Diffusion models have emerged as effective distribution estimators in vision, language, and reinforcement learning, but their use as priors in downstream tasks poses an intractable posterior inference problem. This paper studies amortized sampling of the posterior over data, $\mathbf{x}\sim p^{\rm post}(\mathbf{x})\propto p(\mathbf{x})r(\mathbf{x})$, in a model that consists of a diffusion generative model prior $p(\mathbf{x})$ and a black-box constraint or likelihood function $r(\mathbf{x})$. We state and prove the asymptotic correctness of a data-free learning objective, relative trajectory balance, for training a diffusion model that samples from this posterior, a problem that existing methods solve only approximately or in restricted cases. Relative trajectory balance arises from the generative flow network perspective on diffusion models, which allows the use of deep reinforcement learning techniques to improve mode coverage. Experiments illustrate the broad potential of unbiased inference of arbitrary posteriors under diffusion priors: in vision (classifier guidance), language (infilling under a discrete diffusion LLM), and multimodal data (text-to-image generation). Beyond generative modeling, we apply relative trajectory balance to the problem of continuous control with a score-based behavior prior, achieving state-of-the-art results on benchmarks in offline reinforcement learning.

Large language models (LLMs) like transformers have impressive in-context learning (ICL) capabilities; they can generate predictions for new queries based on input-output sequences in prompts without parameter updates. While many theories have attempted to explain ICL, they often focus on structured training data similar to ICL tasks, such as regression. In practice, however, these models are trained in an unsupervised manner on unstructured text data, which bears little resemblance to ICL tasks. To this end, we investigate how ICL emerges from unsupervised training on unstructured data. The key observation is that ICL can arise simply by modeling co-occurrence information using classical language models like continuous bag of words (CBOW), which we theoretically prove and empirically validate. Furthermore, we establish the necessity of positional information and noise structure to generalize ICL to unseen data. Finally, we present instances where ICL fails and provide theoretical explanations; they suggest that the ICL ability of LLMs to identify certain tasks can be sensitive to the structure of the training data.

The practical use of Bayesian Optimization (BO) in engineering applications imposes special requirements: high sampling efficiency on the one hand and finding a robust solution on the other hand. We address the case of adversarial robustness, where all parameters are controllable during the optimization process, but a subset of them is uncontrollable or even adversely perturbed at the time of application. To this end, we develop an efficient information-based acquisition function that we call Robust Entropy Search (RES). We empirically demonstrate its benefits in experiments on synthetic and real-life data. The results showthat RES reliably finds robust optima, outperforming state-of-the-art algorithms.

Although theoretically compelling, Bayesian learning with modern machine learning models is computationally challenging since it requires approximating a high dimensional posterior distribution. In this work, we (i) introduce posteriors, an easily extensible PyTorch library hosting general-purpose implementations making Bayesian learning accessible and scalable to large data and parameter regimes; (ii) present a tempered framing of stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo, as implemented in posteriors, that transitions seamlessly into optimization and unveils a minor modification to deep ensembles to ensure they are asymptotically unbiased for the Bayesian posterior, and (iii) demonstrate and compare the utility of Bayesian approximations through experiments including an investigation into the cold posterior effect and applications with large language models.

Networked datasets are often enriched by different types of information about individual nodes or edges. However, most existing methods for analyzing such datasets struggle to handle the complexity of heterogeneous data, often requiring substantial model-specific analysis. In this paper, we develop a probabilistic generative model to perform inference in multilayer networks with arbitrary types of information. Our approach employs a Bayesian framework combined with the Laplace matching technique to ease interpretation of inferred parameters. Furthermore, the algorithmic implementation relies on automatic differentiation, avoiding the need for explicit derivations. This makes our model scalable and flexible to adapt to any combination of input data. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in detecting overlapping community structures and performing various prediction tasks on heterogeneous multilayer data, where nodes and edges have different types of attributes. Additionally, we showcase its ability to unveil a variety of patterns in a social support network among villagers in rural India by effectively utilizing all input information in a meaningful way.

A complete and statistically consistent uncertainty quantification for deep learning is provided, including the sources of uncertainty arising from (1) the new input data, (2) the training and testing data (3) the weight vectors of the neural network, and (4) the neural network because it is not a perfect predictor. Using Bayes Theorem and conditional probability densities, we demonstrate how each uncertainty source can be systematically quantified. We also introduce a fast and practical way to incorporate and combine all sources of errors for the first time. For illustration, the new method is applied to quantify errors in cloud autoconversion rates, predicted from an artificial neural network that was trained by aircraft cloud probe measurements in the Azores and the stochastic collection equation formulated as a two-moment bin model. For this specific example, the output uncertainty arising from uncertainty in the training and testing data is dominant, followed by uncertainty in the input data, in the trained neural network, and uncertainty in the weights. We discuss the usefulness of the methodology for machine learning practice, and how, through inclusion of uncertainty in the training data, the new methodology is less sensitive to input data that falls outside of the training data set.

Species subject to predation and environmental threats commonly exhibit variable periods of population boom and bust over long timescales. Understanding and predicting such behavior, especially given the inherent heterogeneity and stochasticity of exogenous driving factors over short timescales, is an ongoing challenge. A modeling paradigm gaining popularity in the ecological sciences for such multi-scale effects is to couple short-term continuous dynamics to long-term discrete updates. We develop a data-driven method utilizing weak-form equation learning to extract such hybrid governing equations for population dynamics and to estimate the requisite parameters using sparse intermittent measurements of the discrete and continuous variables. The method produces a set of short-term continuous dynamical system equations parametrized by long-term variables, and long-term discrete equations parametrized by short-term variables, allowing direct assessment of interdependencies between the two time scales. We demonstrate the utility of the method on a variety of ecological scenarios and provide extensive tests using models previously derived for epizootics experienced by the North American spongy moth (Lymantria dispar dispar).

Federated Semi-Supervised Learning (FSSL) leverages both labeled and unlabeled data on clients to collaboratively train a model.In FSSL, the heterogeneous data can introduce prediction bias into the model, causing the model's prediction to skew towards some certain classes. Existing FSSL methods primarily tackle this issue by enhancing consistency in model parameters or outputs. However, as the models themselves are biased, merely constraining their consistency is not sufficient to alleviate prediction bias. In this paper, we explore this bias from a Bayesian perspective and demonstrate that it principally originates from label prior bias within the training data. Building upon this insight, we propose a debiasing method for FSSL named FedDB. FedDB utilizes the Average Prediction Probability of Unlabeled Data (APP-U) to approximate the biased prior.During local training, FedDB employs APP-U to refine pseudo-labeling through Bayes' theorem, thereby significantly reducing the label prior bias. Concurrently, during the model aggregation, FedDB uses APP-U from participating clients to formulate unbiased aggregate weights, thereby effectively diminishing bias in the global model. Experimental results show that FedDB can surpass existing FSSL methods. The code is available at https://github.com/GuogangZhu/FedDB.

Predictive posterior densities (PPDs) are of interest in approximate Bayesian inference. Typically, these are estimated by simple Monte Carlo (MC) averages using samples from the approximate posterior. We observe that the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of such estimators can be extremely low. An analysis for exact inference reveals SNR decays exponentially as there is an increase in (a) the mismatch between training and test data, (b) the dimensionality of the latent space, or (c) the size of the test data relative to the training data. Further analysis extends these results to approximate inference. To remedy the low SNR problem, we propose replacing simple MC sampling with importance sampling using a proposal distribution optimized at test time on a variational proxy for the SNR and demonstrate that this yields greatly improved estimates.

We propose a novel approach to sequential Bayesian inference based on variational Bayes. The key insight is that, in the online setting, we do not need to add the KL term to regularize to the prior (which comes from the posterior at the previous timestep); instead we can optimize just the expected log-likelihood, performing a single step of natural gradient descent starting at the prior predictive. We prove this method recovers exact Bayesian inference if the model is conjugate, and empirically outperforms other online VB methods in the non-conjugate setting, such as online learning for neural networks, especially when controlling for computational costs.