In recent years, computational improvements have allowed for more nuanced, data-driven and geographically explicit agent-based simulations. So far, simulations have struggled to adequately represent the attributes that motivate the actions of the agents. In fact, existing population synthesis frameworks generate agent profiles limited to socio-demographic attributes. In this paper, we introduce a novel value-enriched population synthesis framework that integrates a motivational layer with the traditional individual and household socio-demographic layers. Our research highlights the significance of extending the profile of agents in synthetic populations by incorporating data on values, ideologies, opinions and vital priorities, which motivate the agents' behaviour. This motivational layer can help us develop a more nuanced decision-making mechanism for the agents in social simulation settings. Our methodology integrates microdata and macrodata within different Bayesian network structures. This contribution allows to generate synthetic populations with integrated value systems that preserve the inherent socio-demographic distributions of the real population in any specific region.

Conventional Bayesian optimal experimental design seeks to maximize the expected information gain (EIG) on model parameters. However, the end goal of the experiment often is not to learn the model parameters, but to predict downstream quantities of interest (QoIs) that depend on the learned parameters. And designs that offer high EIG for parameters may not translate to high EIG for QoIs. Goal-oriented optimal experimental design (GO-OED) thus directly targets to maximize the EIG of QoIs. We introduce LF-GO-OED (likelihood-free goal-oriented optimal experimental design), a computational method for conducting GO-OED with nonlinear observation and prediction models. LF-GO-OED is specifically designed to accommodate implicit models, where the likelihood is intractable. In particular, it builds a density ratio estimator from samples generated from approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), thereby sidestepping the need for likelihood evaluations or density estimations. The overall method is validated on benchmark problems with existing methods, and demonstrated on scientific applications of epidemiology and neural science.

Bayesian Physics Informed Neural Networks (BPINN) have received considerable attention for inferring differential equations' system states and physical parameters according to noisy observations. However, in practice, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) used to estimate the internal parameters of BPINN often encounters troubles, including poor performance and awful convergence for a given step size used to adjust the momentum of those parameters. To improve the efficacy of HMC convergence for the BPINN method and extend its application scope to multi-scale partial differential equations (PDE), we developed a robust multi-scale Bayesian PINN (dubbed MBPINN) method by integrating multi-scale deep neural networks (MscaleDNN) and Bayesian inference. In this newly proposed MBPINN method, we reframe HMC with Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) to ensure the most ``likely'' estimation is always provided, and we configure its solver as a Fourier feature mapping-induced MscaleDNN. The MBPINN method offers several key advantages: (1) it is more robust than HMC, (2) it incurs less computational cost than HMC, and (3) it is more flexible for complex problems. We demonstrate the applicability and performance of the proposed method through general Poisson and multi-scale elliptic problems in one- to three-dimensional spaces. Our findings indicate that the proposed method can avoid HMC failures and provide valid results. Additionally, our method can handle complex PDE and produce comparable results for general PDE. These findings suggest that our proposed approach has excellent potential for physics-informed machine learning for parameter estimation and solution recovery in the case of ill-posed problems.

PAC-Bayesian bounds have proven to be a valuable tool for deriving generalization bounds and for designing new learning algorithms in machine learning. However, it typically focus on providing generalization bounds with respect to a chosen loss function. In classification tasks, due to the non-convex nature of the 0-1 loss, a convex surrogate loss is often used, and thus current PAC-Bayesian bounds are primarily specified for this convex surrogate. This work shifts its focus to providing misclassification excess risk bounds for PAC-Bayesian classification when using a convex surrogate loss. Our key ingredient here is to leverage PAC-Bayesian relative bounds in expectation rather than relying on PAC-Bayesian bounds in probability. We demonstrate our approach in several important applications.

Estimation of cardiovascular model parameters from electronic health records (EHR) poses a significant challenge primarily due to lack of identifiability. Structural non-identifiability arises when a manifold in the space of parameters is mapped to a common output, while practical non-identifiability can result due to limited data, model misspecification, or noise corruption. To address the resulting ill-posed inverse problem, optimization-based or Bayesian inference approaches typically use regularization, thereby limiting the possibility of discovering multiple solutions. In this study, we use inVAErt networks, a neural network-based, data-driven framework for enhanced digital twin analysis of stiff dynamical systems. We demonstrate the flexibility and effectiveness of inVAErt networks in the context of physiological inversion of a six-compartment lumped parameter hemodynamic model from synthetic data to real data with missing components.

Data-driven discovery of partial differential equations (PDEs) has emerged as a promising approach for deriving governing physics when domain knowledge about observed data is limited. Despite recent progress, the identification of governing equations and their parametric dependencies using conventional information criteria remains challenging in noisy situations, as the criteria tend to select overly complex PDEs. In this paper, we introduce an extension of the uncertainty-penalized Bayesian information criterion (UBIC), which is adapted to solve parametric PDE discovery problems efficiently without requiring computationally expensive PDE simulations. This extended UBIC uses quantified PDE uncertainty over different temporal or spatial points to prevent overfitting in model selection. The UBIC is computed with data transformation based on power spectral densities to discover the governing parametric PDE that truly captures qualitative features in frequency space with a few significant terms and their parametric dependencies (i.e., the varying PDE coefficients), evaluated with confidence intervals. Numerical experiments on canonical PDEs demonstrate that our extended UBIC can identify the true number of terms and their varying coefficients accurately, even in the presence of noise. The code is available at \url{https://github.com/Pongpisit-Thanasutives/parametric-discovery}.

Model parsimony is an important \emph{cognitive bias} in data-driven modelling that aids interpretability and helps to prevent over-fitting. Sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) methods are able to learn sparse representations of complex dynamics directly from data, given a basis of library functions. In this work, a novel Bayesian treatment of dictionary learning system identification, as an alternative to SINDy, is envisaged. The proposed method -- Bayesian identification of nonlinear dynamics (BINDy) -- is distinct from previous approaches in that it targets the full joint posterior distribution over both the terms in the library and their parameterisation in the model. This formulation confers the advantage that an arbitrary prior may be placed over the model structure to produce models that are sparse in the model space rather than in parameter space. Because this posterior is defined over parameter vectors that can change in dimension, the inference cannot be performed by standard techniques. Instead, a Gibbs sampler based on reversible-jump Markov-chain Monte-Carlo is proposed. BINDy is shown to compare favourably to ensemble SINDy in three benchmark case-studies. In particular, it is seen that the proposed method is better able to assign high probability to correct model terms.

Large language models (LLMs) have emerged as powerful tools in various domains. Recent studies have shown that LLMs can surpass humans in certain tasks, such as predicting the outcomes of neuroscience studies. What role does this leave for humans in the overall decision process? One possibility is that humans, despite performing worse than LLMs, can still add value when teamed with them. A human and machine team can surpass each individual teammate when team members' confidence is well-calibrated and team members diverge in which tasks they find difficult (i.e., calibration and diversity are needed). We simplified and extended a Bayesian approach to combining judgments using a logistic regression framework that integrates confidence-weighted judgments for any number of team members. Using this straightforward method, we demonstrated in a neuroscience forecasting task that, even when humans were inferior to LLMs, their combination with one or more LLMs consistently improved team performance. Our hope is that this simple and effective strategy for integrating the judgments of humans and machines will lead to productive collaborations.

Gaussian Processes (GPs) provide a powerful framework for making predictions and understanding uncertainty for classification with kernels and Bayesian non-parametric learning. Building such models typically requires strong prior knowledge to define preselect kernels, which could be ineffective for online applications of classification that sequentially process data because features of data may shift during the process. To alleviate the requirement of prior knowledge used in GPs and learn new features from data that arrive successively, this paper presents a novel method to automatically discover models of classification on complex data with little prior knowledge. Our method adapts a recently proposed technique for GP-based time-series structure discovery, which integrates GPs and Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC). We extend the technique to handle extra latent variables in GP classification, such that our method can effectively and adaptively learn a-priori unknown structures of classification from continuous input. In addition, our method adapts new batch of data with updated structures of models. Our experiments show that our method is able to automatically incorporate various features of kernels on synthesized data and real-world data for classification. In the experiments of real-world data, our method outperforms various classification methods on both online and offline setting achieving a 10\% accuracy improvement on one benchmark.

The Sleeping Beauty problem is a puzzle in probability theory that has gained much attention since Elga's discussion of it [Elga, Adam, Analysis 60 (2), p.143-147 (2000)]. Sleeping Beauty is put asleep, and a coin is tossed. If the outcome of the coin toss is Tails, Sleeping Beauty is woken up on Monday, put asleep again and woken up again on Tuesday (with no recollection of having woken up on Monday). If the outcome is Heads, Sleeping Beauty is woken up on Monday only. Each time Sleeping Beauty is woken up, she is asked what her belief is that the outcome was Heads. What should Sleeping Beauty reply? In literature arguments have been given for both 1/3 and 1/2 as the correct answer. In this short note we argue using simple Bayesian probability theory why 1/3 is the right answer, and not 1/2. Briefly, when Sleeping Beauty awakens, her being awake is nontrivial extra information that leads her to update her beliefs about Heads to 1/3. We strengthen our claim by considering an additional observer, Prince Probability, who may or may not meet Sleeping Beauty. If he meets Sleeping Beauty while she is awake, he lowers his credence in Heads to 1/3. We also briefly consider the credence in Heads of a Sleeping Beauty who knows that she is dreaming (and thus asleep).