We introduce a set of gradient-flow-guided adaptive importance sampling (IS) transformations to stabilize Monte-Carlo approximations of point-wise leave one out cross-validated (LOO) predictions for Bayesian classification models. One can leverage this methodology for assessing model generalizability by for instance computing a LOO analogue to the AIC or computing LOO ROC/PRC curves and derived metrics like the AUROC and AUPRC. By the calculus of variations and gradient flow, we derive two simple nonlinear single-step transformations that utilize gradient information to shift a model's pre-trained full-data posterior closer to the target LOO posterior predictive distributions. In doing so, the transformations stabilize importance weights. Because the transformations involve the gradient of the likelihood function, the resulting Monte Carlo integral depends on Jacobian determinants with respect to the model Hessian. We derive closed-form exact formulae for these Jacobian determinants in the cases of logistic regression and shallow ReLU-activated artificial neural networks, and provide a simple approximation that sidesteps the need to compute full Hessian matrices and their spectra. We test the methodology on an $n\ll p$ dataset that is known to produce unstable LOO IS weights.

To find New Physics or to refine our knowledge of the Standard Model at the LHC is an enterprise that involves many factors. We focus on taking advantage of available information and pour our effort in re-thinking the usual data-driven ABCD method to improve it and to generalize it using Bayesian Machine Learning tools. We propose that a dataset consisting of a signal and many backgrounds is well described through a mixture model. Signal, backgrounds and their relative fractions in the sample can be well extracted by exploiting the prior knowledge and the dependence between the different observables at the event-by-event level with Bayesian tools. We show how, in contrast to the ABCD method, one can take advantage of understanding some properties of the different backgrounds and of having more than two independent observables to measure in each event. In addition, instead of regions defined through hard cuts, the Bayesian framework uses the information of continuous distribution to obtain soft-assignments of the events which are statistically more robust. To compare both methods we use a toy problem inspired by $pp\to hh\to b\bar b b \bar b$, selecting a reduced and simplified number of processes and analysing the flavor of the four jets and the invariant mass of the jet-pairs, modeled with simplified distributions. Taking advantage of all this information, and starting from a combination of biased and agnostic priors, leads us to a very good posterior once we use the Bayesian framework to exploit the data and the mutual information of the observables at the event-by-event level. We show how, in this simplified model, the Bayesian framework outperforms the ABCD method sensitivity in obtaining the signal fraction in scenarios with $1\%$ and $0.5\%$ true signal fractions in the dataset. We also show that the method is robust against the absence of signal.

The prior drift is crucial in Continual Test-Time Adaptation (CTTA) methods that only use unlabeled test data, as it can cause significant error propagation. In this paper, we introduce VCoTTA, a variational Bayesian approach to measure uncertainties in CTTA. At the source stage, we transform a pre-trained deterministic model into a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) via a variational warm-up strategy, injecting uncertainties into the model. During the testing time, we employ a mean-teacher update strategy using variational inference for the student model and exponential moving average for the teacher model. Our novel approach updates the student model by combining priors from both the source and teacher models. The evidence lower bound is formulated as the cross-entropy between the student and teacher models, along with the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence of the prior mixture. Experimental results on three datasets demonstrate the method's effectiveness in mitigating prior drift within the CTTA framework.

How can individuals exchange information to learn from each other despite their privacy needs and security concerns? For example, consider individuals deliberating a contentious topic and being concerned about divulging their private experiences. Preserving individual privacy and enabling efficient social learning are both important desiderata but seem fundamentally at odds with each other and very hard to reconcile. We do so by controlling information leakage using rigorous statistical guarantees that are based on differential privacy (DP). Our agents use log-linear rules to update their beliefs after communicating with their neighbors. Adding DP randomization noise to beliefs provides communicating agents with plausible deniability with regard to their private information and their network neighborhoods. We consider two learning environments one for distributed maximum-likelihood estimation given a finite number of private signals and another for online learning from an infinite, intermittent signal stream. Noisy information aggregation in the finite case leads to interesting tradeoffs between rejecting low-quality states and making sure all high-quality states are accepted in the algorithm output. Our results flesh out the nature of the trade-offs in both cases between the quality of the group decision outcomes, learning accuracy, communication cost, and the level of privacy protections that the agents are afforded.

Graph Laplacian learning, also known as network topology inference, is a problem of great interest to multiple communities. In Gaussian graphical models (GM), graph learning amounts to endowing covariance selection with the Laplacian structure. In graph signal processing (GSP), it is essential to infer the unobserved graph from the outputs of a filtering system. In this paper, we study the problem of learning Cartesian product graphs under Laplacian constraints. The Cartesian graph product is a natural way for modeling higher-order conditional dependencies and is also the key for generalizing GSP to multi-way tensors. We establish statistical consistency for the penalized maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of a Cartesian product Laplacian, and propose an efficient algorithm to solve the problem. We also extend our method for efficient joint graph learning and imputation in the presence of structural missing values. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our method is superior to previous GSP and GM methods.

In this paper, we propose a novel approach to Bayesian Experimental Design (BED) for non-exchangeable data that formulates it as risk-sensitive policy optimization. We develop the Inside-Out SMC^2 algorithm that uses a nested sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) estimator of the expected information gain and embeds it into a particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (pMCMC) framework to perform gradient-based policy optimization. This is in contrast to recent approaches that rely on biased estimators of the expected information gain (EIG) to amortize the cost of experiments by learning a design policy in advance. Numerical validation on a set of dynamical systems showcases the efficacy of our method in comparison to other state-of-the-art strategies.

Machine learning models in modern mass-market applications are often updated over time. One of the foremost challenges faced is that, despite increasing overall performance, these updates may flip specific model predictions in unpredictable ways. In practice, researchers quantify the number of unstable predictions between models pre and post update -- i.e., predictive churn. In this paper, we study this effect through the lens of predictive multiplicity -- i.e., the prevalence of conflicting predictions over the set of near-optimal models (the Rashomon set). We show how traditional measures of predictive multiplicity can be used to examine expected churn over this set of prospective models -- i.e., the set of models that may be used to replace a baseline model in deployment. We present theoretical results on the expected churn between models within the Rashomon set from different perspectives. And we characterize expected churn over model updates via the Rashomon set, pairing our analysis with empirical results on real-world datasets -- showing how our approach can be used to better anticipate, reduce, and avoid churn in consumer-facing applications. Further, we show that our approach is useful even for models enhanced with uncertainty awareness.

Developmental AI is a bootstrapping approach where embodied AIs start with innate competences and learn by interacting with the world. They develop abilities in small steps along a bio-inspired trajectory. However, developmental AIs have not yet reached the abilities of young children. In contrast, mainstream approaches for creating AIs have led to valuable AI systems and impressive feats. These approaches include deep learning and generative approaches (e.g., large language models) and manually constructed symbolic approaches. Manually constructed AIs are brittle even in circumscribed domains. Generative AIs are helpful on average, but they can make strange mistakes and not notice them. They sometimes lack common sense and social alignment. This position paper lays out prospects, gaps, and challenges for augmenting AI mainstream approaches with developmental AI. The ambition is to create data-rich experientially based foundation models and human-compatible, resilient, and trustworthy AIs. This research aims to produce AIs that learn to communicate, establish common ground, read critically, consider the provenance of information, test hypotheses, and collaborate. A virtuous multidisciplinary research cycle has led to developmental AIs with capabilities for multimodal perception, object recognition, and manipulation. Computational models for hierarchical planning, abstraction discovery, curiosity, and language acquisition exist but need to be adapted to an embodied learning approach. They need to bridge competence gaps involving nonverbal communication, speech, reading, and writing. Aspirationally, developmental AIs would learn, share what they learn, and collaborate to achieve high standards. The approach would make the creation of AIs more democratic, enabling more people to train, test, build on, and replicate AIs.

Federated learning (FL) is a machine learning paradigm where the clients possess decentralized training data and the central server handles aggregation and scheduling. Typically, FL algorithms involve clients training their local models using stochastic gradient descent (SGD), which carries drawbacks such as slow convergence and being prone to getting stuck in suboptimal solutions. In this work, we propose a message passing based Bayesian federated learning (BFL) framework to avoid these drawbacks.Specifically, we formulate the problem of deep neural network (DNN) learning and compression and as a sparse Bayesian inference problem, in which group sparse prior is employed to achieve structured model compression. Then, we propose an efficient BFL algorithm called EMTDAMP, where expectation maximization (EM) and turbo deep approximate message passing (TDAMP) are combined to achieve distributed learning and compression. The central server aggregates local posterior distributions to update global posterior distributions and update hyperparameters based on EM to accelerate convergence. The clients perform TDAMP to achieve efficient approximate message passing over DNN with joint prior distribution. We detail the application of EMTDAMP to Boston housing price prediction and handwriting recognition, and present extensive numerical results to demonstrate the advantages of EMTDAMP.

The beta distribution serves as a canonical tool for modeling probabilities and is extensively used in statistics and machine learning, especially in the field of Bayesian nonparametrics. Despite its widespread use, there is limited work on flexible and computationally convenient stochastic process extensions for modeling dependent random probabilities. We propose a novel stochastic process called the logistic-beta process, whose logistic transformation yields a stochastic process with common beta marginals. Similar to the Gaussian process, the logistic-beta process can model dependence on both discrete and continuous domains, such as space or time, and has a highly flexible dependence structure through correlation kernels. Moreover, its normal variance-mean mixture representation leads to highly effective posterior inference algorithms. The flexibility and computational benefits of logistic-beta processes are demonstrated through nonparametric binary regression simulation studies. Furthermore, we apply the logistic-beta process in modeling dependent Dirichlet processes, and illustrate its application and benefits through Bayesian density regression problems in a toxicology study.