Olfaction sensing in autonomous robotics faces challenges in dynamic operations, energy efficiency, and edge processing. It necessitates a machine learning algorithm capable of managing real-world odor interference, ensuring resource efficiency for mobile robotics, and accurately estimating gas features for critical tasks such as odor mapping, localization, and alarm generation. This paper introduces a hybrid approach that exploits neuromorphic computing in combination with probabilistic inference to address these demanding requirements. Our approach implements a combination of a convolutional spiking neural network for feature extraction and a Bayesian spiking neural network for odor detection and identification. The developed algorithm is rigorously tested on a dataset for sensor drift compensation for robustness evaluation. Additionally, for efficiency evaluation, we compare the energy consumption of our model with a non-spiking machine learning algorithm under identical dataset and operating conditions. Our approach demonstrates superior efficiency alongside comparable accuracy outcomes.

Reconstructing jets, which provide vital insights into the properties and histories of subatomic particles produced in high-energy collisions, is a main problem in data analyses in collider physics. This intricate task deals with estimating the latent structure of a jet (binary tree) and involves parameters such as particle energy, momentum, and types. While Bayesian methods offer a natural approach for handling uncertainty and leveraging prior knowledge, they face significant challenges due to the super-exponential growth of potential jet topologies as the number of observed particles increases. To address this, we introduce a Combinatorial Sequential Monte Carlo approach for inferring jet latent structures. As a second contribution, we leverage the resulting estimator to develop a variational inference algorithm for parameter learning. Building on this, we introduce a variational family using a pseudo-marginal framework for a fully Bayesian treatment of all variables, unifying the generative model with the inference process. We illustrate our method's effectiveness through experiments using data generated with a collider physics generative model, highlighting superior speed and accuracy across a range of tasks.

Working with cognate data involves handling synonyms, that is, multiple words that describe the same concept in a language. In the early days of language phylogenetics it was recommended to select one synonym only. However, as we show here, binary character matrices, which are used as input for computational methods, do allow for representing the entire dataset including all synonyms. Here we address the question how one can and if one should include all synonyms or whether it is preferable to select synonyms a priori. To this end, we perform maximum likelihood tree inferences with the widely used RAxML-NG tool and show that it yields plausible trees when all synonyms are used as input. Furthermore, we show that a priori synonym selection can yield topologically substantially different trees and we therefore advise against doing so. To represent cognate data including all synonyms, we introduce two types of character matrices beyond the standard binary ones: probabilistic binary and probabilistic multi-valued character matrices. We further show that it is dataset-dependent for which character matrix type the inferred RAxML-NG tree is topologically closest to the gold standard. We also make available a Python interface for generating all of the above character matrix types for cognate data provided in CLDF format.

Representing uncertainty in causal discovery is a crucial component for experimental design, and more broadly, for safe and reliable causal decision making. Bayesian Causal Discovery (BCD) offers a principled approach to encapsulating this uncertainty. Unlike non-Bayesian causal discovery, which relies on a single estimated causal graph and model parameters for assessment, evaluating BCD presents challenges due to the nature of its inferred quantity - the posterior distribution. As a result, the research community has proposed various metrics to assess the quality of the approximate posterior. However, there is, to date, no consensus on the most suitable metric(s) for evaluation. In this work, we reexamine this question by dissecting various metrics and understanding their limitations. Through extensive empirical evaluation, we find that many existing metrics fail to exhibit a strong correlation with the quality of approximation to the true posterior, especially in scenarios with low sample sizes where BCD is most desirable. We highlight the suitability (or lack thereof) of these metrics under two distinct factors: the identifiability of the underlying causal model and the quantity of available data. Both factors affect the entropy of the true posterior, indicating that the current metrics are less fitting in settings of higher entropy. Our findings underline the importance of a more nuanced evaluation of new methods by taking into account the nature of the true posterior, as well as guide and motivate the development of new evaluation procedures for this challenge.

Graph neural networks (GNNs) have been extensively employed in node classification. Nevertheless, recent studies indicate that GNNs are vulnerable to topological perturbations, such as adversarial attacks and edge disruptions. Considerable efforts have been devoted to mitigating these challenges. For example, pioneering Bayesian methodologies, including GraphSS and LlnDT, incorporate Bayesian label transitions and topology-based label sampling to strengthen the robustness of GNNs. However, GraphSS is hindered by slow convergence, while LlnDT faces challenges in sparse graphs. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel label inference framework, TraTopo, which combines topology-driven label propagation, Bayesian label transitions, and link analysis via random walks. TraTopo significantly surpasses its predecessors on sparse graphs by utilizing random walk sampling, specifically targeting isolated nodes for link prediction, thus enhancing its effectiveness in topological sampling contexts. Additionally, TraTopo employs a shortest-path strategy to refine link prediction, thereby reducing predictive overhead and improving label inference accuracy. Empirical evaluations highlight TraTopo's superiority in node classification, significantly exceeding contemporary GCN models in accuracy.

We formulate intrusion tolerance for a system with service replicas as a two-level optimal control problem. On the local level node controllers perform intrusion recovery, and on the global level a system controller manages the replication factor. The local and global control problems can be formulated as classical problems in operations research, namely, the machine replacement problem and the inventory replenishment problem. Based on this formulation, we design TOLERANCE, a novel control architecture for intrusion-tolerant systems. We prove that the optimal control strategies on both levels have threshold structure and design efficient algorithms for computing them. We implement and evaluate TOLERANCE in an emulation environment where we run 10 types of network intrusions. The results show that TOLERANCE can improve service availability and reduce operational cost compared with state-of-the-art intrusion-tolerant systems.

Latent Class Models (LCMs) are used to cluster multivariate categorical data, commonly used to interpret survey responses. We propose a novel Bayesian model called the Equivalence Set Restricted Latent Class Model (ESRLCM). This model identifies clusters who have common item response probabilities, and does so more generically than traditional restricted latent attribute models. We verify the identifiability of ESRLCMs, and demonstrate the effectiveness in both simulations and real-world applications.

We propose a Bayesian framework for fine-tuning large diffusion models with a novel network structure called Bayesian Power Steering (BPS). We clarify the meaning behind adaptation from a \textit{large probability space} to a \textit{small probability space} and explore the task of fine-tuning pre-trained models using learnable modules from a Bayesian perspective. BPS extracts task-specific knowledge from a pre-trained model's learned prior distribution. It efficiently leverages large diffusion models, differentially intervening different hidden features with a head-heavy and foot-light configuration. Experiments highlight the superiority of BPS over contemporary methods across a range of tasks even with limited amount of data. Notably, BPS attains an FID score of 10.49 under the sketch condition on the COCO17 dataset.

We consider deep neural networks in a Bayesian framework with a prior distribution sampling the network weights at random. Following a recent idea of Agapiou and Castillo (2023), who show that heavy-tailed prior distributions achieve automatic adaptation to smoothness, we introduce a simple Bayesian deep learning prior based on heavy-tailed weights and ReLU activation. We show that the corresponding posterior distribution achieves near-optimal minimax contraction rates, simultaneously adaptive to both intrinsic dimension and smoothness of the underlying function, in a variety of contexts including nonparametric regression, geometric data and Besov spaces. While most works so far need a form of model selection built-in within the prior distribution, a key aspect of our approach is that it does not require to sample hyperparameters to learn the architecture of the network. We also provide variational Bayes counterparts of the results, that show that mean-field variational approximations still benefit from near-optimal theoretical support.

We present an approach for modeling and imputation of nonignorable missing data under Gaussian copulas. The analyst posits a set of quantiles of the marginal distributions of the study variables, for example, reflecting information from external data sources or elicited expert opinion. When these quantiles are accurately specified, we prove it is possible to consistently estimate the copula correlation and perform multiple imputation in the presence of nonignorable missing data. We develop algorithms for estimation and imputation that are computationally efficient, which we evaluate in simulation studies of multiple imputation inferences. We apply the model to analyze associations between lead exposure levels and end-of-grade test scores for 170,000 students in North Carolina. These measurements are not missing at random, as children deemed at-risk for high lead exposure are more likely to be measured. We construct plausible marginal quantiles for lead exposure using national statistics provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Complete cases and missing at random analyses appear to underestimate the relationships between certain variables and end-of-grade test scores, while multiple imputation inferences under our model support stronger adverse associations between lead exposure and educational outcomes.