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 Bayesian Inference


Towards Instance-wise Personalized Federated Learning via Semi-Implicit Bayesian Prompt Tuning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Federated learning (FL) is a privacy-preserving machine learning paradigm that enables collaborative model training across multiple distributed clients without disclosing their raw data. Personalized federated learning (pFL) has gained increasing attention for its ability to address data heterogeneity. However, most existing pFL methods assume that each client's data follows a single distribution and learn one client-level personalized model for each client. This assumption often fails in practice, where a single client may possess data from multiple sources or domains, resulting in significant intra-client heterogeneity and suboptimal performance. To tackle this challenge, we propose pFedBayesPT, a fine-grained instance-wise pFL framework based on visual prompt tuning. Specifically, we formulate instance-wise prompt generation from a Bayesian perspective and model the prompt posterior as an implicit distribution to capture diverse visual semantics. We derive a variational training objective under the semi-implicit variational inference framework. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that pFedBayesPT consistently outperforms existing pFL methods under both feature and label heterogeneity settings.


Lightweight posterior construction for gravitational-wave catalogs with the Kolmogorov-Arnold network

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Neural density estimation has seen widespread applications in the gravitational-wave (GW) data analysis, which enables real-time parameter estimation for compact binary coalescences and enhances rapid inference for subsequent analysis such as population inference. In this work, we explore the application of using the Kolmogorov-Arnold network (KAN) to construct efficient and interpretable neural density estimators for lightweight posterior construction of GW catalogs. By replacing conventional activation functions with learnable splines, KAN achieves superior interpretability, higher accuracy, and greater parameter efficiency on related scientific tasks. Leveraging this feature, we propose a KAN-based neural density estimator, which ingests megabyte-scale GW posterior samples and compresses them into model weights of tens of kilobytes. Subsequently, analytic expressions requiring only several kilobytes can be further distilled from these neural network weights with minimal accuracy trade-off. In practice, GW posterior samples with fidelity can be regenerated rapidly using the model weights or analytic expressions for subsequent analysis. Our lightweight posterior construction strategy is expected to facilitate user-level data storage and transmission, paving a path for efficient analysis of numerous GW events in the next-generation GW detectors.


Active Query Selection for Crowd-Based Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Preference-based reinforcement learning has gained prominence as a strategy for training agents in environments where the reward signal is difficult to specify or misaligned with human intent. However, its effectiveness is often limited by the high cost and low availability of reliable human input, especially in domains where expert feedback is scarce or errors are costly. To address this, we propose a novel framework that combines two complementary strategies: probabilistic crowd modelling to handle noisy, multi-annotator feedback, and active learning to prioritize feedback on the most informative agent actions. We extend the Advise algorithm to support multiple trainers, estimate their reliability online, and incorporate entropy-based query selection to guide feedback requests. We evaluate our approach in a set of environments that span both synthetic and real-world-inspired settings, including 2D games (Taxi, Pacman, Frozen Lake) and a blood glucose control task for Type 1 Diabetes using the clinically approved UVA/Padova simulator. Our preliminary results demonstrate that agents trained with feedback on uncertain trajectories exhibit faster learning in most tasks, and we outperform the baselines for the blood glucose control task.


GraphPPD: Posterior Predictive Modelling for Graph-Level Inference

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Accurate modelling and quantification of predictive uncertainty is crucial in deep learning since it allows a model to make safer decisions when the data is ambiguous and facilitates the users' understanding of the model's confidence in its predictions. Along with the tremendously increasing research focus on \emph{graph neural networks} (GNNs) in recent years, there have been numerous techniques which strive to capture the uncertainty in their predictions. However, most of these approaches are specifically designed for node or link-level tasks and cannot be directly applied to graph-level learning problems. In this paper, we propose a novel variational modelling framework for the \emph{posterior predictive distribution}~(PPD) to obtain uncertainty-aware prediction in graph-level learning tasks. Based on a graph-level embedding derived from one of the existing GNNs, our framework can learn the PPD in a data-adaptive fashion. Experimental results on several benchmark datasets exhibit the effectiveness of our approach.


From Partial Exchangeability to Predictive Probability: A Bayesian Perspective on Classification

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose a novel Bayesian nonparametric classification model that combines a Gaussian process prior for the latent function with a Dirichlet process prior for the link function, extending the interpretative framework of de Finetti representation theorem and the construction of random distribution functions made by Ferguson (1973). This approach allows for flexible uncertainty modeling in both the latent score and the mapping to probabilities. We demonstrate the method performance using simulated data where it outperforms standard logistic regression.


Introduction to Regularization and Learning Methods for Inverse Problems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

These lecture notes evolve around mathematical concepts arising in inverse problems. We start by introducing inverse problems through examples such as differentiation, deconvolution, computed tomography and phase retrieval. This then leads us to the framework of well-posedness and first considerations regarding reconstruction and inversion approaches. The second chapter then first deals with classical regularization theory of inverse problems in Hilbert spaces. After introducing the pseudo-inverse, we review the concept of convergent regularization. Within this chapter we then proceed to ask the question of how to realize practical reconstruction algorithms. Here, we mainly focus on Tikhonov and sparsity promoting regularization in finite dimensional spaces. In the third chapter, we dive into modern deep-learning methods, which allow solving inverse problems in a data-dependent approach. The intersection between inverse problems and machine learning is a rapidly growing field and our exposition here restricts itself to a very limited selection of topics. Among them are learned regularization, fully-learned Bayesian estimation, post-processing strategies and plug-n-play methods.


Practical Equivalence Testing and Its Application in Synthetic Pre-Crash Scenario Validation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The use of representative pre-crash scenarios is critical for assessing the safety impact of driving automation systems through simulation. However, a gap remains in the robust evaluation of the similarity between synthetic and real-world pre-crash scenarios and their crash characteristics. Without proper validation, it cannot be ensured that the synthetic test scenarios adequately represent real-world driving behaviors and crash characteristics. One reason for this validation gap is the lack of focus on methods to confirm that the synthetic test scenarios are practically equivalent to real-world ones, given the assessment scope. Traditional statistical methods, like significance testing, focus on detecting differences rather than establishing equivalence; since failure to detect a difference does not imply equivalence, they are of limited applicability for validating synthetic pre-crash scenarios and crash characteristics. This study addresses this gap by proposing an equivalence testing method based on the Bayesian Region of Practical Equivalence (ROPE) framework. This method is designed to assess the practical equivalence of scenario characteristics that are most relevant for the intended assessment, making it particularly appropriate for the domain of virtual safety assessments. We first review existing equivalence testing methods. Then we propose and demonstrate the Bayesian ROPE-based method by testing the equivalence of two rear-end pre-crash datasets. Our approach focuses on the most relevant scenario characteristics. Our analysis provides insights into the practicalities and effectiveness of equivalence testing in synthetic test scenario validation and demonstrates the importance of testing for improving the credibility of synthetic data for automated vehicle safety assessment, as well as the credibility of subsequent safety impact assessments.


Heterogeneous co-occurrence embedding for visual information exploration

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper proposes an embedding method for co-occurrence data aimed at visual information exploration. We consider cases where co-occurrence probabilities are measured between pairs of elements from heterogeneous domains. The proposed method maps these heterogeneous elements into corresponding two-dimensional latent spaces, enabling visualization of asymmetric relationships between the domains. The key idea is to embed the elements in a way that maximizes their mutual information, thereby preserving the original dependency structure as much as possible. This approach can be naturally extended to cases involving three or more domains, using a generalization of mutual information known as total correlation. For inter-domain analysis, we also propose a visualization method that assigns colors to the latent spaces based on conditional probabilities, allowing users to explore asymmetric relationships interactively. We demonstrate the utility of the method through applications to an adjective-noun dataset, the NeurIPS dataset, and a subject-verb-object dataset, showcasing both intra- and inter-domain analysis.


Uncertainty Propagation Networks for Neural Ordinary Differential Equations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper introduces Uncertainty Propagation Network (UPN), a novel family of neural differential equations that naturally incorporate uncertainty quantification into continuous-time modeling. Unlike existing neural ODEs that predict only state trajectories, UPN simultaneously model both state evolution and its associated uncertainty by parameterizing coupled differential equations for mean and covariance dynamics. The architecture efficiently propagates uncertainty through nonlinear dynamics without discretization artifacts by solving coupled ODEs for state and covariance evolution while enabling state-dependent, learnable process noise. The continuous-depth formulation adapts its evaluation strategy to each input's complexity, provides principled uncertainty quantification, and handles irregularly-sampled observations naturally. Experimental results demonstrate UPN's effectiveness across multiple domains: continuous normalizing flows (CNFs) with uncertainty quantification, time-series forecasting with well-calibrated confidence intervals, and robust trajectory prediction in both stable and chaotic dynamical systems.


Modeling Probabilistic Reduction using Information Theory and Naive Discriminative Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study compares probabilistic predictors based on information theory with Naive Discriminative Learning (NDL) predictors in modeling acoustic word duration, focusing on probabilistic reduction. We examine three models using the Buckeye corpus: one with NDL-derived predictors using information-theoretic formulas, one with traditional NDL predictors, and one with N-gram probabilistic predictors. Results show that the N-gram model outperforms both NDL models, challenging the assumption that NDL is more effective due to its cognitive motivation. However, incorporating information-theoretic formulas into NDL improves model performance over the traditional model. This research highlights a) the need to incorporate not only frequency and contextual predictability but also average contextual predictability, and b) the importance of combining information-theoretic metrics of predictability and information derived from discriminative learning in modeling acoustic reduction.