We introduce the microclustering Ewens--Pitman model for random partitions, obtained by scaling the strength parameter of the Ewens--Pitman model linearly with the sample size. The resulting random partition is shown to have the microclustering property, namely: the size of the largest cluster grows sub-linearly with the sample size, while the number of clusters grows linearly. By leveraging the interplay between the Ewens--Pitman random partition with the Pitman--Yor process, we develop efficient variational inference schemes for posterior computation in entity resolution. Our approach achieves a speed-up of three orders of magnitude over existing Bayesian methods for entity resolution, while maintaining competitive empirical performance.

Do larger and more capable language models learn to update their "beliefs" about propositions more consistently with Bayes' theorem when presented with evidence in-context? To test this, we formulate a Bayesian Coherence Coefficient (BCC) metric and generate a dataset with which to measure the BCC. We measure BCC for multiple pre-trained-only language models across five model families, comparing against the number of model parameters, the amount of training data, and model scores on common benchmarks. Our results provide evidence for our hypothesis that larger and more capable pre-trained language models assign credences that are more coherent with Bayes' theorem. These results have important implications for our understanding and governance of LLMs.

The most effective differentially private machine learning algorithms in practice rely on an additional source of purportedly public data. This paradigm is most interesting when the two sources combine to be more than the sum of their parts. However, there are settings such as mean estimation where we have strong lower bounds, showing that when the two data sources have the same distribution, there is no complementary value to combining the two data sources. In this work we extend the known lower bounds for public-private learning to setting where the two data sources exhibit significant distribution shift. Our results apply to both Gaussian mean estimation where the two distributions have different means, and to Gaussian linear regression where the two distributions exhibit parameter shift. We find that when the shift is small (relative to the desired accuracy), either public or private data must be sufficiently abundant to estimate the private parameter. Conversely, when the shift is large, public data provides no benefit.

Age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) provide the most extensive record of reproductive change, but their aggregate nature obscures the individual-level behavioral mechanisms that drive fertility trends. To bridge this micro-macro divide, we introduce a likelihood-free Bayesian framework that couples a demographically interpretable, individual-level simulation model of the reproductive process with Sequential Neural Posterior Estimation (SNPE). We show that this framework successfully recovers core behavioral parameters governing contemporary fertility, including preferences for family size, reproductive timing, and contraceptive failure, using only ASFRs. The framework's effectiveness is validated on cohorts from four countries with diverse fertility regimes. Most compellingly, the model, estimated solely on aggregate data, successfully predicts out-of-sample distributions of individual-level outcomes, including age at first sex, desired family size, and birth intervals. Because our framework yields complete synthetic life histories, it significantly reduces the data requirements for building microsimulation models and enables behaviorally explicit demographic forecasts.

We present a novel approach to help decision-makers efficiently identify preferred solutions from the Pareto set of a multi-objective optimization problem. Our method uses a Bayesian model to estimate the decision-maker's utility function based on pairwise comparisons. Aided by this model, a principled elicitation strategy selects queries interactively to balance exploration and exploitation, guiding the discovery of high-utility solutions. The approach is flexible: it can be used interactively or a posteriori after estimating the Pareto front through standard multi-objective optimization techniques. Additionally, at the end of the elicitation phase, it generates a reduced menu of high-quality solutions, simplifying the decision-making process. Through experiments on test problems with up to nine objectives, our method demonstrates superior performance in finding high-utility solutions with a small number of queries. We also provide an open-source implementation of our method to support its adoption by the broader community.

Inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) play a crucial role in various fields, including computational science, image processing, and engineering. Particularly, Darcy flow equation is a fundamental equation in fluid mechanics, which plays a crucial role in understanding fluid flow through porous media. Bayesian methods provide an effective approach for solving PDEs inverse problems, while their numerical implementation requires numerous evaluations of computationally expensive forward solvers. Therefore, the adoption of surrogate models with lower computational costs is essential. However, constructing a globally accurate surrogate model for high-dimensional complex problems demands high model capacity and large amounts of data. To address this challenge, this study proposes an efficient locally accurate surrogate that focuses on the high-probability regions of the true likelihood in inverse problems, with relatively low model complexity and few training data requirements. Additionally, we introduce a sequential Bayesian design strategy to acquire the proposed surrogate since the high-probability region of the likelihood is unknown. The strategy treats the posterior evolution process of sequential Bayesian design as a Gaussian process, enabling algorithmic acceleration through one-step ahead prior. The complete algorithmic framework is referred to as Sequential Bayesian design for locally accurate surrogate (SBD-LAS). Finally, three experiments based the Darcy flow equation demonstrate the advantages of the proposed method in terms of both inversion accuracy and computational speed.

Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) has emerged as a powerful approach for amortized Bayesian inference when the true posterior $p(θ\mid y)$ is intractable or difficult to sample. But evaluating the accuracy of neural posterior estimates remains challenging, with existing methods suffering from major limitations. One appealing and widely used method is the classifier two-sample test (C2ST), where a classifier is trained to distinguish samples from the true posterior $p(θ\mid y)$ versus the learned NPE approximation $q(θ\mid y)$. Yet despite the appealing simplicity of the C2ST, its theoretical and practical reliability depend upon having access to a near-Bayes-optimal classifier -- a requirement that is rarely met and, at best, difficult to verify. Thus a major open question is: can a weak classifier still be useful for neural posterior validation? We show that the answer is yes. Building on the work of Hu and Lei, we present several key results for a conformal variant of the C2ST, which converts any trained classifier's scores -- even those of weak or over-fitted models -- into exact finite-sample p-values. We establish two key theoretical properties of the conformal C2ST: (i) finite-sample Type-I error control, and (ii) non-trivial power that degrades gently in tandem with the error of the trained classifier. The upshot is that even weak, biased, or overfit classifiers can still yield powerful and reliable tests. Empirically, the Conformal C2ST outperforms classical discriminative tests across a wide range of benchmarks. These results reveal the under appreciated strength of weak classifiers for validating neural posterior estimates, establishing the conformal C2ST as a practical, theoretically grounded diagnostic for modern simulation-based inference.

Previous studies have shown that hazard ratios between treatment groups estimated with the Cox model are uninterpretable because the indefinite baseline hazard of the model fails to identify temporal change in the risk set composition due to treatment assignment and unobserved factors among multiple, contradictory scenarios. To alleviate this problem, especially in studies based on observational data with uncontrolled dynamic treatment and real-time measurement of many covariates, we propose abandoning the baseline hazard and using machine learning to explicitly model the change in the risk set with or without latent variables. For this framework, we clarify the context in which hazard ratios can be causally interpreted, and then develop a method based on Neyman orthogonality to compute debiased maximum-likelihood estimators of hazard ratios. Computing the constructed estimators is more efficient than computing those based on weighted regression with marginal structural Cox models. Numerical simulations confirm that the proposed method identifies the ground truth with minimal bias. These results lay the foundation for developing a useful, alternative method for causal inference with uncontrolled, observational data in modern epidemiology.

--Federated learning is a paradigm of increasing relevance in real world applications, aimed at building a global model across a network of heterogeneous users without requiring the sharing of private data. We focus on model learning over decentralized architectures, where users collaborate directly to update the global model without relying on a central server . In this context, the current paper proposes a novel approach to collaboratively learn probabilistic generative classifiers with a parametric form. The framework is composed by a communication network over a set of local nodes, each of one having its own local data, and a local updating rule. The proposal involves sharing local statistics with neighboring nodes, where each node aggregates the neighbors' information and iteratively learns its own local classifier, which progressively converges to a global model. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the algorithm consistently converges to a globally competitive model across a wide range of network topologies, network sizes, local dataset sizes, and extreme non-i.i.d. In recent years, federated learning (FL) [1], [2] has gained increasing attention from both the research community [3], [4] and private companies [5], [6], as it enables the development of machine learning models across multiple users without requiring data centralization. This design inherently offers a fundamental layer of privacy while reducing the costs associated with massive data storage. FL traditionally achieves this by using a user-server architecture, where users train local models and share updates with a central server that aggregates them to build a global model [7], [8]. In contrast, decentralized FL [4], [9], [10] eliminates the need for a central server by enabling users to communicate directly and collaboratively train machine learning models.

Probabilistic graphical modeling is a branch of machine learning that uses probability distributions to describe the world, make predictions, and support decision-making under uncertainty. Underlying this modeling framework is an elegant body of theory that bridges two mathematical traditions: probability and graph theory. This framework provides compact yet expressive representations of joint probability distributions, yielding powerful generative models for probabilistic reasoning. This tutorial provides a concise introduction to the formalisms, methods, and applications of this modeling framework. After a review of basic probability and graph theory, we explore three dominant themes: (1) the representation of multivariate distributions in the intuitive visual language of graphs, (2) algorithms for learning model parameters and graphical structures from data, and (3) algorithms for inference, both exact and approximate.