress and continuous chronic stress may play a vital role in inflammation in the circulatory system and thus leads to a heart attack or to a stroke. In this study, we have reviewed commonly used machine learning classification techniques applied to different stress-indicating parameters used in stress monitoring devices. These parameters include Photoplethysmograph (PPG), Electrocardiographs (ECG), Electromyograph (EMG), Galvanic Skin Response (GSR), Heart Rate Variation (HRV), skin temperature, respiratory rate, Electroencephalograph (EEG) and salivary cortisol, used in stress monitoring devices. This study also provides a discussion on choosing a classifier, which depends upon a number of factors other than accuracy, like the number of subjects involved in an experiment, type of signals processing and computational limitations.

Self-supervised representation learning (SSL) methods provide an effective label-free initial condition for fine-tuning downstream tasks. However, in numerous realistic scenarios, the downstream task might be biased with respect to the target label distribution. This in turn moves the learned fine-tuned model posterior away from the initial (label) bias-free self-supervised model posterior. In this work, we re-interpret SSL fine-tuning under the lens of Bayesian continual learning and consider regularization through the Elastic Weight Consolidation (EWC) framework. We demonstrate that self-regularization against an initial SSL backbone improves worst sub-group performance in Waterbirds by 5% and Celeb-A by 2% when using the ViT-B/16 architecture. Furthermore, to help simplify the use of EWC with SSL, we pre-compute and publicly release the Fisher Information Matrix (FIM), evaluated with 10,000 ImageNet-1K variates evaluated on large modern SSL architectures including ViT-B/16 and ResNet50 trained with DINO.

In practical applications, data is used to make decisions in two steps: estimation and optimization. First, a machine learning model estimates parameters for a structural model relating decisions to outcomes. Second, a decision is chosen to optimize the structural model's predicted outcome as if its parameters were correctly estimated. Due to its flexibility and simple implementation, this ``estimate-then-optimize'' approach is often used for data-driven decision-making. Errors in the estimation step can lead estimate-then-optimize to sub-optimal decisions that result in regret, i.e., a difference in value between the decision made and the best decision available with knowledge of the structural model's parameters. We provide a novel bound on this regret for smooth and unconstrained optimization problems. Using this bound, in settings where estimated parameters are linear transformations of sub-Gaussian random vectors, we provide a general procedure for experimental design to minimize the regret resulting from estimate-then-optimize. We demonstrate our approach on simple examples and a pandemic control application.

Many network analysis and graph learning techniques are based on models of random walks which require to infer transition matrices that formalize the underlying stochastic process in an observed graph. For weighted graphs, it is common to estimate the entries of such transition matrices based on the relative weights of edges. However, we are often confronted with incomplete data, which turns the construction of the transition matrix based on a weighted graph into an inference problem. Moreover, we often have access to additional information, which capture topological constraints of the system, i.e. which edges in a weighted graph are (theoretically) possible and which are not, e.g. transportation networks, where we have access to passenger trajectories as well as the physical topology of connections, or a set of social interactions with the underlying social structure. Combining these two different sources of information to infer transition matrices is an open challenge, with implications on the downstream network analysis tasks. Addressing this issue, we show that including knowledge on such topological constraints can improve the inference of transition matrices, especially for small datasets. We derive an analytically tractable Bayesian method that uses repeated interactions and a topological prior to infer transition matrices data-efficiently. We compare it against commonly used frequentist and Bayesian approaches both in synthetic and real-world datasets, and we find that it recovers the transition probabilities with higher accuracy and that it is robust even in cases when the knowledge of the topological constraint is partial. Lastly, we show that this higher accuracy improves the results for downstream network analysis tasks like cluster detection and node ranking, which highlights the practical relevance of our method for analyses of various networked systems.

Recently continuous relaxations have been proposed in order to learn Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) from data by backpropagation, instead of using combinatorial optimization. However, a number of techniques for fully discrete backpropagation could instead be applied. In this paper, we explore that direction and propose DAG-DB, a framework for learning DAGs by Discrete Backpropagation. Based on the architecture of Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation [I-MLE, arXiv:2106.01798], DAG-DB adopts a probabilistic approach to the problem, sampling binary adjacency matrices from an implicit probability distribution. DAG-DB learns a parameter for the distribution from the loss incurred by each sample, performing competitively using either of two fully discrete backpropagation techniques, namely I-MLE and Straight-Through Estimation.

Finding unified complexity measures and algorithms for sample-efficient learning is a central topic of research in reinforcement learning (RL). The Decision-Estimation Coefficient (DEC) is recently proposed by Foster et al. (2021) as a necessary and sufficient complexity measure for sample-efficient no-regret RL. This paper makes progress towards a unified theory for RL with the DEC framework. First, we propose two new DEC-type complexity measures: Explorative DEC (EDEC), and Reward-Free DEC (RFDEC). We show that they are necessary and sufficient for sample-efficient PAC learning and reward-free learning, thereby extending the original DEC which only captures no-regret learning. Next, we design new unified sample-efficient algorithms for all three learning goals. Our algorithms instantiate variants of the Estimation-To-Decisions (E2D) meta-algorithm with a strong and general model estimation subroutine. Even in the no-regret setting, our algorithm E2D-TA improves upon the algorithms of Foster et al. (2021) which require either bounding a variant of the DEC which may be prohibitively large, or designing problem-specific estimation subroutines. As applications, we recover existing and obtain new sample-efficient learning results for a wide range of tractable RL problems using essentially a single algorithm. We also generalize the DEC to give sample-efficient algorithms for all-policy model estimation, with applications for learning equilibria in Markov Games. Finally, as a connection, we re-analyze two existing optimistic model-based algorithms based on Posterior Sampling or Maximum Likelihood Estimation, showing that they enjoy similar regret bounds as E2D-TA under similar structural conditions as the DEC.

Machine Learning (ML) research has focused on maximizing the accuracy of predictive tasks. ML models, however, are increasingly more complex, resource intensive, and costlier to deploy in resource-constrained environments. These issues are exacerbated for prediction tasks with sequential classification on progressively transitioned stages with ''happens-before'' relation between them.We argue that it is possible to ''unfold'' a monolithic single multi-class classifier, typically trained for all stages using all data, into a series of single-stage classifiers. Each single-stage classifier can be cascaded gradually from cheaper to more expensive binary classifiers that are trained using only the necessary data modalities or features required for that stage. UnfoldML is a cost-aware and uncertainty-based dynamic 2D prediction pipeline for multi-stage classification that enables (1) navigation of the accuracy/cost tradeoff space, (2) reducing the spatio-temporal cost of inference by orders of magnitude, and (3) early prediction on proceeding stages. UnfoldML achieves orders of magnitude better cost in clinical settings, while detecting multi-stage disease development in real time. It achieves within 0.1% accuracy from the highest-performing multi-class baseline, while saving close to 20X on spatio-temporal cost of inference and earlier (3.5hrs) disease onset prediction. We also show that UnfoldML generalizes to image classification, where it can predict different level of labels (from coarse to fine) given different level of abstractions of a image, saving close to 5X cost with as little as 0.4% accuracy reduction.

Recent progress in self-supervised or unsupervised machine learning has opened the possibility of building a full speech processing system from raw audio without using any textual representations or expert labels such as phonemes, dictionaries or parse trees. The contribution of the Zero Resource Speech Challenge series since 2015 has been to break down this long-term objective into four well-defined tasks -- Acoustic Unit Discovery, Spoken Term Discovery, Discrete Resynthesis, and Spoken Language Modeling -- and introduce associated metrics and benchmarks enabling model comparison and cumulative progress. We present an overview of the six editions of this challenge series since 2015, discuss the lessons learned, and outline the areas which need more work or give puzzling results.