We study automated security response for an IT infrastructure and formulate the interaction between an attacker and a defender as a partially observed, non-stationary game. We relax the standard assumption that the game model is correctly specified and consider that each player has a probabilistic conjecture about the model, which may be misspecified in the sense that the true model has probability 0. This formulation allows us to capture uncertainty about the infrastructure and the intents of the players. To learn effective game strategies online, we design a novel method where a player iteratively adapts its conjecture using Bayesian learning and updates its strategy through rollout. We prove that the conjectures converge to best fits, and we provide a bound on the performance improvement that rollout enables with a conjectured model. To characterize the steady state of the game, we propose a variant of the Berk-Nash equilibrium. We present our method through an advanced persistent threat use case. Simulation studies based on testbed measurements show that our method produces effective security strategies that adapt to a changing environment. We also find that our method enables faster convergence than current reinforcement learning techniques.

This paper introduces a Bayesian framework for image inversion by deriving a probabilistic counterpart to the regularization-by-denoising (RED) paradigm. It additionally implements a Monte Carlo algorithm specifically tailored for sampling from the resulting posterior distribution, based on an asymptotically exact data augmentation (AXDA). The proposed algorithm is an approximate instance of split Gibbs sampling (SGS) which embeds one Langevin Monte Carlo step. The proposed method is applied to common imaging tasks such as deblurring, inpainting and super-resolution, demonstrating its efficacy through extensive numerical experiments. These contributions advance Bayesian inference in imaging by leveraging data-driven regularization strategies within a probabilistic framework.

Fine-tuning large language models can improve task specific performance, although a general understanding of what the fine-tuned model has learned, forgotten and how to trust its predictions is still missing. We derive principled uncertainty quantification for fine-tuned LLMs with posterior approximations using computationally efficient low-rank adaptation ensembles. We analyze three common multiple-choice datasets using low-rank adaptation ensembles based on Mistral-7b, and draw quantitative and qualitative conclusions on their perceived complexity and model efficacy on the different target domains during and after fine-tuning. In particular, backed by the numerical experiments, we hypothesise about signals from entropic uncertainty measures for data domains that are inherently difficult for a given architecture to learn.

A persistent challenge in conditional image synthesis has been to generate diverse output images from the same input image despite only one output image being observed per input image. GAN-based methods are prone to mode collapse, which leads to low diversity. To get around this, we leverage Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation (IMLE) which can overcome mode collapse fundamentally. IMLE uses the same generator as GANs but trains it with a different, non-adversarial objective which ensures each observed image has a generated sample nearby. Unfortunately, to generate high-fidelity images, prior IMLE-based methods require a large number of samples, which is expensive. In this paper, we propose a new method to get around this limitation, which we dub Conditional Hierarchical IMLE (CHIMLE), which can generate high-fidelity images without requiring many samples. We show CHIMLE significantly outperforms the prior best IMLE, GAN and diffusion-based methods in terms of image fidelity and mode coverage across four tasks, namely night-to-day, 16 single image super-resolution, image colourization and image decompression. Quantitatively, our method improves Fréchet Inception Distance (FID) by 36.9% on average compared to the prior best IMLE-based method, and by 27.5% on average compared to the best non-IMLE-based generalpurpose methods. More results and code are available on the project website at https://niopeng.github.io/CHIMLE/.

Images are ambiguous at each of many levels of a contextual hi(cid:173) erarchy. Nevertheless, the high-level interpretation of most scenes is unambiguous, as evidenced by the superior performance of hu(cid:173) mans. This observation argues for global vision models, such as de(cid:173) formable templates. Unfortunately, such models are computation(cid:173) ally intractable for unconstrained problems. We propose a composi(cid:173) tional model in which primitives are recursively composed, subject to syntactic restrictions, to form tree-structured objects and object groupings.

In previous work [6, 9, 10], we advanced a new technique for direct visual matching of images for the purposes of face recognition and image retrieval, using a probabilistic measure of similarity based primarily on a Bayesian (MAP) analysis of image differ(cid:173) ences, leading to a "dual" basis similar to eigenfaces [13]. The performance advantage of this probabilistic matching technique over standard Euclidean nearest-neighbor eigenface matching was recently demonstrated using results from DARPA's 1996 "FERET" face recognition competition, in which this probabilistic matching algorithm was found to be the top performer. We have further developed a simple method of replacing the costly com put ion of nonlinear (online) Bayesian similarity measures by the relatively inexpensive computation of linear (offline) subspace projections and simple (online) Euclidean norms, thus resulting in a significant computational speed-up for implementation with very large image databases as typically encountered in real-world applications.

We describe Maximum-Likelihood Continuity Mapping (MALCOM), an alternative to hidden Markov models (HMMs) for processing sequence data such as speech. While HMMs have a discrete "hidden" space con(cid:173) strained by a fixed finite-automaton architecture, MALCOM has a con(cid:173) tinuous hidden space-a continuity map-that is constrained only by a smoothness requirement on paths through the space. MALCOM fits into the same probabilistic framework for speech recognition as HMMs, but it represents a more realistic model of the speech production process. To evaluate the extent to which MALCOM captures speech production information, we generated continuous speech continuity maps for three speakers and used the paths through them to predict measured speech articulator data. The median correlation between the MALCOM paths obtained from only the speech acoustics and articulator measurements was 0.77 on an independent test set not used to train MALCOM or the predictor.

This survey paper presents a comprehensive analysis of crime prediction methodologies, exploring the various techniques and technologies utilized in this area. The paper covers the statistical methods, machine learning algorithms, and deep learning techniques employed to analyze crime data, while also examining their effectiveness and limitations. We propose a methodological taxonomy that classifies crime prediction algorithms into specific techniques. This taxonomy is structured into four tiers, including methodology category, methodology sub-category, methodology techniques, and methodology sub-techniques. Empirical and experimental evaluations are provided to rank the different techniques. The empirical evaluation assesses the crime prediction techniques based on four criteria, while the experimental evaluation ranks the algorithms that employ the same sub-technique, the different sub-techniques that employ the same technique, the different techniques that employ the same methodology sub-category, the different methodology sub-categories within the same category, and the different methodology categories. The combination of methodological taxonomy, empirical evaluations, and experimental comparisons allows for a nuanced and comprehensive understanding of crime prediction algorithms, aiding researchers in making informed decisions. Finally, the paper provides a glimpse into the future of crime prediction techniques, highlighting potential advancements and opportunities for further research in this field

Bayesian optimization is a widely used technique for optimizing black-box functions, with Expected Improvement (EI) being the most commonly utilized acquisition function in this domain. While EI is often viewed as distinct from other information-theoretic acquisition functions, such as entropy search (ES) and max-value entropy search (MES), our work reveals that EI can be considered a special case of MES when approached through variational inference (VI). In this context, we have developed the Variational Entropy Search (VES) methodology and the VES-Gamma algorithm, which adapts EI by incorporating principles from information-theoretic concepts. The efficacy of VES-Gamma is demonstrated across a variety of test functions and read datasets, highlighting its theoretical and practical utilities in Bayesian optimization scenarios.

The standard approach to Computational Learning Theory is usually formulated within the so-called frequentist approach to Statistics. Within this paradigm one is interested in constructing an estimator, based on a flnite sample, which possesses a small loss (generalization error). While many algorithms have been constructed and analyzed within this context, it is not clear how these approaches relate to standard optimality criteria within the frequentist framework. Two classic optimality criteria within the latter approach are the minimax and admissibility criteria, which charac- terize optimality of estimators in a rigorous and precise fashion [9]. Except in some special cases [12], it is not known whether any of the approaches used within the Learning community lead to optimality in either of the above senses of the word. On the other hand, it is known that under certain regularity conditions, Bayesian estimators lead to either minimax or admissible estimators, and thus to well-deflned optimality in the classical (frequentist) sense. In fact, it can be shown that Bayes estimators are essentially the only estimators which can achieve optimality in the above senses [9]. This optimality feature provides strong motivation for the study of Bayesian approaches in a frequentist setting.