Bayesian Inference
On Word-of-Mouth and Private-Prior Sequential Social Learning
Da Col, Andrea, Rojas, Cristian R., Krishnamurthy, Vikram
-- Social learning constitutes a fundamental framework for studying interactions among rational agents who observe each other's actions but lack direct access to individual beliefs. This paper investigates a specific social learning paradigm known as Word-of-Mouth (WoM), where a series of agents seeks to estimate the state of a dynamical system. The first agent receives noisy measurements of the state, while each subsequent agent relies solely on a degraded version of her predecessor's estimate. A defining feature of WoM is that the final agent's belief is publicly broadcast and subsequently adopted by all agents, in place of their own. We analyze this setting theoretically and through numerical simulations, noting that some agents benefit from using the belief of the last agent, while others experience performance deterioration.
Performance Analysis of Supervised Machine Learning Algorithms for Text Classification
Mishu, Sadia Zaman, Rafiuddin, S M
The demand for text classification is growing significantly in web searching, data mining, web ranking, recommendation systems, and so many other fields of information and technology. This paper illustrates the text classification process on different datasets using some standard supervised machine learning techniques. Text documents can be classified through various kinds of classifiers. Labeled text documents are used to classify the text in supervised classifications. This paper applies these classifiers on different kinds of labeled documents and measures the accuracy of the classifiers. An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model using Back Propagation Network (BPN) is used with several other models to create an independent platform for labeled and supervised text classification process. An existing benchmark approach is used to analyze the performance of classification using labeled documents. Experimental analysis on real data reveals which model works well in terms of classification accuracy.
Financial Decision Making using Reinforcement Learning with Dirichlet Priors and Quantum-Inspired Genetic Optimization
Nandy, Prasun, Dhar, Debjit, Das, Rik
Traditional budget allocation models struggle with the stochastic and nonlinear nature of real-world financial data. This study proposes a hybrid reinforcement learning (RL) framework for dynamic budget allocation, enhanced with Dirichlet-inspired stochasticity and quantum mutation-based genetic optimization. Using Apple Inc. quarterly financial data (2009 to 2025), the RL agent learns to allocate budgets between Research and Development and Selling, General and Administrative to maximize profitability while adhering to historical spending patterns, with L2 penalties discouraging unrealistic deviations. A Dirichlet distribution governs state evolution to simulate shifting financial contexts. To escape local minima and improve generalization, the trained policy is refined using genetic algorithms with quantum mutation via parameterized qubit rotation circuits. Generation-wise rewards and penalties are logged to visualize convergence and policy behavior. On unseen fiscal data, the model achieves high alignment with actual allocations (cosine similarity 0.9990, KL divergence 0.0023), demonstrating the promise of combining deep RL, stochastic modeling, and quantum-inspired heuristics for adaptive enterprise budgeting.
Data-driven Discovery of Digital Twins in Biomedical Research
Métayer, Clémence, Ballesta, Annabelle, Martinelli, Julien
Recent technological advances have expanded the availability of high-throughput biological datasets, enabling the reliable design of digital twins of biomedical systems or patients. Such computational tools represent key reaction networks driving perturbation or drug response and can guide drug discovery and personalized therapeutics. Yet, their development still relies on laborious data integration by the human modeler, so that automated approaches are critically needed. The success of data-driven system discovery in Physics, rooted in clean datasets and well-defined governing laws, has fueled interest in applying similar techniques in Biology, which presents unique challenges. Here, we reviewed methodologies for automatically inferring digital twins from biological time series, which mostly involve symbolic or sparse regression. We evaluate algorithms according to eight biological and methodological challenges, associated to noisy/incomplete data, multiple conditions, prior knowledge integration, latent variables, high dimensionality, unobserved variable derivatives, candidate library design, and uncertainty quantification. Upon these criteria, sparse regression generally outperformed symbolic regression, particularly when using Bayesian frameworks. We further highlight the emerging role of deep learning and large language models, which enable innovative prior knowledge integration, though the reliability and consistency of such approaches must be improved. While no single method addresses all challenges, we argue that progress in learning digital twins will come from hybrid and modular frameworks combining chemical reaction network-based mechanistic grounding, Bayesian uncertainty quantification, and the generative and knowledge integration capacities of deep learning. To support their development, we further propose a benchmarking framework to evaluate methods across all challenges.
Structuring GUI Elements through Vision Language Models: Towards Action Space Generation
Xu, Yi, Zhang, Yesheng, Liu, Jiajia, Chen, Jingdong
Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have emerged as pivotal tools in enhancing human-computer interaction. In this paper we focus on the application of MLLMs in the field of graphical user interface (GUI) elements structuring, where they assist in processing user instructions based on screen contents. Despite the promise of MLLMs, their performance in precisely generating UI element coordinates, a critical aspect of GUI understanding, is hindered by the nature of next-token prediction training. This challenge arises from the semantic void surrounding numerical UI coordinates in language representation spaces, necessitating a substantial and diverse dataset to bolster visual module capabilities. T o address these limitations, we introduce an IoU-Augmented Maximum Likelihood (IAML) training paradigm. Specifically, our approach involves a novel pipeline for IoU-based coordinate sampling to augment the training data, which considers the proximity to ground truth coordinates. This data augmentation strategy is then employed to fine-tune MLLMs under the IAML paradigm, which is designed to mitigate the exposure bias problem inherent in traditional maximum likelihood estimation. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate the superior performance of our IAML training approach over traditional training paradigms.
Privacy Auditing Synthetic Data Release through Local Likelihood Attacks
Ward, Joshua, Wang, Chi-Hua, Cheng, Guang
Auditing the privacy leakage of synthetic data is an important but unresolved problem. Most existing privacy auditing frameworks for synthetic data rely on heuristics and unreasonable assumptions to attack the failure modes of generative models, exhibiting limited capability to describe and detect the privacy exposure of training data through synthetic data release. In this paper, we study designing Membership Inference Attacks (MIAs) that specifically exploit the observation that tabular generative models tend to significantly overfit to certain regions of the training distribution. Here, we propose Generative Likelihood Ratio Attack (Gen-LRA), a novel, computationally efficient No-Box MIA that, with no assumption of model knowledge or access, formulates its attack by evaluating the influence a test observation has in a surrogate model's estimation of a local likelihood ratio over the synthetic data. Assessed over a comprehensive benchmark spanning diverse datasets, model architectures, and attack parameters, we find that Gen-LRA consistently dominates other MIAs for generative models across multiple performance metrics. These results underscore Gen-LRA's effectiveness as a privacy auditing tool for the release of synthetic data, highlighting the significant privacy risks posed by generative model overfitting in real-world applications.
Priors Matter: Addressing Misspecification in Bayesian Deep Q-Learning
van der Vaart, Pascal R., Yorke-Smith, Neil, Spaan, Matthijs T. J.
Uncertainty quantification in reinforcement learning can greatly improve exploration and robustness. Approximate Bayesian approaches have recently been popularized to quantify uncertainty in model-free algorithms. However, so far the focus has been on improving the accuracy of the posterior approximation, instead of studying the accuracy of the prior and likelihood assumptions underlying the posterior. In this work, we demonstrate that there is a cold posterior effect in Bayesian deep Q-learning, where contrary to theory, performance increases when reducing the temperature of the posterior. To identify and overcome likely causes, we challenge common assumptions made on the likelihood and priors in Bayesian model-free algorithms. We empirically study prior distributions and show through statistical tests that the common Gaussian likelihood assumption is frequently violated. We argue that developing more suitable likelihoods and priors should be a key focus in future Bayesian reinforcement learning research and we offer simple, implementable solutions for better priors in deep Q-learning that lead to more performant Bayesian algorithms.
Controllable 3D Molecular Generation for Structure-Based Drug Design Through Bayesian Flow Networks and Gradient Integration
Choi, Seungyeon, Kim, Hwanhee, Park, Chihyun, Lee, Dahyeon, Lee, Seungyong, Kim, Yoonju, Park, Hyoungjoon, Kwon, Sein, Jo, Youngwan, Park, Sanghyun
Recent advances in Structure-based Drug Design (SBDD) have leveraged generative models for 3D molecular generation, predominantly evaluating model performance by binding affinity to target proteins. However, practical drug discovery necessitates high binding affinity along with synthetic feasibility and selectivity, critical properties that were largely neglected in previous evaluations. To address this gap, we identify fundamental limitations of conventional diffusion-based generative models in effectively guiding molecule generation toward these diverse pharmacological properties. We propose CByG, a novel framework extending Bayesian Flow Network into a gradient-based conditional generative model that robustly integrates property-specific guidance. Additionally, we introduce a comprehensive evaluation scheme incorporating practical benchmarks for binding affinity, synthetic feasibility, and selectivity, overcoming the limitations of conventional evaluation methods. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our proposed CByG framework significantly outperforms baseline models across multiple essential evaluation criteria, highlighting its effectiveness and practicality for real-world drug discovery applications.
Normalized Maximum Likelihood Code-Length on Riemannian Manifold Data Spaces
Fukuzawa, Kota, Suzuki, Atsushi, Yamanishi, Kenji
--In recent years, with the large-scale expansion of graph data, there has been an increased focus on Riemannian manifold data spaces other than Euclidean space. In particular, the development of hyperbolic spaces has been remarkable, and they have high expressive power for graph data with hierarchical structures. Normalized Maximum Likelihood (NML) is employed in regret minimization and model selection. However, existing formulations of NML have been developed primarily in Euclidean spaces and are inherently dependent on the choice of coordinate systems, making it non-trivial to extend NML to Riemannian manifolds. In this study, we define a new NML that reflects the geometric structure of Riemannian manifolds, called the Riemannian manifold NML (Rm-NML). This Rm-NML is invariant under coordinate transformations and coincides with the conventional NML under the natural parameterization in Euclidean space. We extend existing computational techniques for NML to the setting of Riemannian manifolds. Furthermore, we derive a method to simplify the computation of Rm-NML on Riemannian symmetric spaces, which encompass data spaces of growing interest such as hyperbolic spaces. T o illustrate the practical application of our proposed method, we explicitly computed the Rm-NML for normal distributions on hyperbolic spaces. With the recent increase in the scale of graph data, Riemannian manifold data spaces other than Euclidian spaces are attracting attention as latent spaces suitable for graph embedding [1, 2]. For example, hyperbolic spaces have been demonstrated to possess high expressive power for graph data with hierarchical structures [3]. Spherical spaces are particularly effective in representing graph data with cyclic structures [4]. Notably, research on hyperbolic spaces has been particularly remarkable[3]. Specifically, in the field of representation learning, methods that embed hierarchical structures into hyperbolic space have successfully represented such relationships using significantly lower-dimensional space compared to conventional methods based on Euclidean space, while preserving the essential relational information[2].
Towards Trustworthy Amortized Bayesian Model Comparison
Kucharský, Šimon, Mishra, Aayush, Habermann, Daniel, Radev, Stefan T., Bürkner, Paul-Christian
Amortized Bayesian model comparison (BMC) enables fast probabilistic ranking of models via simulation-based training of neural surrogates. However, the reliability of neural surrogates deteriorates when simulation models are misspecified - the very case where model comparison is most needed. Thus, we supplement simulation-based training with a self-consistency (SC) loss on unlabeled real data to improve BMC estimates under empirical distribution shifts. Using a numerical experiment and two case studies with real data, we compare amortized evidence estimates with and without SC against analytic or bridge sampling benchmarks. SC improves calibration under model misspecification when having access to analytic likelihoods. However, it offers limited gains with neural surrogate likelihoods, making it most practical for trustworthy BMC when likelihoods are exact.