Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) show the potential of using LLMs as evaluators for assessing the quality of text generations from LLMs. However, applying LLM evaluators naively to compare or judge between different systems can lead to unreliable results due to the intrinsic win rate estimation bias of LLM evaluators. In order to mitigate this problem, we propose two calibration methods, Bayesian Win Rate Sampling (BWRS) and Bayesian Dawid-Skene, both of which leverage Bayesian inference to more accurately infer the true win rate of generative language models. We empirically validate our methods on six datasets covering story generation, summarization, and instruction following tasks. We show that both our methods are effective in improving the accuracy of win rate estimation using LLMs as evaluators, offering a promising direction for reliable automatic text quality evaluation.

Neural networks are traditionally trained under the assumption that data come from a stationary distribution. However, settings which violate this assumption are becoming more popular; examples include supervised learning under distributional shifts, reinforcement learning, continual learning and non-stationary contextual bandits. In this work we introduce a novel learning approach that automatically models and adapts to non-stationarity, via an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with an adaptive drift parameter. The adaptive drift tends to draw the parameters towards the initialisation distribution, so the approach can be understood as a form of soft parameter reset. We show empirically that our approach performs well in non-stationary supervised and off-policy reinforcement learning settings.

Asynchronous event sequence clustering aims to group similar event sequences in an unsupervised manner. Mixture models of temporal point processes have been proposed to solve this problem, but they often suffer from overfitting, leading to excessive cluster generation with a lack of diversity. To overcome these limitations, we propose a Bayesian mixture model of Temporal Point Processes with Determinantal Point Process prior (TP$^2$DP$^2$) and accordingly an efficient posterior inference algorithm based on conditional Gibbs sampling. Our work provides a flexible learning framework for event sequence clustering, enabling automatic identification of the potential number of clusters and accurate grouping of sequences with similar features. It is applicable to a wide range of parametric temporal point processes, including neural network-based models. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world data suggest that our framework could produce moderately fewer yet more diverse mixture components, and achieve outstanding results across multiple evaluation metrics.

Human mobility modeling from GPS-trajectories and synthetic trajectory generation are crucial for various applications, such as urban planning, disaster management and epidemiology. Both of these tasks often require filling gaps in a partially specified sequence of visits - a new problem that we call "controlled" synthetic trajectory generation. Existing methods for next-location prediction or synthetic trajectory generation cannot solve this problem as they lack the mechanisms needed to constrain the generated sequences of visits. Moreover, existing approaches (1) frequently treat space and time as independent factors, an assumption that fails to hold true in real-world scenarios, and (2) suffer from challenges in accuracy of temporal prediction as they fail to deal with mixed distributions and the inter-relationships of different modes with latent variables (e.g., day-of-the-week). These limitations become even more pronounced when the task involves filling gaps within sequences instead of solely predicting the next visit. We introduce TrajGPT, a transformer-based, multi-task, joint spatiotemporal generative model to address these issues. Taking inspiration from large language models, TrajGPT poses the problem of controlled trajectory generation as that of text infilling in natural language. TrajGPT integrates the spatial and temporal models in a transformer architecture through a Bayesian probability model that ensures that the gaps in a visit sequence are filled in a spatiotemporally consistent manner. Our experiments on public and private datasets demonstrate that TrajGPT not only excels in controlled synthetic visit generation but also outperforms competing models in next-location prediction tasks - Relatively, TrajGPT achieves a 26-fold improvement in temporal accuracy while retaining more than 98% of spatial accuracy on average.

This study explores a Bayesian algorithmic approach to personalized fragrance recommendation by integrating hierarchical Relevance Vector Machines (RVM) and Jungian personality archetypes. The paper proposes a structured model that links individual scent preferences for top, middle, and base notes to personality traits derived from Jungian archetypes, such as the Hero, Caregiver, and Explorer, among others. The algorithm utilizes Bayesian updating to dynamically refine predictions as users interact with each fragrance note. This iterative process allows for the personalization of fragrance experiences based on prior data and personality assessments, leading to adaptive and interpretable recommendations. By combining psychological theory with Bayesian machine learning, this approach addresses the complexity of modeling individual preferences while capturing user-specific and population-level trends. The study highlights the potential of hierarchical Bayesian frameworks in creating customized olfactory experiences, informed by psychological and demographic factors, contributing to advancements in personalized product design and machine learning applications in sensory-based industries.

Data point selection (DPS) is becoming a critical topic in deep learning due to the ease of acquiring uncurated training data compared to the difficulty of obtaining curated or processed data. Existing approaches to DPS are predominantly based on a bi-level optimisation (BLO) formulation, which is demanding in terms of memory and computation, and exhibits some theoretical defects regarding minibatches. Thus, we propose a novel Bayesian approach to DPS. We view the DPS problem as posterior inference in a novel Bayesian model where the posterior distributions of the instance-wise weights and the main neural network parameters are inferred under a reasonable prior and likelihood model. We employ stochastic gradient Langevin MCMC sampling to learn the main network and instance-wise weights jointly, ensuring convergence even with minibatches. Our update equation is comparable to the widely used SGD and much more efficient than existing BLO-based methods. Through controlled experiments in both the vision and language domains, we present the proof-of-concept. Additionally, we demonstrate that our method scales effectively to large language models and facilitates automated per-task optimization for instruction fine-tuning datasets.

What if the main data protection vulnerability is risk management? Data Protection merges three disciplines: data protection law, information security, and risk management. Nonetheless, very little research has been made on the field of data protection risk management, where subjectivity and superficiality are the dominant state of the art. Since the GDPR tells you what to do, but not how to do it, the solution for approaching GDPR compliance is still a gray zone, where the trend is using the rule of thumb. Considering that the most important goal of risk management is to reduce uncertainty in order to take informed decisions, risk management for the protection of the rights and freedoms of the data subjects cannot be disconnected from the impact materialization that data controllers and processors need to assess. This paper proposes a quantitative approach to data protection risk-based compliance from a data controllers perspective, with the aim of proposing a mindset change, where data protection impact assessments can be improved by using data protection analytics, quantitative risk analysis, and calibrating expert opinions.

In this paper, we propose a novel model called Recurrent Explicit Duration Switching Linear Dynamical Systems (REDSLDS) that incorporates recurrent explicit duration variables into the rSLDS model. We also propose an inference and learning scheme that involves the use of P\'olya-gamma augmentation. We demonstrate the improved segmentation capabilities of our model on three benchmark datasets, including two quantitative datasets and one qualitative dataset.

While synthetic data hold great promise for privacy protection, their statistical analysis poses significant challenges that necessitate innovative solutions. The use of deep generative models (DGMs) for synthetic data generation is known to induce considerable bias and imprecision into synthetic data analyses, compromising their inferential utility as opposed to original data analyses. This bias and uncertainty can be substantial enough to impede statistical convergence rates, even in seemingly straightforward analyses like mean calculation. The standard errors of such estimators then exhibit slower shrinkage with sample size than the typical 1 over root-$n$ rate. This complicates fundamental calculations like p-values and confidence intervals, with no straightforward remedy currently available. In response to these challenges, we propose a new strategy that targets synthetic data created by DGMs for specific data analyses. Drawing insights from debiased and targeted machine learning, our approach accounts for biases, enhances convergence rates, and facilitates the calculation of estimators with easily approximated large sample variances. We exemplify our proposal through a simulation study on toy data and two case studies on real-world data, highlighting the importance of tailoring DGMs for targeted data analysis. This debiasing strategy contributes to advancing the reliability and applicability of synthetic data in statistical inference.

Generalization outside the scope of one's training data requires leveraging prior knowledge about the effects that transfer, and the effects that don't, between different data sources. Bayesian transfer learning is a principled paradigm for specifying this knowledge, and refining it on the basis of data from the source (training) and target (prediction) tasks. We address the challenging transfer learning setting where the learner (i) cannot fine-tune in the target task, and (ii) does not know which source data points correspond to the same task (i.e., the data sources are unknown). We propose a proxy-informed robust method for probabilistic transfer learning (PROMPT), which provides a posterior predictive estimate tailored to the structure of the target task, without requiring the learner have access to any outcome information from the target task. Instead, PROMPT relies on the availability of proxy information. PROMPT uses the same proxy information for two purposes: (i) estimation of effects specific to the target task, and (ii) construction of a robust reweighting of the source data for estimation of effects that transfer between tasks. We provide theoretical results on the effect of this reweighting on the risk of negative transfer, and demonstrate application of PROMPT in two synthetic settings.