Bayesian Inference
Exploring Action-Centric Representations Through the Lens of Rate-Distortion Theory
Varona, Miguel de Llanza, Buckley, Christopher L., Millidge, Beren
Organisms have to keep track of the information in the environment that is relevant for adaptive behaviour. Transmitting information in an economical and efficient way becomes crucial for limited-resourced agents living in high-dimensional environments. The efficient coding hypothesis claims that organisms seek to maximize the information about the sensory input in an efficient manner. Under Bayesian inference, this means that the role of the brain is to efficiently allocate resources in order to make predictions about the hidden states that cause sensory data. However, neither of those frameworks accounts for how that information is exploited downstream, leaving aside the action-oriented role of the perceptual system. Rate-distortion theory, which defines optimal lossy compression under constraints, has gained attention as a formal framework to explore goal-oriented efficient coding. In this work, we explore action-centric representations in the context of rate-distortion theory. We also provide a mathematical definition of abstractions and we argue that, as a summary of the relevant details, they can be used to fix the content of action-centric representations. We model action-centric representations using VAEs and we find that such representations i) are efficient lossy compressions of the data; ii) capture the task-dependent invariances necessary to achieve successful behaviour; and iii) are not in service of reconstructing the data. Thus, we conclude that full reconstruction of the data is rarely needed to achieve optimal behaviour, consistent with a teleological approach to perception.
SynSUM -- Synthetic Benchmark with Structured and Unstructured Medical Records
Rabaey, Paloma, Arno, Henri, Heytens, Stefan, Demeester, Thomas
We present the SynSUM benchmark, a synthetic dataset linking unstructured clinical notes to structured background variables. The dataset consists of 10,000 artificial patient records containing tabular variables (like symptoms, diagnoses and underlying conditions) and related notes describing the fictional patient encounter in the domain of respiratory diseases. The tabular portion of the data is generated through a Bayesian network, where both the causal structure between the variables and the conditional probabilities are proposed by an expert based on domain knowledge. We then prompt a large language model (GPT-4o) to generate a clinical note related to this patient encounter, describing the patient symptoms and additional context. The SynSUM dataset is primarily designed to facilitate research on clinical information extraction in the presence of tabular background variables, which can be linked through domain knowledge to concepts of interest to be extracted from the text - the symptoms, in the case of SynSUM. Secondary uses include research on the automation of clinical reasoning over both tabular data and text, causal effect estimation in the presence of tabular and/or textual confounders, and multi-modal synthetic data generation. The dataset can be downloaded from https://github.com/prabaey/SynSUM.
Localized Schr\"odinger Bridge Sampler
Gottwald, Georg A., Reich, Sebastian
We consider the generative problem of sampling from an unknown distribution for which only a sufficiently large number of training samples are available. In this paper, we build on previous work combining Schrödinger bridges and Langevin dynamics. A key bottleneck of this approach is the exponential dependence of the required training samples on the dimension, d, of the ambient state space. We propose a localization strategy which exploits conditional independence of conditional expectation values. Localization thus replaces a single high-dimensional Schrödinger bridge problem by d low-dimensional Schrödinger bridge problems over the available training samples. As for the original approach, the localized sampler is stable and geometric ergodic. The sampler also naturally extends to conditional sampling and to Bayesian inference. We demonstrate the performance of our proposed scheme through experiments on a Gaussian problem with increasing dimensions and on a stochastic subgrid-scale parametrization conditional sampling problem. Keywords: generative modeling, Langevin dynamics, Schrödinger bridges, conditional independence, localization, Bayesian inference, conditional sampling, multi-scale closure AMS: 60H10,62F15,62F30,65C05,65C40 1. Introduction In this paper, we consider the problem of sampling from an unknown probability measure ν(dx) on R
What is the Relationship between Tensor Factorizations and Circuits (and How Can We Exploit it)?
Loconte, Lorenzo, Mari, Antonio, Gala, Gennaro, Peharz, Robert, de Campos, Cassio, Quaeghebeur, Erik, Vessio, Gennaro, Vergari, Antonio
This paper establishes a rigorous connection between circuit representations and tensor factorizations, two seemingly distinct yet fundamentally related areas. By connecting these fields, we highlight a series of opportunities that can benefit both communities. Our work generalizes popular tensor factorizations within the circuit language, and unifies various circuit learning algorithms under a single, generalized hierarchical factorization framework. Specifically, we introduce a modular "Lego block" approach to build tensorized circuit architectures. This, in turn, allows us to systematically construct and explore various circuit and tensor factorization models while maintaining tractability. This connection not only clarifies similarities and differences in existing models, but also enables the development of a comprehensive pipeline for building and optimizing new circuit/tensor factorization architectures. We show the effectiveness of our framework through extensive empirical evaluations, and highlight new research opportunities for tensor factorizations in probabilistic modeling.
Foundation of Calculating Normalized Maximum Likelihood for Continuous Probability Models
Suzuki, Atsushi, Fukuzawa, Kota, Yamanishi, Kenji
The normalized maximum likelihood (NML) code length is widely used as a model selection criterion based on the minimum description length principle, where the model with the shortest NML code length is selected. A common method to calculate the NML code length is to use the sum (for a discrete model) or integral (for a continuous model) of a function defined by the distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator. While this method has been proven to correctly calculate the NML code length of discrete models, no proof has been provided for continuous cases. Consequently, it has remained unclear whether the method can accurately calculate the NML code length of continuous models. In this paper, we solve this problem affirmatively, proving that the method is also correct for continuous cases. Remarkably, completing the proof for continuous cases is non-trivial in that it cannot be achieved by merely replacing the sums in discrete cases with integrals, as the decomposition trick applied to sums in the discrete model case proof is not applicable to integrals in the continuous model case proof. To overcome this, we introduce a novel decomposition approach based on the coarea formula from geometric measure theory, which is essential to establishing our proof for continuous cases.
Optimizing Falsification for Learning-Based Control Systems: A Multi-Fidelity Bayesian Approach
Shahrooei, Zahra, Kochenderfer, Mykel J., Baheri, Ali
Testing controllers in safety-critical systems is vital for ensuring their safety and preventing failures. In this paper, we address the falsification problem within learning-based closed-loop control systems through simulation. This problem involves the identification of counterexamples that violate system safety requirements and can be formulated as an optimization task based on these requirements. Using full-fidelity simulator data in this optimization problem can be computationally expensive. To improve efficiency, we propose a multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization falsification framework that harnesses simulators with varying levels of accuracy. Our proposed framework can transition between different simulators and establish meaningful relationships between them. Through multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization, we determine both the optimal system input likely to be a counterexample and the appropriate fidelity level for assessment. We evaluated our approach across various Gym environments, each featuring different levels of fidelity. Our experiments demonstrate that multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization is more computationally efficient than full-fidelity Bayesian optimization and other baseline methods in detecting counterexamples. A Python implementation of the algorithm is available at https://github.com/SAILRIT/MFBO_Falsification.
NGD converges to less degenerate solutions than SGD
Saghir, Moosa, Raghavendra, N. R., Liu, Zihe, Gunter, Evan Ryan
The number of free parameters, or dimension, of a model is a straightforward way to measure its complexity: a model with more parameters can encode more information. However, this is not an accurate measure of complexity: models capable of memorizing their training data often generalize well despite their high dimension. Effective dimension aims to more directly capture the complexity of a model by counting only the number of parameters required to represent the functionality of the model. Singular learning theory (SLT) proposes the learning coefficient $ \lambda $ as a more accurate measure of effective dimension. By describing the rate of increase of the volume of the region of parameter space around a local minimum with respect to loss, $ \lambda $ incorporates information from higher-order terms. We compare $ \lambda $ of models trained using natural gradient descent (NGD) and stochastic gradient descent (SGD), and find that those trained with NGD consistently have a higher effective dimension for both of our methods: the Hessian trace $ \text{Tr}(\mathbf{H}) $, and the estimate of the local learning coefficient (LLC) $ \hat{\lambda}(w^*) $.
Detection of Electric Motor Damage Through Analysis of Sound Signals Using Bayesian Neural Networks
Bauer, Waldemar, Zagorowska, Marta, Baranowski, Jerzy
Fault monitoring and diagnostics are important to ensure reliability of electric motors. Efficient algorithms for fault detection improve reliability, yet development of cost-effective and reliable classifiers for diagnostics of equipment is challenging, in particular due to unavailability of well-balanced datasets, with signals from properly functioning equipment and those from faulty equipment. Thus, we propose to use a Bayesian neural network to detect and classify faults in electric motors, given its efficacy with imbalanced training data. The performance of the proposed network is demonstrated on real life signals, and a robustness analysis of the proposed solution is provided.
Graph Laplacian-based Bayesian Multi-fidelity Modeling
Pinti, Orazio, Budd, Jeremy M., Hoffmann, Franca, Oberai, Assad A.
We present a novel probabilistic approach for generating multi-fidelity data while accounting for errors inherent in both low- and high-fidelity data. In this approach a graph Laplacian constructed from the low-fidelity data is used to define a multivariate Gaussian prior density for the coordinates of the true data points. In addition, few high-fidelity data points are used to construct a conjugate likelihood term. Thereafter, Bayes rule is applied to derive an explicit expression for the posterior density which is also multivariate Gaussian. The maximum \textit{a posteriori} (MAP) estimate of this density is selected to be the optimal multi-fidelity estimate. It is shown that the MAP estimate and the covariance of the posterior density can be determined through the solution of linear systems of equations. Thereafter, two methods, one based on spectral truncation and another based on a low-rank approximation, are developed to solve these equations efficiently. The multi-fidelity approach is tested on a variety of problems in solid and fluid mechanics with data that represents vectors of quantities of interest and discretized spatial fields in one and two dimensions. The results demonstrate that by utilizing a small fraction of high-fidelity data, the multi-fidelity approach can significantly improve the accuracy of a large collection of low-fidelity data points.
Rapid Parameter Estimation for Extreme Mass Ratio Inspirals Using Machine Learning
Liang, Bo, Guo, Hong, Zhao, Tianyu, wang, He, Evangelinelis, Herik, Xu, Yuxiang, liu, Chang, Liang, Manjia, Wei, Xiaotong, Yuan, Yong, Xu, Peng, Du, Minghui, Qian, Wei-Liang, Luo, Ziren
Extreme-mass-ratio inspiral (EMRI) signals pose significant challenges in gravitational wave (GW) astronomy owing to their low-frequency nature and highly complex waveforms, which occupy a high-dimensional parameter space with numerous variables. Given their extended inspiral timescales and low signal-to-noise ratios, EMRI signals warrant prolonged observation periods. Parameter estimation becomes particularly challenging due to non-local parameter degeneracies, arising from multiple local maxima, as well as flat regions and ridges inherent in the likelihood function. These factors lead to exceptionally high time complexity for parameter analysis while employing traditional matched filtering and random sampling methods. To address these challenges, the present study applies machine learning to Bayesian posterior estimation of EMRI signals, leveraging the recently developed flow matching technique based on ODE neural networks. Our approach demonstrates computational efficiency several orders of magnitude faster than the traditional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, while preserving the unbiasedness of parameter estimation. We show that machine learning technology has the potential to efficiently handle the vast parameter space, involving up to seventeen parameters, associated with EMRI signals. Furthermore, to our knowledge, this is the first instance of applying machine learning, specifically the Continuous Normalizing Flows (CNFs), to EMRI signal analysis. Our findings highlight the promising potential of machine learning in EMRI waveform analysis, offering new perspectives for the advancement of space-based GW detection and GW astronomy.