Significance testing aims to determine whether a proposition about the population distribution is the truth or not given observations. However, traditional significance testing often needs to derive the distribution of the testing statistic, failing to deal with complex nonlinear relationships. In this paper, we propose to conduct Full Bayesian Significance Testing for neural networks, called \textit{n}FBST, to overcome the limitation in relationship characterization of traditional approaches. A Bayesian neural network is utilized to fit the nonlinear and multi-dimensional relationships with small errors and avoid hard theoretical derivation by computing the evidence value. Besides, \textit{n}FBST can test not only global significance but also local and instance-wise significance, which previous testing methods don't focus on. Moreover, \textit{n}FBST is a general framework that can be extended based on the measures selected, such as Grad-\textit{n}FBST, LRP-\textit{n}FBST, DeepLIFT-\textit{n}FBST, LIME-\textit{n}FBST. A range of experiments on both simulated and real data are conducted to show the advantages of our method.

We investigate the application of the factor graph framework for blind joint channel estimation and symbol detection on time-variant linear inter-symbol interference channels. In particular, we consider the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation, which typically suffers from high complexity as it requires the computation of the symbol-wise posterior distributions in every iteration. We address this issue by efficiently approximating the posteriors using the belief propagation (BP) algorithm on a suitable factor graph. By interweaving the iterations of BP and EM, the detection complexity can be further reduced to a single BP iteration per EM step. In addition, we propose a data-driven version of our algorithm that introduces momentum in the BP updates and learns a suitable EM parameter update schedule, thereby significantly improving the performance-complexity tradeoff with a few offline training samples. Our numerical experiments demonstrate the excellent performance of the proposed blind detector and show that it even outperforms coherent BP detection in high signal-to-noise scenarios.

Is there a canonical way to think of agency beyond reward maximisation? In this paper, we show that any type of behaviour complying with physically sound assumptions about how macroscopic biological agents interact with the world canonically integrates exploration and exploitation in the sense of minimising risk and ambiguity about states of the world. This description, known as active inference, refines the free energy principle, a popular descriptive framework for action and perception originating in neuroscience. Active inference provides a normative Bayesian framework to simulate and model agency that is widely used in behavioural neuroscience, reinforcement learning (RL) and robotics. The usefulness of active inference for RL is three-fold. \emph{a}) Active inference provides a principled solution to the exploration-exploitation dilemma that usefully simulates biological agency. \emph{b}) It provides an explainable recipe to simulate behaviour, whence behaviour follows as an explainable mixture of exploration and exploitation under a generative world model, and all differences in behaviour are explicit in differences in world model. \emph{c}) This framework is universal in the sense that it is theoretically possible to rewrite any RL algorithm conforming to the descriptive assumptions of active inference as an active inference algorithm. Thus, active inference can be used as a tool to uncover and compare the commitments and assumptions of more specific models of agency.

Interacting systems are ubiquitous in nature and engineering, ranging from particle dynamics in physics to functionally connected brain regions. These interacting systems can be modeled by graphs where edges correspond to the interactions between interactive entities. Revealing interaction laws is of fundamental importance but also particularly challenging due to underlying configurational complexities. The associated challenges become exacerbated for heterogeneous systems that are prevalent in reality, where multiple interaction types coexist simultaneously and relational inference is required. Here, we propose a novel probabilistic method for relational inference, which possesses two distinctive characteristics compared to existing methods. First, it infers the interaction types of different edges collectively by explicitly encoding the correlation among incoming interactions with a joint distribution, and second, it allows handling systems with variable topological structure over time. We evaluate the proposed methodology across several benchmark datasets and demonstrate that it outperforms existing methods in accurately inferring interaction types. We further show that when combined with known constraints, it allows us, for example, to discover physics-consistent interaction laws of particle systems. Overall the proposed model is data-efficient and generalizable to large systems when trained on smaller ones. The developed methodology constitutes a key element for understanding interacting systems and may find application in graph structure learning.

Score-based generative models have demonstrated highly promising results for medical image reconstruction tasks in magnetic resonance imaging or computed tomography. However, their application to Positron Emission Tomography (PET) is still largely unexplored. PET image reconstruction involves a variety of challenges, including Poisson noise with high variance and a wide dynamic range. To address these challenges, we propose several PET-specific adaptations of score-based generative models. The proposed framework is developed for both 2D and 3D PET. In addition, we provide an extension to guided reconstruction using magnetic resonance images. We validate the approach through extensive 2D and 3D $\textit{in-silico}$ experiments with a model trained on patient-realistic data without lesions, and evaluate on data without lesions as well as out-of-distribution data with lesions. This demonstrates the proposed method's robustness and significant potential for improved PET reconstruction.

This paper presents a structure-preserving Bayesian approach for learning nonseparable Hamiltonian systems using stochastic dynamic models allowing for statistically-dependent, vector-valued additive and multiplicative measurement noise. The approach is comprised of three main facets. First, we derive a Gaussian filter for a statistically-dependent, vector-valued, additive and multiplicative noise model that is needed to evaluate the likelihood within the Bayesian posterior. Second, we develop a novel algorithm for cost-effective application of Bayesian system identification to high-dimensional systems. Third, we demonstrate how structure-preserving methods can be incorporated into the proposed framework, using nonseparable Hamiltonians as an illustrative system class. We compare the Bayesian method to a state-of-the-art machine learning method on a canonical nonseparable Hamiltonian model and a chaotic double pendulum model with small, noisy training datasets. The results show that using the Bayesian posterior as a training objective can yield upwards of 724 times improvement in Hamiltonian mean squared error using training data with up to 10% multiplicative noise compared to a standard training objective. Lastly, we demonstrate the utility of the novel algorithm for parameter estimation of a 64-dimensional model of the spatially-discretized nonlinear Schr\"odinger equation with data corrupted by up to 20% multiplicative noise.

Deep learning has revolutionized the last decade, being at the forefront of extraordinary advances in a wide range of tasks including computer vision, natural language processing, and reinforcement learning, to name but a few. However, it is well-known that deep models trained via maximum likelihood estimation tend to be overconfident and give poorly-calibrated predictions. Bayesian deep learning attempts to address this by placing priors on the model parameters, which are then combined with a likelihood to perform posterior inference. Unfortunately, for deep models, the true posterior is intractable, forcing the user to resort to approximations. In this thesis, we explore the use of variational inference (VI) as an approximation, as it is unique in simultaneously approximating the posterior and providing a lower bound to the marginal likelihood. If tight enough, this lower bound can be used to optimize hyperparameters and to facilitate model selection. However, this capacity has rarely been used to its full extent for Bayesian neural networks, likely because the approximate posteriors typically used in practice can lack the flexibility to effectively bound the marginal likelihood. We therefore explore three aspects of Bayesian learning for deep models: 1) we ask whether it is necessary to perform inference over as many parameters as possible, or whether it is reasonable to treat many of them as optimizable hyperparameters; 2) we propose a variational posterior that provides a unified view of inference in Bayesian neural networks and deep Gaussian processes; 3) we demonstrate how VI can be improved in certain deep Gaussian process models by analytically removing symmetries from the posterior, and performing inference on Gram matrices instead of features. We hope that our contributions will provide a stepping stone to fully realize the promises of VI in the future.

Bayesian Neural Networks (BayNNs) naturally provide uncertainty in their predictions, making them a suitable choice in safety-critical applications. Additionally, their realization using memristor-based in-memory computing (IMC) architectures enables them for resource-constrained edge applications. In addition to predictive uncertainty, however, the ability to be inherently robust to noise in computation is also essential to ensure functional safety. In particular, memristor-based IMCs are susceptible to various sources of non-idealities such as manufacturing and runtime variations, drift, and failure, which can significantly reduce inference accuracy. In this paper, we propose a method to inherently enhance the robustness and inference accuracy of BayNNs deployed in IMC architectures. To achieve this, we introduce a novel normalization layer combined with stochastic affine transformations. Empirical results in various benchmark datasets show a graceful degradation in inference accuracy, with an improvement of up to $58.11\%$.

We propose Expert Monitoring, an approach that leverages domain expertise to enhance the detection and mitigation of concept drift in machine learning (ML) models. Our approach supports practitioners by consolidating domain expertise related to concept drift-inducing events, making this expertise accessible to on-call personnel, and enabling automatic adaptability with expert oversight.

Robust evidence suggests that humans explore their environment using a combination of topological landmarks and coarse-grained path integration. This approach relies on identifiable environmental features (topological landmarks) in tandem with estimations of distance and direction (coarse-grained path integration) to construct cognitive maps of the surroundings. This cognitive map is believed to exhibit a hierarchical structure, allowing efficient planning when solving complex navigation tasks. Inspired by human behaviour, this paper presents a scalable hierarchical active inference model for autonomous navigation, exploration, and goal-oriented behaviour. The model uses visual observation and motion perception to combine curiosity-driven exploration with goal-oriented behaviour. Motion is planned using different levels of reasoning, i.e., from context to place to motion. This allows for efficient navigation in new spaces and rapid progress toward a target. By incorporating these human navigational strategies and their hierarchical representation of the environment, this model proposes a new solution for autonomous navigation and exploration. The approach is validated through simulations in a mini-grid environment.