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 Bayesian Inference


Don't Waste a Single Annotation: Improving Single-Label Classifiers Through Soft Labels

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we address the limitations of the common data annotation and training methods for objective single-label classification tasks. Typically, when annotating such tasks annotators are only asked to provide a single label for each sample and annotator disagreement is discarded when a final hard label is decided through majority voting. We challenge this traditional approach, acknowledging that determining the appropriate label can be difficult due to the ambiguity and lack of context in the data samples. Rather than discarding the information from such ambiguous annotations, our soft label method makes use of them for training. Our findings indicate that additional annotator information, such as confidence, secondary label and disagreement, can be used to effectively generate soft labels. Training classifiers with these soft labels then leads to improved performance and calibration on the hard label test set.


Perfecting Liquid-State Theories with Machine Intelligence

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent years have seen a significant increase in the use of machine intelligence for predicting electronic structure, molecular force fields, and the physicochemical properties of various condensed systems. However, substantial challenges remain in developing a comprehensive framework capable of handling a wide range of atomic compositions and thermodynamic conditions. This perspective discusses potential future developments in liquid-state theories leveraging on recent advancements of functional machine learning. By harnessing the strengths of theoretical analysis and machine learning techniques including surrogate models, dimension reduction and uncertainty quantification, we envision that liquid-state theories will gain significant improvements in accuracy, scalability and computational efficiency, enabling their broader applications across diverse materials and chemical systems.


Principled Pruning of Bayesian Neural Networks through Variational Free Energy Minimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Bayesian model reduction provides an efficient approach for comparing the performance of all nested sub-models of a model, without re-evaluating any of these sub-models. Until now, Bayesian model reduction has been applied mainly in the computational neuroscience community on simple models. In this paper, we formulate and apply Bayesian model reduction to perform principled pruning of Bayesian neural networks, based on variational free energy minimization. Direct application of Bayesian model reduction, however, gives rise to approximation errors. Therefore, a novel iterative pruning algorithm is presented to alleviate the problems arising with naive Bayesian model reduction, as supported experimentally on the publicly available UCI datasets for different inference algorithms. This novel parameter pruning scheme solves the shortcomings of current state-of-the-art pruning methods that are used by the signal processing community. The proposed approach has a clear stopping criterion and minimizes the same objective that is used during training. Next to these benefits, our experiments indicate better model performance in comparison to state-of-the-art pruning schemes.


When Meta-Learning Meets Online and Continual Learning: A Survey

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Over the past decade, deep neural networks have demonstrated significant success using the training scheme that involves mini-batch stochastic gradient descent on extensive datasets. Expanding upon this accomplishment, there has been a surge in research exploring the application of neural networks in other learning scenarios. One notable framework that has garnered significant attention is meta-learning. Often described as "learning to learn," meta-learning is a data-driven approach to optimize the learning algorithm. Other branches of interest are continual learning and online learning, both of which involve incrementally updating a model with streaming data. While these frameworks were initially developed independently, recent works have started investigating their combinations, proposing novel problem settings and learning algorithms. However, due to the elevated complexity and lack of unified terminology, discerning differences between the learning frameworks can be challenging even for experienced researchers. To facilitate a clear understanding, this paper provides a comprehensive survey that organizes various problem settings using consistent terminology and formal descriptions. By offering an overview of these learning paradigms, our work aims to foster further advancements in this promising area of research.


Implicit Variational Inference for High-Dimensional Posteriors

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In variational inference, the benefits of Bayesian models rely on accurately capturing the true posterior distribution. We propose using neural samplers that specify implicit distributions, which are well-suited for approximating complex multimodal and correlated posteriors in high-dimensional spaces. Our approach introduces novel bounds for approximate inference using implicit distributions by locally linearising the neural sampler. This is distinct from existing methods that rely on additional discriminator networks and unstable adversarial objectives. Furthermore, we present a new sampler architecture that, for the first time, enables implicit distributions over tens of millions of latent variables, addressing computational concerns by using differentiable numerical approximations. We empirically show that our method is capable of recovering correlations across layers in large Bayesian neural networks, a property that is crucial for a network's performance but notoriously challenging to achieve. To the best of our knowledge, no other method has been shown to accomplish this task for such large models. Through experiments in downstream tasks, we demonstrate that our expressive posteriors outperform state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification methods, validating the effectiveness of our training algorithm and the quality of the learned implicit approximation.


A theory of data variability in Neural Network Bayesian inference

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Bayesian inference and kernel methods are well established in machine learning. The neural network Gaussian process in particular provides a concept to investigate neural networks in the limit of infinitely wide hidden layers by using kernel and inference methods. Here we build upon this limit and provide a field-theoretic formalism which covers the generalization properties of infinitely wide networks. We systematically compute generalization properties of linear, non-linear, and deep non-linear networks for kernel matrices with heterogeneous entries. In contrast to currently employed spectral methods we derive the generalization properties from the statistical properties of the input, elucidating the interplay of input dimensionality, size of the training data set, and variability of the data. We show that data variability leads to a non-Gaussian action reminiscent of a ($\varphi^3+\varphi^4$)-theory. Using our formalism on a synthetic task and on MNIST we obtain a homogeneous kernel matrix approximation for the learning curve as well as corrections due to data variability which allow the estimation of the generalization properties and exact results for the bounds of the learning curves in the case of infinitely many training data points.


Orthogonal Polynomials Approximation Algorithm (OPAA):a functional analytic approach to estimating probability densities

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We present the new Orthogonal Polynomials Approximation Algorithm (OPAA), a parallelizable algorithm that solves two problems from a functional analytic approach: first, it finds a smooth functional estimate of a density function, whether it is normalized or not; second, the algorithm provides an estimate of the normalizing weight. In the context of Bayesian inference, OPAA provides an estimate of the posterior function as well as the normalizing weight, which is also known as the evidence. A core component of OPAA is a special transform of the square root of the joint distribution into a special functional space of our construct. Through this transform, the evidence is equated with the $L^2$ norm of the transformed function, squared. Hence, the evidence can be estimated by the sum of squares of the transform coefficients. The computations can be parallelized and completed in one pass. To compute the transform coefficients, OPAA proposes a new computational scheme leveraging Gauss--Hermite quadrature in higher dimensions. Not only does it avoid the potential high variance problem associated with random sampling methods, it also enables one to speed up the computation by parallelization, and significantly reduces the complexity by a vector decomposition.


Bayesian sequential design of computer experiments for quantile set inversion

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We consider an unknown multivariate function representing a system-such as a complex numerical simulator-taking both deterministic and uncertain inputs. Our objective is to estimate the set of deterministic inputs leading to outputs whose probability (with respect to the distribution of the uncertain inputs) of belonging to a given set is less than a given threshold. This problem, which we call Quantile Set Inversion (QSI), occurs for instance in the context of robust (reliability-based) optimization problems, when looking for the set of solutions that satisfy the constraints with sufficiently large probability. To solve the QSI problem, we propose a Bayesian strategy based on Gaussian process modeling and the Stepwise Uncertainty Reduction (SUR) principle, to sequentially choose the points at which the function should be evaluated to efficiently approximate the set of interest. We illustrate the performance and interest of the proposed SUR strategy through several numerical experiments.


Functional Bayesian Tucker Decomposition for Continuous-indexed Tensor Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Tucker decomposition is a powerful tensor model to handle multi-aspect data. It demonstrates the low-rank property by decomposing the grid-structured data as interactions between a core tensor and a set of object representations (factors). A fundamental assumption of such decomposition is that there were finite objects in each aspect or mode, corresponding to discrete indexes of data entries. However, many real-world data are not naturally posed in the setting. For example, geographic data is represented as continuous indexes of latitude and longitude coordinates, and cannot fit tensor models directly. To generalize Tucker decomposition to such scenarios, we propose Functional Bayesian Tucker Decomposition (FunBaT). We treat the continuous-indexed data as the interaction between the Tucker core and a group of latent functions. We use Gaussian processes (GP) as functional priors to model the latent functions, and then convert the GPs into a state-space prior by constructing an equivalent stochastic differential equation (SDE) to reduce computational cost. An efficient inference algorithm is further developed for scalable posterior approximation based on advanced message-passing techniques. The advantage of our method is shown in both synthetic data and several real-world applications.


More PAC-Bayes bounds: From bounded losses, to losses with general tail behaviors, to anytime-validity

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, we present new high-probability PAC-Bayes bounds for different types of losses. Firstly, for losses with a bounded range, we recover a strengthened version of Catoni's bound that holds uniformly for all parameter values. This leads to new fast rate and mixed rate bounds that are interpretable and tighter than previous bounds in the literature. In particular, the fast rate bound is equivalent to the Seeger--Langford bound. Secondly, for losses with more general tail behaviors, we introduce two new parameter-free bounds: a PAC-Bayes Chernoff analogue when the loss' cumulative generating function is bounded, and a bound when the loss' second moment is bounded. These two bounds are obtained using a new technique based on a discretization of the space of possible events for the "in probability" parameter optimization problem. This technique is both simpler and more general than previous approaches optimizing over a grid on the parameters' space. Finally, we extend all previous results to anytime-valid bounds using a simple technique applicable to any existing bound.