Computing a {\em maximum a posteriori} (MAP) assignment in graphical models is a crucial inference problem for many practical applications. Several provably convergent approaches have been successfully developed using linear programming (LP) relaxation of the MAP problem. We present an alternative approach, which transforms the MAP problem into that of inference in a finite mixture of simple Bayes nets. We then derive the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm for this mixture that also monotonically increases a lower bound on the MAP assignment until convergence. The update equations for the EM algorithm are remarkably simple, both conceptually and computationally, and can be implemented using a graph-based message passing paradigm similar to max-product computation.

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) offer uncertainty quantification but come with the downside of substantially increased training and inference costs. Sparse BNNs have been investigated for efficient inference, typically by either slowly introducing sparsity throughout the training or by post-training compression of dense BNNs. The dilemma of how to cut down massive training costs remains, particularly given the requirement to learn about the uncertainty. To solve this challenge, we introduce Sparse Subspace Variational Inference (SSVI), the first fully sparse BNN framework that maintains a consistently highly sparse Bayesian model throughout the training and inference phases. Starting from a randomly initialized low-dimensional sparse subspace, our approach alternately optimizes the sparse subspace basis selection and its associated parameters. While basis selection is characterized as a non-differentiable problem, we approximate the optimal solution with a removal-and-addition strategy, guided by novel criteria based on weight distribution statistics. Our extensive experiments show that SSVI sets new benchmarks in crafting sparse BNNs, achieving, for instance, a 10-20x compression in model size with under 3\% performance drop, and up to 20x FLOPs reduction during training compared with dense VI training. Remarkably, SSVI also demonstrates enhanced robustness to hyperparameters, reducing the need for intricate tuning in VI and occasionally even surpassing VI-trained dense BNNs on both accuracy and uncertainty metrics.

This paper develops flexible nowcasting and forecasting methods by combining elements from three strands of econometric literature. First, drawing from the mixed data sampling (MIDAS) framework introduced by Ghysels et al. (2007), see also Andreou et al. (2010), Ghysels (2016), or Ghysels et al. (2024) for a recent review, we leverage techniques that permit the efficient use of predictors sampled at a higher frequency than the target variable. Second, the Big Data literature, based on the idea that using a large set of predictors combined with penalized estimators or Bayesian shrinkage can improve predictive accuracy, see e.g., Babii et al. (2022) and Mogliani and Simoni (2021) in the context of mixed frequency models. Third, the machine learning literature, which postulates that proper algorithms combined with computing power can uncover complicated relationships among variables (economic and financial ones, in our case) and hence improve predictions, see e.g., Hastie et al. (2009). Our baseline framework uses Gaussian Processes (GPs) to estimate the unknown and perhaps nonlinear relationships between a target variable and a large set of mixed frequency predictors nonparametrically.

Distinguishing sources of predictive uncertainty is of crucial importance in the application of forecasting models across various domains. Despite the presence of a great variety of proposed uncertainty measures, there are no strict definitions to disentangle them. Furthermore, the relationship between different measures of uncertainty quantification remains somewhat unclear. In this work, we introduce a general framework, rooted in statistical reasoning, which not only allows the creation of new uncertainty measures but also clarifies their interrelations. Our approach leverages statistical risk to distinguish aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty components and utilizes proper scoring rules to quantify them. To make it practically tractable, we propose an idea to incorporate Bayesian reasoning into this framework and discuss the properties of the proposed approximation.

Goal recognition is a fundamental cognitive process that enables individuals to infer intentions based on available cues. Current goal recognition algorithms often take only observed actions as input, but here we use a Bayesian framework to explore the role of actions, timing, and goal solvability in goal recognition. We analyze human responses to goal-recognition problems in the Sokoban domain, and find that actions are assigned most importance, but that timing and solvability also influence goal recognition in some cases, especially when actions are uninformative. We leverage these findings to develop a goal recognition model that matches human inferences more closely than do existing algorithms. Our work provides new insight into human goal recognition and takes a step towards more human-like AI models.

When multiple agents interact in a common environment, each agent's actions impact others' future decisions, and noncooperative dynamic games naturally capture this coupling. In interactive motion planning, however, agents typically do not have access to a complete model of the game, e.g., due to unknown objectives of other players. Therefore, we consider the inverse game problem, in which some properties of the game are unknown a priori and must be inferred from observations. Existing maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) approaches to solve inverse games provide only point estimates of unknown parameters without quantifying uncertainty, and perform poorly when many parameter values explain the observed behavior. To address these limitations, we take a Bayesian perspective and construct posterior distributions of game parameters. To render inference tractable, we employ a variational autoencoder (VAE) with an embedded differentiable game solver. This structured VAE can be trained from an unlabeled dataset of observed interactions, naturally handles continuous, multi-modal distributions, and supports efficient sampling from the inferred posteriors without computing game solutions at runtime. Extensive evaluations in simulated driving scenarios demonstrate that the proposed approach successfully learns the prior and posterior objective distributions, provides more accurate objective estimates than MLE baselines, and facilitates safer and more efficient game-theoretic motion planning.

With the development of audio playback devices and fast data transmission, the demand for high sound quality is rising, for both entertainment and communications. In this quest for better sound quality, challenges emerge from distortions and interferences originating at the recording side or caused by an imperfect transmission pipeline. To address this problem, audio restoration methods aim to recover clean sound signals from the corrupted input data. We present here audio restoration algorithms based on diffusion models, with a focus on speech enhancement and music restoration tasks. Traditional approaches, often grounded in handcrafted rules and statistical heuristics, have shaped our understanding of audio signals. In the past decades, there has been a notable shift towards data-driven methods that exploit the modeling capabilities of deep neural networks (DNNs). Deep generative models, and among them diffusion models, have emerged as powerful techniques for learning complex data distributions. However, relying solely on DNN-based learning approaches carries the risk of reducing interpretability, particularly when employing end-to-end models. Nonetheless, data-driven approaches allow more flexibility in comparison to statistical model-based frameworks whose performance depends on distributional and statistical assumptions that can be difficult to guarantee. Here, we aim to show that diffusion models can combine the best of both worlds and offer the opportunity to design audio restoration algorithms with a good degree of interpretability and a remarkable performance in terms of sound quality.

Efficient exploration is a key challenge in contextual bandits due to the large size of their action space, where uninformed exploration can result in computational and statistical inefficiencies. Fortunately, the rewards of actions are often correlated and this can be leveraged to explore them efficiently. In this work, we capture such correlations using pre-trained diffusion models; upon which we design diffusion Thompson sampling (dTS). Both theoretical and algorithmic foundations are developed for dTS, and empirical evaluation also shows its favorable performance.

This paper considers the challenges that Large Language Models (LLMs) face when reasoning over text that includes information involving uncertainty explicitly quantified via probability values. This type of reasoning is relevant to a variety of contexts ranging from everyday conversations to medical decision-making. Despite improvements in the mathematical reasoning capabilities of LLMs, they still exhibit significant difficulties when it comes to probabilistic reasoning. To deal with this problem, we first introduce the Bayesian Linguistic Inference Dataset (BLInD), a new dataset specifically designed to test the probabilistic reasoning capabilities of LLMs. We then leverage this new dataset to thoroughly illustrate the specific limitations of LLMs for tasks involving probabilistic reasoning and present several strategies that map the problem to different formal representations, including Python code, probabilistic inference algorithms, and probabilistic logical programming. We Figure 1: An example from the BLInD dataset including conclude by providing an evaluation of our methods an underlying Bayesian network, its textual description, and on BLInD and on an adaptation of a causal reasoning probabilistic queries in natural language.

We introduce squared neural Poisson point processes (SNEPPPs) by parameterising the intensity function by the squared norm of a two layer neural network. When the hidden layer is fixed and the second layer has a single neuron, our approach resembles previous uses of squared Gaussian process or kernel methods, but allowing the hidden layer to be learnt allows for additional flexibility. In many cases of interest, the integrated intensity function admits a closed form and can be computed in quadratic time in the number of hidden neurons. We enumerate a far more extensive number of such cases than has previously been discussed. Our approach is more memory and time efficient than naive implementations of squared or exponentiated kernel methods or Gaussian processes. Maximum likelihood and maximum a posteriori estimates in a reparameterisation of the final layer of the intensity function can be obtained by solving a (strongly) convex optimisation problem using projected gradient descent. We demonstrate SNEPPPs on real, and synthetic benchmarks, and provide a software implementation. https://github.com/RussellTsuchida/snefy