We introduce new high-resolution galaxy simulations accelerated by a surrogate model that reduces the computation cost by approximately 75 percent. Massive stars with a Zero Age Main Sequence mass of about 8 solar masses and above explode as core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe), which play a critical role in galaxy formation. The energy released by CCSNe is essential for regulating star formation and driving feedback processes in the interstellar medium (ISM). However, the short integration timesteps required for SNe feedback present significant bottlenecks in star-by-star galaxy simulations that aim to capture individual stellar dynamics and the inhomogeneous shell expansion of SNe within the turbulent ISM. Our new framework combines direct numerical simulations and surrogate modeling, including machine learning and Gibbs sampling. The star formation history and the time evolution of outflow rates in the galaxy match those obtained from resolved direct numerical simulations. Our new approach achieves high-resolution fidelity while reducing computational costs, effectively bridging the physical scale gap and enabling multi-scale simulations.

Diverse computing paradigms have emerged to meet the growing needs for intelligent energy-efficient systems. The Margin Propagation (MP) framework, being one such initiative in the analog computing domain, stands out due to its scalability across biasing conditions, temperatures, and diminishing process technology nodes. However, the lack of digital-like automation tools for designing analog systems (including that of MP analog) hinders their adoption for designing large systems. The inherent scalability and modularity of MP systems present a unique opportunity in this regard. This paper introduces KALAM (toolKit for Automating high-Level synthesis of Analog computing systeMs), which leverages factor graphs as the foundational paradigm for synthesizing MP-based analog computing systems. Factor graphs are the basis of various signal processing tasks and, when coupled with MP, can be used to design scalable and energy-efficient analog signal processors. Using Python scripting language, the KALAM automation flow translates an input factor graph to its equivalent SPICE-compatible circuit netlist that can be used to validate the intended functionality. KALAM also allows the integration of design optimization strategies such as precision tuning, variable elimination, and mathematical simplification. We demonstrate KALAM's versatility for tasks such as Bayesian inference, Low-Density Parity Check (LDPC) decoding, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Simulation results of the netlists align closely with software implementations, affirming the efficacy of our proposed automation tool.

What does it mean to say that, for example, the probability for rain tomorrow is between 20% and 30%? The theory for the evaluation of precise probabilistic forecasts is well-developed and is grounded in the key concepts of proper scoring rules and calibration. For the case of imprecise probabilistic forecasts (sets of probabilities), such theory is still lacking. In this work, we therefore generalize proper scoring rules and calibration to the imprecise case. We develop these concepts as relative to data models and decision problems. As a consequence, the imprecision is embedded in a clear context. We establish a close link to the paradigm of (group) distributional robustness and in doing so provide new insights for it. We argue that proper scoring rules and calibration serve two distinct goals, which are aligned in the precise case, but intriguingly are not necessarily aligned in the imprecise case. The concept of decision-theoretic entropy plays a key role for both goals. Finally, we demonstrate the theoretical insights in machine learning practice, in particular we illustrate subtle pitfalls relating to the choice of loss function in distributional robustness.

Sequential learning in deep models often suffers from challenges such as catastrophic forgetting and loss of plasticity, largely due to the permutation dependence of gradient-based algorithms, where the order of training data impacts the learning outcome. In this work, we introduce a novel permutation-invariant learning framework based on high-dimensional particle filters. We theoretically demonstrate that particle filters are invariant to the sequential ordering of training minibatches or tasks, offering a principled solution to mitigate catastrophic forgetting and loss-of-plasticity. We develop an efficient particle filter for optimizing high-dimensional models, combining the strengths of Bayesian methods with gradient-based optimization. Through extensive experiments on continual supervised and reinforcement learning benchmarks, including SplitMNIST, SplitCIFAR100, and ProcGen, we empirically show that our method consistently improves performance, while reducing variance compared to standard baselines.

Mobile health (mHealth) programs face a critical challenge in optimizing the timing of automated health information calls to beneficiaries. This challenge has been formulated as a collaborative multi-armed bandit problem, requiring online learning of a low-rank reward matrix. Existing solutions often rely on heuristic combinations of offline matrix completion and exploration strategies. In this work, we propose a principled Bayesian approach using Thompson Sampling for this collaborative bandit problem. Our method leverages prior information through efficient Gibbs sampling for posterior inference over the low-rank matrix factors, enabling faster convergence. We demonstrate significant improvements over state-of-the-art baselines on a real-world dataset from the world's largest maternal mHealth program. Our approach achieves a $16\%$ reduction in the number of calls compared to existing methods and a $47$\% reduction compared to the deployed random policy. This efficiency gain translates to a potential increase in program capacity by $0.5-1.4$ million beneficiaries, granting them access to vital ante-natal and post-natal care information. Furthermore, we observe a $7\%$ and $29\%$ improvement in beneficiary retention (an extremely hard metric to impact) compared to state-of-the-art and deployed baselines, respectively. Synthetic simulations further demonstrate the superiority of our approach, particularly in low-data regimes and in effectively utilizing prior information. We also provide a theoretical analysis of our algorithm in a special setting using Eluder dimension.

Disease progression models infer group-level temporal trajectories of change in patients' features as a chronic degenerative condition plays out. They provide unique insight into disease biology and staging systems with individual-level clinical utility. Discrete models consider disease progression as a latent permutation of events, where each event corresponds to a feature becoming measurably abnormal. However, permutation inference using traditional maximum likelihood approaches becomes prohibitive due to combinatoric explosion, severely limiting model dimensionality and utility. Here we leverage ideas from optimal transport to model disease progression as a latent permutation matrix of events belonging to the Birkhoff polytope, facilitating fast inference via optimisation of the variational lower bound. This enables a factor of 1000 times faster inference than the current state of the art and, correspondingly, supports models with several orders of magnitude more features than the current state of the art can consider. Experiments demonstrate the increase in speed, accuracy and robustness to noise in simulation. Further experiments with real-world imaging data from two separate datasets, one from Alzheimer's disease patients, the other age-related macular degeneration, showcase, for the first time, pixel-level disease progression events in the brain and eye, respectively. Our method is low compute, interpretable and applicable to any progressive condition and data modality, giving it broad potential clinical utility.

Data increasingly take the form of a multi-way array, or tensor, in several biomedical domains. Such tensors are often incompletely observed. For example, we are motivated by longitudinal microbiome studies in which several timepoints are missing for several subjects. There is a growing literature on missing data imputation for tensors. However, existing methods give a point estimate for missing values without capturing uncertainty. We propose a multiple imputation approach for tensors in a flexible Bayesian framework, that yields realistic simulated values for missing entries and can propagate uncertainty through subsequent analyses. Our model uses efficient and widely applicable conjugate priors for a CANDECOMP/PARAFAC (CP) factorization, with a separable residual covariance structure. This approach is shown to perform well with respect to both imputation accuracy and uncertainty calibration, for scenarios in which either single entries or entire fibers of the tensor are missing. For two microbiome applications, it is shown to accurately capture uncertainty in the full microbiome profile at missing timepoints and used to infer trends in species diversity for the population. Documented R code to perform our multiple imputation approach is available at https://github.com/lockEF/MultiwayImputation .

Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) [Liu and Wang, 2016] performs approximate Bayesian inference by representing the posterior with a set of particles. However, SVGD suffers from variance collapse, i.e. poor predictions due to underestimating uncertainty [Ba et al., 2021], even for moderately-dimensional models such as small Bayesian neural networks (BNNs). To address this issue, we generalize SVGD by letting each particle parameterize a component distribution in a mixture model. Our method, Stein Mixture Inference (SMI), optimizes a lower bound to the evidence (ELBO) and introduces user-specified guides parameterized by particles. SMI extends the Nonlinear SVGD framework [Wang and Liu, 2019] to the case of variational Bayes. SMI effectively avoids variance collapse, judging by a previously described test developed for this purpose, and performs well on standard data sets. In addition, SMI requires considerably fewer particles than SVGD to accurately estimate uncertainty for small BNNs. The synergistic combination of NSVGD, ELBO optimization and user-specified guides establishes a promising approach towards variational Bayesian inference in the case of tall and wide data.

Hyperparameters are configuration variables controlling the behavior of machine learning algorithms. They are ubiquitous in machine learning and artificial intelligence and the choice of their values determine the effectiveness of systems based on these technologies. Manual hyperparameter search is often unsatisfactory and becomes unfeasible when the number of hyperparameters is large. Automating the search is an important step towards automating machine learning, freeing researchers and practitioners alike from the burden of finding a good set of hyperparameters by trial and error. In this survey, we present a unified treatment of hyperparameter optimization, providing the reader with examples and insights into the state-of-the-art. We cover the main families of techniques to automate hyperparameter search, often referred to as hyperparameter optimization or tuning, including random and quasi-random search, bandit-, model- and gradient- based approaches. We further discuss extensions, including online, constrained, and multi-objective formulations, touch upon connections with other fields such as meta-learning and neural architecture search, and conclude with open questions and future research directions.

Kernel embeddings have emerged as a powerful tool for representing probability measures in a variety of statistical inference problems. By mapping probability measures into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), kernel embeddings enable flexible representations of complex relationships between variables. They serve as a mechanism for efficiently transferring the representation of a distribution downstream to other tasks, such as hypothesis testing or causal effect estimation. In the context of causal inference, the main challenges include identifying causal associations and estimating the average treatment effect from observational data, where confounding variables may obscure direct cause-and-effect relationships. Kernel embeddings provide a robust nonparametric framework for addressing these challenges. They allow for the representations of distributions of observational data and their seamless transformation into representations of interventional distributions to estimate relevant causal quantities.