The Bayesian paradigm offers principled tools for sequential decision-making under uncertainty, but its reliance on a probabilistic model for all parameters can hinder the incorporation of complex structural constraints. We introduce a minimalist Bayesian framework that places a prior only on the component of interest, such as the location of the optimum. Nuisance parameters are eliminated via profile likelihood, which naturally handles constraints. As a direct instantiation, we develop a MINimalist Thompson Sampling (MINTS) algorithm. Our framework accommodates structured problems, including continuum-armed Lipschitz bandits and dynamic pricing. It also provides a probabilistic lens on classical convex optimization algorithms such as the center of gravity and ellipsoid methods. We further analyze MINTS for multi-armed bandits and establish near-optimal regret guarantees.

Transformers have exhibited exceptional capabilities in sequence modeling tasks, leveraging self-attention and in-context learning. Critical to this success are induction heads, attention circuits that enable copying tokens based on their previous occurrences. In this work, we introduce a novel framework that showcases transformers' ability to dynamically handle causal structures. Existing works rely on Markov Chains to study the formation of induction heads, revealing how transformers capture causal dependencies and learn transition probabilities in-context. However, they rely on a fixed causal structure that fails to capture the complexity of natural languages, where the relationship between tokens dynamically changes with context. To this end, our framework varies the causal structure through interleaved Markov chains with different lags while keeping the transition probabilities fixed. This setting unveils the formation of Selective Induction Heads, a new circuit that endows transformers with the ability to select the correct causal structure in-context. We empirically demonstrate that transformers learn this mechanism to predict the next token by identifying the correct lag and copying the corresponding token from the past. We provide a detailed construction of a 3-layer transformer to implement the selective induction head, and a theoretical analysis proving that this mechanism asymptotically converges to the maximum likelihood solution. Our findings advance the understanding of how transformers select causal structures, providing new insights into their functioning and interpretability.

Sparse regression problems, where the goal is to identify a small set of relevant predictors, often require modeling not only main effects but also meaningful interactions through other variables. While the pliable lasso has emerged as a powerful frequentist tool for modeling such interactions under strong heredity constraints, it lacks a natural framework for uncertainty quantification and incorporation of prior knowledge. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian pliable lasso that extends this approach by placing sparsity-inducing priors, such as the horseshoe, on both main and interaction effects. The hierarchical prior structure enforces heredity constraints while adaptively shrinking irrelevant coefficients and allowing important effects to persist. We extend this framework to Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) and develop a tailored approach to handle missing responses. To facilitate posterior inference, we develop an efficient Gibbs sampling algorithm based on a reparameterization of the horseshoe prior. Our Bayesian framework yields sparse, interpretable interaction structures, and principled measures of uncertainty. Through simulations and real-data studies, we demonstrate its advantages over existing methods in recovering complex interaction patterns under both complete and incomplete data. Our method is implemented in the package \texttt{hspliable} available on Github.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Working Party on Nuclear Criticality Safety (WPNCS) proposed a benchmark exercise to assess the performance of current nuclear data adjustment techniques applied to nonlinear applications and experiments with low correlation to applications. This work introduces Bayesian Inverse Uncertainty Quantification (IUQ) as a method for nuclear data adjustments in this benchmark, and compares IUQ to the more traditional methods of Generalized Linear Least Squares (GLLS) and Monte Carlo Bayes (MOCABA). Posterior predictions from IUQ showed agreement with GLLS and MOCABA for linear applications. When comparing GLLS, MOCABA, and IUQ posterior predictions to computed model responses using adjusted parameters, we observe that GLLS predictions fail to replicate computed response distributions for nonlinear applications, while MOCABA shows near agreement, and IUQ uses computed model responses directly. We also discuss observations on why experiments with low correlation to applications can be informative to nuclear data adjustments and identify some properties useful in selecting experiments for inclusion in nuclear data adjustment. Performance in this benchmark indicates potential for Bayesian IUQ in nuclear data adjustments.

Figure 1: We introduce OmniMap, a general online mapping framework integrating optics, geometry, and semantics. OmniMap incrementally maintains an open-vocabulary instance-level voxel representation and a 3DGS (3D Gaussian Splatting) representation, from which color and geometric meshes are derived. OmniMap supports multi-modal rendering (RGB / depth / normal / instance), and achieves state-of-the-art performance in rendering fidelity, mesh quality, and semantic understanding. This holistic framework enables versatile support for a wide range of downstream applications. Abstract--Robotic systems demand accurate and comprehensive 3D environment perception, requiring simultaneous capture of photo-realistic appearance (optical), precise layout shape (geometric), and open-vocabulary scene understanding (semantic). Existing methods typically achieve only partial fulfillment of these requirements while exhibiting optical blurring, geometric irregularities, and semantic ambiguities. T o address these challenges, we propose OmniMap. Overall, OmniMap represents the first online mapping framework that simultaneously captures optical, geometric, and semantic scene attributes while maintaining real-time performance and model compactness. This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 92370203, 62473050, 62233002, Beijing Natural Science Foundation Undergraduate Research Program QY24180. Mengyin Fu is with the School of Automation, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China, and the School of Automation, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210018, China (e-mail: fumy@bit.edu.cn). The project page of OmniMap is available at https://omni-map.github.io/. At the implementation level, OmniMap identifies key challenges across different modalities and introduces several innovations: adaptive camera modeling for motion blur and exposure compensation, hybrid incremental representation with normal constraints, and probabilistic fusion for robust instance-level understanding. Extensive experiments show OmniMap's superior performance in rendering fidelity, geometric accuracy, and zero-shot semantic segmentation compared to state-of-the-art methods across diverse scenes. The framework's versatility is further evidenced through a variety of downstream applications, including multi-domain scene Q&A, interactive editing, perception-guided manipulation, and map-assisted navigation. The quality of a robot's 3D environmental representation, measured by its accuracy and dimensionality, fundamentally impacts the robot's task operational performance and execution capabilities.

We introduce a robust framework for learning various generalized Hamiltonian dynamics from noisy, sparse phase-space data and in an unsupervised manner based on variational Bayesian inference. Although conservative, dissipative, and port-Hamiltonian systems might share the same initial total energy of a closed system, it is challenging for a single Hamiltonian network model to capture the distinctive and varying motion dynamics and physics of a phase space, from sampled observational phase space trajectories. To address this complicated Hamiltonian manifold learning challenge, we extend sparse symplectic, random Fourier Gaussian processes learning with predictive successive numerical estimations of the Hamiltonian landscape, using a generalized form of state and conjugate momentum Hamiltonian dynamics, appropriate to different classes of conservative, dissipative and port-Hamiltonian physical systems. In addition to the kernelized evidence lower bound (ELBO) loss for data fidelity, we incorporate stability and conservation constraints as additional hyper-parameter balanced loss terms to regularize the model's multi-gradients, enforcing physics correctness for improved prediction accuracy with bounded uncertainty.

Recent advances in neural density estimation have enabled powerful simulation-based inference (SBI) methods that can flexibly approximate Bayesian inference for intractable stochastic models. Although these methods have demonstrated reliable posterior estimation when the simulator accurately represents the underlying data generative process (GDP), recent work has shown that they perform poorly in the presence of model misspecification. This poses a significant problem for their use on real-world problems, due to simulators always misrepresenting the true DGP to a certain degree. In this paper, we introduce robust variational neural posterior estimation (R VNP), a method which addresses the problem of misspecification in amortised SBI by bridging the simulation-to-reality gap using variational inference and error modelling. We test R VNP on multiple benchmark tasks, including using real data from astronomy, and show that it can recover robust posterior inference in a data-driven manner without adopting tunable hyperparameters or priors governing the misspecification.

Cryo-electron microscopy (Cryo-EM) enables high-resolution imaging of biomolecules, but structural heterogeneity remains a major challenge in 3D reconstruction. Traditional methods assume a discrete set of conformations, limiting their ability to recover continuous structural variability. In this work, we formulate cryo-EM reconstruction as a stochastic inverse problem (SIP) over probability measures, where the observed images are modeled as the push-forward of an unknown distribution over molecular structures via a random forward operator. We pose the reconstruction problem as the minimization of a variational discrepancy between observed and simulated image distributions, using statistical distances such as the KL divergence and the Maximum Mean Discrepancy. The resulting optimization is performed over the space of probability measures via a Wasserstein gradient flow, which we numerically solve using particles to represent and evolve conformational ensembles. We validate our approach using synthetic examples, including a realistic protein model, which demonstrates its ability to recover continuous distributions over structural states. We analyze the connection between our formulation and Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) approaches, which can be interpreted as instances of the discretize-then-optimize (DTO) framework. We further provide a consistency analysis, establishing conditions under which DTO methods, such as MAP estimation, converge to the solution of the underlying infinite-dimensional continuous problem. Beyond cryo-EM, the framework provides a general methodology for solving SIPs involving random forward operators.

In-context operator networks (ICON) are a class of operator learning methods based on the novel architectures of foundation models. Trained on a diverse set of datasets of initial and boundary conditions paired with corresponding solutions to ordinary and partial differential equations (ODEs and PDEs), ICON learns to map example condition-solution pairs of a given differential equation to an approximation of its solution operator. Here, we present a probabilistic framework that reveals ICON as implicitly performing Bayesian inference, where it computes the mean of the posterior predictive distribution over solution operators conditioned on the provided context, i.e., example condition-solution pairs. The formalism of random differential equations provides the probabilistic framework for describing the tasks ICON accomplishes while also providing a basis for understanding other multi-operator learning methods. This probabilistic perspective provides a basis for extending ICON to \emph{generative} settings, where one can sample from the posterior predictive distribution of solution operators. The generative formulation of ICON (GenICON) captures the underlying uncertainty in the solution operator, which enables principled uncertainty quantification in the solution predictions in operator learning.

--Nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) is a known unsupervised data-reduction method. The principle of the common cause (PCC) is a basic methodological approach in probabilistic causality, which seeks an independent mixture model for the joint probability of two dependent random variables. It turns out that these two concepts are closely related. This relationship is explored reciprocally for several datasets of gray-scale images, which are conveniently mapped into probability models. On one hand, PCC provides a predictability tool that leads to a robust estimation of the effective rank of NMF . Unlike other estimates (e.g., those based on the Bayesian Information Criteria), our estimate of the rank is stable against weak noise. We show that NMF implemented around this rank produces features (basis images) that are also stable against noise and against seeds of local optimization, thereby effectively resolving the NMF nonidentifiability problem. On the other hand, NMF provides an interesting possibility of implementing PCC in an approximate way, where larger and positively correlated joint probabilities tend to be explained better via the independent mixture model. We work out a clustering method, where data points with the same common cause are grouped into the same cluster . We also show how NMF can be employed for data denoising. Nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) was proposed and developed in data science [1]-[3].