We address the problem of searching for a change point in an anomalous process among a finite set of M processes. Specifically, we address a composite hypothesis model in which each process generates measurements following a common distribution with an unknown parameter (vector). This parameter belongs to either a normal or abnormal space depending on the current state of the process. Before the change point, all processes, including the anomalous one, are in a normal state; after the change point, the anomalous process transitions to an abnormal state. Our goal is to design a sequential search strategy that minimizes the Bayes risk by balancing sample complexity and detection accuracy. We propose a deterministic search algorithm with the following notable properties. First, we analytically demonstrate that when the distributions of both normal and abnormal processes are unknown, the algorithm is asymptotically optimal in minimizing the Bayes risk as the error probability approaches zero. In the second setting, where the parameter under the null hypothesis is known, the algorithm achieves asymptotic optimality with improved detection time based on the true normal state. Simulation results are presented to validate the theoretical findings.

We give a principled method for decomposing the predictive uncertainty of a model into aleatoric and epistemic components with explicit semantics relating them to the real-world data distribution. While many works in the literature have proposed such decompositions, they lack the type of formal guarantees we provide. Our method is based on the new notion of higher-order calibration, which generalizes ordinary calibration to the setting of higher-order predictors that predict mixtures over label distributions at every point. We show how to measure as well as achieve higher-order calibration using access to $k$-snapshots, namely examples where each point has $k$ independent conditional labels. Under higher-order calibration, the estimated aleatoric uncertainty at a point is guaranteed to match the real-world aleatoric uncertainty averaged over all points where the prediction is made. To our knowledge, this is the first formal guarantee of this type that places no assumptions whatsoever on the real-world data distribution. Importantly, higher-order calibration is also applicable to existing higher-order predictors such as Bayesian and ensemble models and provides a natural evaluation metric for such models. We demonstrate through experiments that our method produces meaningful uncertainty decompositions for image classification.

Phylogenetic trees elucidate evolutionary relationships among species, but phylogenetic inference remains challenging due to the complexity of combining continuous (branch lengths) and discrete parameters (tree topology). Traditional Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods face slow convergence and computational burdens. Existing Variational Inference methods, which require pre-generated topologies and typically treat tree structures and branch lengths independently, may overlook critical sequence features, limiting their accuracy and flexibility. We propose PhyloGen, a novel method leveraging a pre-trained genomic language model to generate and optimize phylogenetic trees without dependence on evolutionary models or aligned sequence constraints. PhyloGen views phylogenetic inference as a conditionally constrained tree structure generation problem, jointly optimizing tree topology and branch lengths through three core modules: (i) Feature Extraction, (ii) PhyloTree Construction, and (iii) PhyloTree Structure Modeling. Meanwhile, we introduce a Scoring Function to guide the model towards a more stable gradient descent. We demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of PhyloGen on eight real-world benchmark datasets. Visualization results confirm PhyloGen provides deeper insights into phylogenetic relationships.

Adaptive Traffic Signal Control (ATSC) system is a critical component of intelligent transportation, with the capability to significantly alleviate urban traffic congestion. Although reinforcement learning (RL)-based methods have demonstrated promising performance in achieving ATSC, existing methods are still prone to making unreasonable policies. Therefore, this paper proposes a novel Bayesian Critique-Tune-Based Reinforcement Learning with Adaptive Pressure for multi-intersection signal control (BCT-APLight). In BCT-APLight, the Critique-Tune (CT) framework, a two-layer Bayesian structure is designed to refine the excessive trust of RL policies. Specifically, the Bayesian inference-based Critique Layer provides effective evaluations of the credibility of policies; the Bayesian decision-based Tune Layer fine-tunes policies by minimizing the posterior risks when the evaluations are negative. Meanwhile, an attention-based Adaptive Pressure (AP) mechanism is designed to effectively weight the vehicle queues in each lane, thereby enhancing the rationality of traffic movement representation within the network. Equipped with the CT framework and AP mechanism, BCT-APLight effectively enhances the reasonableness of RL policies. Extensive experiments conducted with a simulator across a range of intersection layouts demonstrate that BCT-APLight is superior to other state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods on seven real-world datasets. Specifically, BCT-APLight decreases average queue length by \textbf{\(\boldsymbol{9.60\%}\)} and average waiting time by \textbf{\(\boldsymbol{15.28\%}\)}.

This work addresses a key limitation in current federated learning approaches, which predominantly focus on homogeneous tasks, neglecting the task diversity on local devices. We propose a principled integration of multi-task learning using multi-output Gaussian processes (MOGP) at the local level and federated learning at the global level. MOGP handles correlated classification and regression tasks, offering a Bayesian non-parametric approach that naturally quantifies uncertainty. The central server aggregates the posteriors from local devices, updating a global MOGP prior redistributed for training local models until convergence. Challenges in performing posterior inference on local devices are addressed through the P\'{o}lya-Gamma augmentation technique and mean-field variational inference, enhancing computational efficiency and convergence rate. Experimental results on both synthetic and real data demonstrate superior predictive performance, OOD detection, uncertainty calibration and convergence rate, highlighting the method's potential in diverse applications. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/JunliangLv/task_diversity_BFL.

Recent advances in statistical learning theory have revealed profound connections between mutual information (MI) bounds, PAC-Bayesian theory, and Bayesian nonparametrics. This work introduces a novel mutual information bound for statistical models. The derived bound has wide-ranging applications in statistical inference. It yields improved contraction rates for fractional posteriors in Bayesian nonparametrics. It can also be used to study a wide range of estimation methods, such as variational inference or Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE). By bridging these diverse areas, this work advances our understanding of the fundamental limits of statistical inference and the role of information in learning from data. We hope that these results will not only clarify connections between statistical inference and information theory but also help to develop a new toolbox to study a wide range of estimators.

Gaussian graphical model selection is an important paradigm with numerous applications, including biological network modeling, financial network modeling, and social network analysis. Traditional approaches assume access to independent and identically distributed (i.i.d) samples, which is often impractical in real-world scenarios. In this paper, we address Gaussian graphical model selection under observations from a more realistic dependent stochastic process known as Glauber dynamics. Glauber dynamics, also called the Gibbs sampler, is a Markov chain that sequentially updates the variables of the underlying model based on the statistics of the remaining model. Such models, aside from frequently being employed to generate samples from complex multivariate distributions, naturally arise in various settings, such as opinion consensus in social networks and clearing/stock-price dynamics in financial networks. In contrast to the extensive body of existing work, we present the first algorithm for Gaussian graphical model selection when data are sampled according to the Glauber dynamics. We provide theoretical guarantees on the computational and statistical complexity of the proposed algorithm's structure learning performance. Additionally, we provide information-theoretic lower bounds on the statistical complexity and show that our algorithm is nearly minimax optimal for a broad class of problems.

This paper presents a Multi-Agent Norm Perception and Induction Learning Model aimed at facilitating the integration of autonomous agent systems into distributed healthcare environments through dynamic interaction processes. The nature of the medical norm system and its sharing channels necessitates distinct approaches for Multi-Agent Systems to learn two types of norms. Building on this foundation, the model enables agents to simultaneously learn descriptive norms, which capture collective tendencies, and prescriptive norms, which dictate ideal behaviors. Through parameterized mixed probability density models and practice-enhanced Markov games, the multi-agent system perceives descriptive norms in dynamic interactions and captures emergent prescriptive norms. We conducted experiments using a dataset from a neurological medical center spanning from 2016 to 2020.

This Dissertation is comprised of two main projects, addressing questions in neuroscience through applications of generative modeling. Project #1 (Chapter 4) explores how neurons encode features of the external world. I combine Helmholtz's "Perception as Unconscious Inference" -- paralleled by modern generative models like variational autoencoders (VAE) -- with the hierarchical structure of the visual cortex. This combination leads to the development of a hierarchical VAE model, which I test for its ability to mimic neurons from the primate visual cortex in response to motion stimuli. Results show that the hierarchical VAE perceives motion similar to the primate brain. Additionally, the model identifies causal factors of retinal motion inputs, such as object- and self-motion, in a completely unsupervised manner. Collectively, these results suggest that hierarchical inference underlines the brain's understanding of the world, and hierarchical VAEs can effectively model this understanding. Project #2 (Chapter 5) investigates the spatiotemporal structure of spontaneous brain activity and its reflection of brain states like rest. Using simultaneous fMRI and wide-field Ca2+ imaging data, this project demonstrates that the mouse cortex can be decomposed into overlapping communities, with around half of the cortical regions belonging to multiple communities. Comparisons reveal similarities and differences between networks inferred from fMRI and Ca2+ signals. The introduction (Chapter 1) is divided similarly to this abstract: sections 1.1 to 1.8 provide background information about Project #1, and sections 1.9 to 1.13 are related to Project #2. Chapter 2 includes historical background, Chapter 3 provides the necessary mathematical background, and finally, Chapter 6 contains concluding remarks and future directions.

Tensor Robust Principal Component Analysis (TRPCA) holds a crucial position in machine learning and computer vision. It aims to recover underlying low-rank structures and characterizing the sparse structures of noise. Current approaches often encounter difficulties in accurately capturing the low-rank properties of tensors and balancing the trade-off between low-rank and sparse components, especially in a mixed-noise scenario. To address these challenges, we introduce a Bayesian framework for TRPCA, which integrates a low-rank tensor nuclear norm prior and a generalized sparsity-inducing prior. By embedding the proposed priors within the Bayesian framework, our method can automatically determine the optimal tensor nuclear norm and achieve a balance between the nuclear norm and sparse components. Furthermore, our method can be efficiently extended to the weighted tensor nuclear norm model. Experiments conducted on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of our method compared to state-of-the-art approaches.