Localization using time-difference of arrival (TDOA) has myriad applications, e.g., in passive surveillance systems and marine mammal research. In this paper, we present a Bayesian estimation method that can localize an unknown number of static sources in 3-D based on TDOA measurements. The proposed localization algorithm based on particle flow (PFL) can overcome the challenges related to the highly nonlinear TDOA measurement model, the data association (DA) uncertainty, and the uncertainty in the number of sources to be localized. Different PFL strategies are compared within a unified belief propagation (BP) framework in a challenging multisensor source localization problem. In particular, we consider PFL-based approximation of beliefs based on one or multiple Gaussian kernels with parameters computed using deterministic and stochastic flow processes. Our numerical results demonstrate that the proposed method can correctly determine the number of sources and provide accurate location estimates. The stochastic flow demonstrates greater accuracy compared to the deterministic flow when using the same number of particles.

A natural strategy for continual learning is to weigh a Bayesian ensemble of fixed functions. This suggests that if a (single) neural network could be interpreted as an ensemble, one could design effective algorithms that learn without forgetting. To realize this possibility, we observe that a neural network classifier with N parameters can be interpreted as a weighted ensemble of N classifiers, and that in the lazy regime limit these classifiers are fixed throughout learning. We term these classifiers the neural tangent experts and show they output valid probability distributions over the labels. We then derive the likelihood and posterior probability of each expert given past data. Surprisingly, we learn that the posterior updates for these experts are equivalent to a scaled and projected form of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) over the network weights. Away from the lazy regime, networks can be seen as ensembles of adaptive experts which improve over time. These results offer a new interpretation of neural networks as Bayesian ensembles of experts, providing a principled framework for understanding and mitigating catastrophic forgetting in continual learning settings.

The dominant practice of AI alignment assumes (1) that preferences are an adequate representation of human values, (2) that human rationality can be understood in terms of maximizing the satisfaction of preferences, and (3) that AI systems should be aligned with the preferences of one or more humans to ensure that they behave safely and in accordance with our values. Whether implicitly followed or explicitly endorsed, these commitments constitute what we term a preferentist approach to AI alignment. In this paper, we characterize and challenge the preferentist approach, describing conceptual and technical alternatives that are ripe for further research. We first survey the limits of rational choice theory as a descriptive model, explaining how preferences fail to capture the thick semantic content of human values, and how utility representations neglect the possible incommensurability of those values. We then critique the normativity of expected utility theory (EUT) for humans and AI, drawing upon arguments showing how rational agents need not comply with EUT, while highlighting how EUT is silent on which preferences are normatively acceptable. Finally, we argue that these limitations motivate a reframing of the targets of AI alignment: Instead of alignment with the preferences of a human user, developer, or humanity-writ-large, AI systems should be aligned with normative standards appropriate to their social roles, such as the role of a general-purpose assistant. Furthermore, these standards should be negotiated and agreed upon by all relevant stakeholders. On this alternative conception of alignment, a multiplicity of AI systems will be able to serve diverse ends, aligned with normative standards that promote mutual benefit and limit harm despite our plural and divergent values.

Balancing computational efficiency with robust predictive performance is crucial in supervised learning, especially for critical applications. Standard deep learning models, while accurate and scalable, often lack probabilistic features like calibrated predictions and uncertainty quantification. Bayesian methods address these issues but can be computationally expensive as model and data complexity increase. Previous work shows that fast variational methods can reduce the compute requirements of Bayesian methods by eliminating the need for gradient computation or sampling, but are often limited to simple models. We demonstrate that conditional mixture networks (CMNs), a probabilistic variant of the mixture-of-experts (MoE) model, are suitable for fast, gradient-free inference and can solve complex classification tasks. CMNs employ linear experts and a softmax gating network. By exploiting conditional conjugacy and P\'olya-Gamma augmentation, we furnish Gaussian likelihoods for the weights of both the linear experts and the gating network. This enables efficient variational updates using coordinate ascent variational inference (CAVI), avoiding traditional gradient-based optimization. We validate this approach by training two-layer CMNs on standard benchmarks from the UCI repository. Our method, CAVI-CMN, achieves competitive and often superior predictive accuracy compared to maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) with backpropagation, while maintaining competitive runtime and full posterior distributions over all model parameters. Moreover, as input size or the number of experts increases, computation time scales competitively with MLE and other gradient-based solutions like black-box variational inference (BBVI), making CAVI-CMN a promising tool for deep, fast, and gradient-free Bayesian networks.

Time-varying linear state-space models are powerful tools for obtaining mathematically interpretable representations of neural signals. For example, switching and decomposed models describe complex systems using latent variables that evolve according to simple locally linear dynamics. However, existing methods for latent variable estimation are not robust to dynamical noise and system nonlinearity due to noise-sensitive inference procedures and limited model formulations. This can lead to inconsistent results on signals with similar dynamics, limiting the model's ability to provide scientific insight. In this work, we address these limitations and propose a probabilistic approach to latent variable estimation in decomposed models that improves robustness against dynamical noise. Additionally, we introduce an extended latent dynamics model to improve robustness against system nonlinearities. We evaluate our approach on several synthetic dynamical systems, including an empirically-derived brain-computer interface experiment, and demonstrate more accurate latent variable inference in nonlinear systems with diverse noise conditions. Furthermore, we apply our method to a real-world clinical neurophysiology dataset, illustrating the ability to identify interpretable and coherent structure where previous models cannot.

Variational continual learning (VCL) is a turn-key learning algorithm that has state-of-the-art performance among the best continual learning models. In our work, we explore an extension of the generalized variational continual learning (GVCL) model, named AutoVCL, which combines task heuristics for informed learning and model optimization. We demonstrate that our model outperforms the standard GVCL with fixed hyperparameters, benefiting from the automatic adjustment of the hyperparameter based on the difficulty and similarity of the incoming task compared to the previous tasks.

Learning a transition model via Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) followed by planning inside the learned model is perhaps the most standard and simplest Model-based Reinforcement Learning (RL) framework. In this work, we show that such a simple Model-based RL scheme, when equipped with optimistic and pessimistic planning procedures, achieves strong regret and sample complexity bounds in online and offline RL settings. Particularly, we demonstrate that under the conditions where the trajectory-wise reward is normalized between zero and one and the transition is time-homogenous, it achieves horizon-free and second-order bounds. Horizon-free means that our bounds have no polynomial dependence on the horizon of the Markov Decision Process. A second-order bound is a type of instance-dependent bound that scales with respect to the variances of the returns of the policies which can be small when the system is nearly deterministic and (or) the optimal policy has small values. We highlight that our algorithms are simple, fairly standard, and indeed have been extensively studied in the RL literature: they learn a model via MLE, build a version space around the MLE solution, and perform optimistic or pessimistic planning depending on whether operating in the online or offline mode. These algorithms do not rely on additional specialized algorithmic designs such as learning variances and performing variance-weighted learning and thus can leverage rich function approximations that are significantly beyond linear or tabular structures. The simplicity of the algorithms also implies that our horizon-free and second-order regret analysis is actually standard and mainly follows the general framework of optimism/pessimism in the face of uncertainty.

Neural Networks (NNs) are promising models for refining the accuracy of molecular dynamics, potentially opening up new fields of application. Typically trained bottom-up, atomistic NN potential models can reach first-principle accuracy, while coarse-grained implicit solvent NN potentials surpass classical continuum solvent models. However, overcoming the limitations of costly generation of accurate reference data and data inefficiency of common bottom-up training demands efficient incorporation of data from many sources. This paper introduces the framework chemtrain to learn sophisticated NN potential models through customizable training routines and advanced training algorithms. These routines can combine multiple top-down and bottom-up algorithms, e.g., to incorporate both experimental and simulation data or pre-train potentials with less costly algorithms. chemtrain provides an object-oriented high-level interface to simplify the creation of custom routines. On the lower level, chemtrain relies on JAX to compute gradients and scale the computations to use available resources. We demonstrate the simplicity and importance of combining multiple algorithms in the examples of parametrizing an all-atomistic model of titanium and a coarse-grained implicit solvent model of alanine dipeptide.

Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets) are a class of generative models that sample objects in proportion to a specified reward function through a learned policy. They can be trained either on-policy or off-policy, needing a balance between exploration and exploitation for fast convergence to a target distribution. While exploration strategies for discrete GFlowNets have been studied, exploration in the continuous case remains to be investigated, despite the potential for novel exploration algorithms due to the local connectedness of continuous domains. Here, we introduce Adapted Metadynamics, a variant of metadynamics that can be applied to arbitrary black-box reward functions on continuous domains. We use Adapted Metadynamics as an exploration strategy for continuous GFlowNets. We show three continuous domains where the resulting algorithm, MetaGFN, accelerates convergence to the target distribution and discovers more distant reward modes than previous off-policy exploration strategies used for GFlowNets.

The optimization of atomic structures plays a pivotal role in understanding and designing materials with desired properties. However, conventional methods often struggle with the formidable task of navigating the vast potential energy surface, especially in high-dimensional spaces with numerous local minima. Recent advancements in machine learning-driven surrogate models offer a promising avenue for alleviating this computational burden. In this study, we propose a novel approach that combines the strengths of universal machine learning potentials with a Bayesian approach of the GOFEE/BEACON framework. By leveraging the comprehensive chemical knowledge encoded in pretrained universal machine learning potentials as a prior estimate of energy and forces, we enable the Gaussian process to focus solely on capturing the intricate nuances of the potential energy surface. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach through comparative analyses across diverse systems, including periodic bulk materials, surface structures, and a cluster.