In this paper, we extend the transfer learning classification framework from regression function-based methods to decision rules. We propose a novel methodology for modeling posterior drift through Bayes decision rules. By exploiting the geometric transformation of the Bayes decision boundary, our method reformulates the problem as a low-dimensional empirical risk minimization problem. Under mild regularity conditions, we establish the consistency of our estimators and derive the risk bounds. Moreover, we illustrate the broad applicability of our method by adapting it to the estimation of optimal individualized treatment rules. Extensive simulation studies and analyses of real-world data further demonstrate both superior performance and robustness of our approach.

Latent variable models provide a powerful framework for incorporating and inferring unobserved factors in observational data. In causal inference, they help account for hidden factors influencing treatment or outcome, thereby addressing challenges posed by missing or unmeasured covariates. This paper proposes a new framework that integrates latent variable modeling into the double machine learning (DML) paradigm to enable robust causal effect estimation in the presence of such hidden factors. We consider two scenarios: one where a latent variable affects only the outcome, and another where it may influence both treatment and outcome. To ensure tractability, we incorporate latent variables only in the second stage of DML, separating representation learning from latent inference. We demonstrate the robustness and effectiveness of our method through extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets.

A unified theory of language combines a Bayesian cognitive linguistic model of language processing, with the proposal that language evolved by sexual selection for the display of intelligence. The theory accounts for the major facts of language, including its speed and expressivity, and data on language diversity, pragmatics, syntax and semantics. The computational element of the theory is based on Construction Grammars. These give an account of the syntax and semantics of the worlds languages, using constructions and unification. Two novel elements are added to construction grammars: an account of language pragmatics, and an account of fast, precise language learning. Constructions are represented in the mind as graph like feature structures. People use slow general inference to understand the first few examples they hear of any construction. After that it is learned as a feature structure, and is rapidly applied by unification. All aspects of language (phonology, syntax, semantics, and pragmatics) are seamlessly computed by fast unification; there is no boundary between semantics and pragmatics. This accounts for the major puzzles of pragmatics, and for detailed pragmatic phenomena. Unification is Bayesian maximum likelihood pattern matching. This gives evolutionary continuity between language processing in the human brain, and Bayesian cognition in animal brains. Language is the basis of our mind reading abilities, our cooperation, self esteem and emotions; the foundations of human culture and society.

We present a novel theoretical interpretation of AlphaFold1 that reveals the potential of generalized Bayesian updating for probabilistic deep learning. The seminal breakthrough of AlphaFold1 in protein structure prediction by deep learning relied on a learned potential energy function, in contrast to the later end-to-end architectures of AlphaFold2 and AlphaFold3. While this potential was originally justified by referring to physical potentials of mean force (PMFs), we reinterpret AlphaFold1's potential as an instance of {\em probability kinematics} -- also known as {\em Jeffrey conditioning} -- a principled but under-recognised generalization of conventional Bayesian updating. Probability kinematics accommodates uncertain or {\em soft} evidence in the form of updated probabilities over a partition. This perspective reveals AlphaFold1's potential as a form of generalized Bayesian updating, rather than a thermodynamic potential. To confirm our probabilistic framework's scope and precision, we analyze a synthetic 2D model in which an angular random walk prior is updated with evidence on distances via probability kinematics, mirroring AlphaFold1's approach. This theoretical contribution connects AlphaFold1 to a broader class of well-justified Bayesian methods, allowing precise quantification, surpassing merely qualitative heuristics based on PMFs. Our contribution is theoretical: we replace AlphaFold1's heuristic analogy with a principled probabilistic framework, tested in a controlled synthetic setting where correctness can be assessed. More broadly, our results point to the considerable promise of probability kinematics for probabilistic deep learning, by allowing the formulation of complex models from a few simpler components.

Federated learning (FL) is a privacy-preserving machine learning paradigm that enables collaborative model training across multiple distributed clients without disclosing their raw data. Personalized federated learning (pFL) has gained increasing attention for its ability to address data heterogeneity. However, most existing pFL methods assume that each client's data follows a single distribution and learn one client-level personalized model for each client. This assumption often fails in practice, where a single client may possess data from multiple sources or domains, resulting in significant intra-client heterogeneity and suboptimal performance. To tackle this challenge, we propose pFedBayesPT, a fine-grained instance-wise pFL framework based on visual prompt tuning. Specifically, we formulate instance-wise prompt generation from a Bayesian perspective and model the prompt posterior as an implicit distribution to capture diverse visual semantics. We derive a variational training objective under the semi-implicit variational inference framework. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that pFedBayesPT consistently outperforms existing pFL methods under both feature and label heterogeneity settings.

Neural density estimation has seen widespread applications in the gravitational-wave (GW) data analysis, which enables real-time parameter estimation for compact binary coalescences and enhances rapid inference for subsequent analysis such as population inference. In this work, we explore the application of using the Kolmogorov-Arnold network (KAN) to construct efficient and interpretable neural density estimators for lightweight posterior construction of GW catalogs. By replacing conventional activation functions with learnable splines, KAN achieves superior interpretability, higher accuracy, and greater parameter efficiency on related scientific tasks. Leveraging this feature, we propose a KAN-based neural density estimator, which ingests megabyte-scale GW posterior samples and compresses them into model weights of tens of kilobytes. Subsequently, analytic expressions requiring only several kilobytes can be further distilled from these neural network weights with minimal accuracy trade-off. In practice, GW posterior samples with fidelity can be regenerated rapidly using the model weights or analytic expressions for subsequent analysis. Our lightweight posterior construction strategy is expected to facilitate user-level data storage and transmission, paving a path for efficient analysis of numerous GW events in the next-generation GW detectors.

Preference-based reinforcement learning has gained prominence as a strategy for training agents in environments where the reward signal is difficult to specify or misaligned with human intent. However, its effectiveness is often limited by the high cost and low availability of reliable human input, especially in domains where expert feedback is scarce or errors are costly. To address this, we propose a novel framework that combines two complementary strategies: probabilistic crowd modelling to handle noisy, multi-annotator feedback, and active learning to prioritize feedback on the most informative agent actions. We extend the Advise algorithm to support multiple trainers, estimate their reliability online, and incorporate entropy-based query selection to guide feedback requests. We evaluate our approach in a set of environments that span both synthetic and real-world-inspired settings, including 2D games (Taxi, Pacman, Frozen Lake) and a blood glucose control task for Type 1 Diabetes using the clinically approved UVA/Padova simulator. Our preliminary results demonstrate that agents trained with feedback on uncertain trajectories exhibit faster learning in most tasks, and we outperform the baselines for the blood glucose control task.

Accurate modelling and quantification of predictive uncertainty is crucial in deep learning since it allows a model to make safer decisions when the data is ambiguous and facilitates the users' understanding of the model's confidence in its predictions. Along with the tremendously increasing research focus on \emph{graph neural networks} (GNNs) in recent years, there have been numerous techniques which strive to capture the uncertainty in their predictions. However, most of these approaches are specifically designed for node or link-level tasks and cannot be directly applied to graph-level learning problems. In this paper, we propose a novel variational modelling framework for the \emph{posterior predictive distribution}~(PPD) to obtain uncertainty-aware prediction in graph-level learning tasks. Based on a graph-level embedding derived from one of the existing GNNs, our framework can learn the PPD in a data-adaptive fashion. Experimental results on several benchmark datasets exhibit the effectiveness of our approach.

We propose a novel Bayesian nonparametric classification model that combines a Gaussian process prior for the latent function with a Dirichlet process prior for the link function, extending the interpretative framework of de Finetti representation theorem and the construction of random distribution functions made by Ferguson (1973). This approach allows for flexible uncertainty modeling in both the latent score and the mapping to probabilities. We demonstrate the method performance using simulated data where it outperforms standard logistic regression.

These lecture notes evolve around mathematical concepts arising in inverse problems. We start by introducing inverse problems through examples such as differentiation, deconvolution, computed tomography and phase retrieval. This then leads us to the framework of well-posedness and first considerations regarding reconstruction and inversion approaches. The second chapter then first deals with classical regularization theory of inverse problems in Hilbert spaces. After introducing the pseudo-inverse, we review the concept of convergent regularization. Within this chapter we then proceed to ask the question of how to realize practical reconstruction algorithms. Here, we mainly focus on Tikhonov and sparsity promoting regularization in finite dimensional spaces. In the third chapter, we dive into modern deep-learning methods, which allow solving inverse problems in a data-dependent approach. The intersection between inverse problems and machine learning is a rapidly growing field and our exposition here restricts itself to a very limited selection of topics. Among them are learned regularization, fully-learned Bayesian estimation, post-processing strategies and plug-n-play methods.