Bayesian bandit algorithms with approximate Bayesian inference have been widely used in real-world applications. Nevertheless, their theoretical justification is less investigated in the literature, especially for contextual bandit problems. To fill this gap, we propose a general theoretical framework to analyze stochastic linear bandits in the presence of approximate inference and conduct regret analysis on two Bayesian bandit algorithms, Linear Thompson sampling (LinTS) and the extension of Bayesian Upper Confidence Bound, namely Linear Bayesian Upper Confidence Bound (LinBUCB). We demonstrate that both LinTS and LinBUCB can preserve their original rates of regret upper bound but with a sacrifice of larger constant terms when applied with approximate inference. These results hold for general Bayesian inference approaches, under the assumption that the inference error measured by two different $\alpha$-divergences is bounded. Additionally, by introducing a new definition of well-behaved distributions, we show that LinBUCB improves the regret rate of LinTS from $\tilde{O}(d^{3/2}\sqrt{T})$ to $\tilde{O}(d\sqrt{T})$, matching the minimax optimal rate. To our knowledge, this work provides the first regret bounds in the setting of stochastic linear bandits with bounded approximate inference errors.

Adversarial examples pose a security threat to many critical systems built on neural networks. While certified training improves robustness, it also decreases accuracy noticeably. Despite various proposals for addressing this issue, the significant accuracy drop remains. More importantly, it is not clear whether there is a certain fundamental limit on achieving robustness whilst maintaining accuracy. In this work, we offer a novel perspective based on Bayes errors. By adopting Bayes error to robustness analysis, we investigate the limit of certified robust accuracy, taking into account data distribution uncertainties. We first show that the accuracy inevitably decreases in the pursuit of robustness due to changed Bayes error in the altered data distribution. Subsequently, we establish an upper bound for certified robust accuracy, considering the distribution of individual classes and their boundaries. Our theoretical results are empirically evaluated on real-world datasets and are shown to be consistent with the limited success of existing certified training results, e.g., for CIFAR10, our analysis results in an upper bound (of certified robust accuracy) of 67.49\%, meanwhile existing approaches are only able to increase it from 53.89\% in 2017 to 62.84\% in 2023.

A novel framework for Bayesian structural model updating is presented in this study. The proposed method utilizes the surrogate unimodal encoders of a multimodal variational autoencoder (VAE). The method facilitates an approximation of the likelihood when dealing with a small number of observations. It is particularly suitable for high-dimensional correlated simultaneous observations applicable to various dynamic analysis models. The proposed approach was benchmarked using a numerical model of a single-story frame building with acceleration and dynamic strain measurements. Additionally, an example involving a Bayesian update of nonlinear model parameters for a three-degree-of-freedom lumped mass model demonstrates computational efficiency when compared to using the original VAE, while maintaining adequate accuracy for practical applications.

Graphs serve as generic tools to encode the underlying relational structure of data. Often this graph is not given, and so the task of inferring it from nodal observations becomes important. Traditional approaches formulate a convex inverse problem with a smoothness promoting objective and rely on iterative methods to obtain a solution. In supervised settings where graph labels are available, one can unroll and truncate these iterations into a deep network that is trained end-to-end. Such a network is parameter efficient and inherits inductive bias from the optimization formulation, an appealing aspect for data constrained settings in, e.g., medicine, finance, and the natural sciences. But typically such settings care equally about uncertainty over edge predictions, not just point estimates. Here we introduce novel iterations with independently interpretable parameters, i.e., parameters whose values - independent of other parameters' settings - proportionally influence characteristics of the estimated graph, such as edge sparsity. After unrolling these iterations, prior knowledge over such graph characteristics shape prior distributions over these independently interpretable network parameters to yield a Bayesian neural network (BNN) capable of graph structure learning (GSL) from smooth signal observations. Fast execution and parameter efficiency allow for high-fidelity posterior approximation via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and thus uncertainty quantification on edge predictions. Synthetic and real data experiments corroborate this model's ability to provide well-calibrated estimates of uncertainty, in test cases that include unveiling economic sector modular structure from S$\&$P$500$ data and recovering pairwise digit similarities from MNIST images. Overall, this framework enables GSL in modest-scale applications where uncertainty on the data structure is paramount.

We introduce a class of algorithms, termed Proximal Interacting Particle Langevin Algorithms (PIPLA), for inference and learning in latent variable models whose joint probability density is non-differentiable. Leveraging proximal Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques and the recently introduced interacting particle Langevin algorithm (IPLA), we propose several variants within the novel proximal IPLA family, tailored to the problem of estimating parameters in a non-differentiable statistical model. We prove nonasymptotic bounds for the parameter estimates produced by multiple algorithms in the strongly log-concave setting and provide comprehensive numerical experiments on various models to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods. In particular, we demonstrate the utility of the proposed family of algorithms on a toy hierarchical example where our assumptions can be checked, as well as on the problems of sparse Bayesian logistic regression, sparse Bayesian neural network, and sparse matrix completion. Our theory and experiments together show that PIPLA family can be the de facto choice for parameter estimation problems in latent variable models for non-differentiable models.

We introduce an algorithm that simplifies the construction of efficient estimators, making them accessible to a broader audience. 'Dimple' takes as input computer code representing a parameter of interest and outputs an efficient estimator. Unlike standard approaches, it does not require users to derive a functional derivative known as the efficient influence function. Dimple avoids this task by applying automatic differentiation to the statistical functional of interest. Doing so requires expressing this functional as a composition of primitives satisfying a novel differentiability condition. Dimple also uses this composition to determine the nuisances it must estimate. In software, primitives can be implemented independently of one another and reused across different estimation problems. We provide a proof-of-concept Python implementation and showcase through examples how it allows users to go from parameter specification to efficient estimation with just a few lines of code.

The Rasch model, a classical model in the item response theory, is widely used in psychometrics to model the relationship between individuals' latent traits and their binary responses on assessments or questionnaires. In this paper, we introduce a new likelihood-based estimator -- random pairing maximum likelihood estimator ($\mathsf{RP\text{-}MLE}$) and its bootstrapped variant multiple random pairing MLE ($\mathsf{MRP\text{-}MLE}$) that faithfully estimate the item parameters in the Rasch model. The new estimators have several appealing features compared to existing ones. First, both work for sparse observations, an increasingly important scenario in the big data era. Second, both estimators are provably minimax optimal in terms of finite sample $\ell_{\infty}$ estimation error. Lastly, $\mathsf{RP\text{-}MLE}$ admits precise distributional characterization that allows uncertainty quantification on the item parameters, e.g., construction of confidence intervals of the item parameters. The main idea underlying $\mathsf{RP\text{-}MLE}$ and $\mathsf{MRP\text{-}MLE}$ is to randomly pair user-item responses to form item-item comparisons. This is carefully designed to reduce the problem size while retaining statistical independence. We also provide empirical evidence of the efficacy of the two new estimators using both simulated and real data.

Precision matrices are crucial in many fields such as social networks, neuroscience, and economics, representing the edge structure of Gaussian graphical models (GGMs), where a zero in an off-diagonal position of the precision matrix indicates conditional independence between nodes. In high-dimensional settings where the dimension of the precision matrix $p$ exceeds the sample size $n$ and the matrix is sparse, methods like graphical Lasso, graphical SCAD, and CLIME are popular for estimating GGMs. While frequentist methods are well-studied, Bayesian approaches for (unstructured) sparse precision matrices are less explored. The graphical horseshoe estimate by \citet{li2019graphical}, applying the global-local horseshoe prior, shows superior empirical performance, but theoretical work for sparse precision matrix estimations using shrinkage priors is limited. This paper addresses these gaps by providing concentration results for the tempered posterior with the fully specified horseshoe prior in high-dimensional settings. Moreover, we also provide novel theoretical results for model misspecification, offering a general oracle inequality for the posterior.

For an autonomous vehicle to operate reliably within real-world traffic scenarios, it is imperative to assess the repercussions of its prospective actions by anticipating the uncertain intentions exhibited by other participants in the traffic environment. Driven by the pronounced multi-modal nature of human driving behavior, this paper presents an approach that leverages Bayesian beliefs over the distribution of potential policies of other road users to construct a novel risk-aware probabilistic motion planning framework. In particular, we propose a novel contingency planner that outputs long-term contingent plans conditioned on multiple possible intents for other actors in the traffic scene. The Bayesian belief is incorporated into the optimization cost function to influence the behavior of the short-term plan based on the likelihood of other agents' policies. Furthermore, a probabilistic risk metric is employed to fine-tune the balance between efficiency and robustness. Through a series of closed-loop safety-critical simulated traffic scenarios shared with human-driven vehicles, we demonstrate the practical efficacy of our proposed approach that can handle multi-vehicle scenarios.

Robust aggregation integrates predictions from multiple experts without knowledge of the experts' information structures. Prior work assumes experts are Bayesian, providing predictions as perfect posteriors based on their signals. However, real-world experts often deviate systematically from Bayesian reasoning. Our work considers experts who tend to ignore the base rate. We find that a certain degree of base rate neglect helps with robust forecast aggregation. Specifically, we consider a forecast aggregation problem with two experts who each predict a binary world state after observing private signals. Unlike previous work, we model experts exhibiting base rate neglect, where they incorporate the base rate information to degree $\lambda\in[0,1]$, with $\lambda=0$ indicating complete ignorance and $\lambda=1$ perfect Bayesian updating. To evaluate aggregators' performance, we adopt Arieli et al. (2018)'s worst-case regret model, which measures the maximum regret across the set of considered information structures compared to an omniscient benchmark. Our results reveal the surprising V-shape of regret as a function of $\lambda$. That is, predictions with an intermediate incorporating degree of base rate $\lambda<1$ can counter-intuitively lead to lower regret than perfect Bayesian posteriors with $\lambda=1$. We additionally propose a new aggregator with low regret robust to unknown $\lambda$. Finally, we conduct an empirical study to test the base rate neglect model and evaluate the performance of various aggregators.