Bayesian Inference
Semantic Visual Simultaneous Localization and Mapping: A Survey on State of the Art, Challenges, and Future Directions
Canh, Thanh Nguyen, Zhang, Haolan, HoangVan, Xiem, Chong, Nak Young
Semantic Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM) is a critical area of research within robotics and computer vision, focusing on the simultaneous localization of robotic systems and associating semantic information to construct the most accurate and complete comprehensive model of the surrounding environment. Since the first foundational work in Semantic SLAM appeared more than two decades ago, this field has received increasing attention across various scientific communities. Despite its significance, the field lacks comprehensive surveys encompassing recent advances and persistent challenges. In response, this study provides a thorough examination of the state-of-the-art of Semantic SLAM techniques, with the aim of illuminating current trends and key obstacles. Beginning with an in-depth exploration of the evolution of visual SLAM, this study outlines its strengths and unique characteristics, while also critically assessing previous survey literature. Subsequently, a unified problem formulation and evaluation of the modular solution framework is proposed, which divides the problem into discrete stages, including visual localization, semantic feature extraction, mapping, data association, and loop closure optimization. Moreover, this study investigates alternative methodologies such as deep learning and the utilization of large language models, alongside a review of relevant research about contemporary SLAM datasets. Concluding with a discussion on potential future research directions, this study serves as a comprehensive resource for researchers seeking to navigate the complex landscape of Semantic SLAM.
Diffusion Bridge Variational Inference for Deep Gaussian Processes
Xu, Jian, Zhao, Qibin, Paisley, John, Zeng, Delu
Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) enable expressive hierarchical Bayesian modeling but pose substantial challenges for posterior inference, especially over inducing variables. Denoising diffusion variational inference (DDVI) addresses this by modeling the posterior as a time-reversed diffusion from a simple Gaussian prior. However, DDVI's fixed unconditional starting distribution remains far from the complex true posterior, resulting in inefficient inference trajectories and slow convergence. In this work, we propose Diffusion Bridge Variational Inference (DBVI), a principled extension of DDVI that initiates the reverse diffusion from a learnable, data-dependent initial distribution. This initialization is parameterized via an amortized neural network and progressively adapted using gradients from the ELBO objective, reducing the posterior gap and improving sample efficiency. To enable scalable amortization, we design the network to operate on the inducing inputs, which serve as structured, low-dimensional summaries of the dataset and naturally align with the inducing variables' shape. DBVI retains the mathematical elegance of DDVI, including Girsanov-based ELBOs and reverse-time SDEs,while reinterpreting the prior via a Doob-bridged diffusion process. We derive a tractable training objective under this formulation and implement DBVI for scalable inference in large-scale DGPs. Across regression, classification, and image reconstruction tasks, DBVI consistently outperforms DDVI and other variational baselines in predictive accuracy, convergence speed, and posterior quality.
Dependent Multinomial Models Made Easy: Stick-Breaking with the Polya-gamma Augmentation
Scott Linderman, Matthew Johnson, Ryan P. Adams
Many practical modeling problems involve discrete data that are best represented as draws from multinomial or categorical distributions. For example, nucleotides in a DNA sequence, children's names in a given state and year, and text documents are all commonly modeled with multinomial distributions. In all of these cases, we expect some form of dependency between the draws: the nucleotide at one position in the DNA strand may depend on the preceding nucleotides, children's names are highly correlated from year to year, and topics in text may be correlated and dynamic. These dependencies are not naturally captured by the typical Dirichlet-multinomial formulation. Here, we leverage a logistic stick-breaking representation and recent innovations in P olya-gamma augmentation to reformulate the multinomial distribution in terms of latent variables with jointly Gaussian likelihoods, enabling us to take advantage of a host of Bayesian inference techniques for Gaussian models with minimal overhead.
Appendix A Inference in the Generative Model
A.1 Generative model We choose the deconvolutional generative model (DGM) [25] as the generative feedback in CNN-F. The graphical model of the DGM is shown in Figure 2 (middle). In this section, we provide proofs for Theorem 2.1. Without loss of generality, we consider a DGM that has the following architecture. Lemma A.1 shows that logits output from the corresponding CNN of the DGM is proportional to the inner product of generated image and input image plus Lemma A.1 to show that CNN performs Bayesian inference in the DGM.
ACE: Adapting sampling for Counterfactual Explanations
Guerrero, Margarita A., Rojas, Cristian R.
Counterfactual Explanations (CFEs) interpret machine learning models by identifying the smallest change to input features needed to change the model's prediction to a desired output. For classification tasks, CFEs determine how close a given sample is to the decision boundary of a trained classifier. Existing methods are often sample-inefficient, requiring numerous evaluations of a black-box model -- an approach that is both costly and impractical when access to the model is limited. We propose Adaptive sampling for Counterfactual Explanations (ACE), a sample-efficient algorithm combining Bayesian estimation and stochastic optimization to approximate the decision boundary with fewer queries. By prioritizing informative points, ACE minimizes evaluations while generating accurate and feasible CFEs. Extensive empirical results show that ACE achieves superior evaluation efficiency compared to state-of-the-art methods, while maintaining effectiveness in identifying minimal and actionable changes.
Staged Event Trees for Transparent Treatment Effect Estimation
Varando, Gherardo, Leonelli, Manuele, Cerdà-Bautista, Jordi, Sitokonstantinou, Vasileios, Camps-Valls, Gustau
Average and conditional treatment effects are fundamental causal quantities used to evaluate the effectiveness of treatments in various critical applications, including clinical settings and policy-making. Beyond the gold-standard estimators from randomized trials, numerous methods have been proposed to estimate treatment effects using observational data. In this paper, we provide a novel characterization of widely used causal inference techniques within the framework of staged event trees, demonstrating their capacity to enhance treatment effect estimation. These models offer a distinct advantage due to their interpretability, making them particularly valuable for practical applications. We implement classical estimators within the framework of staged event trees and illustrate their capabilities through both simulation studies and real-world applications. Furthermore, we showcase how staged event trees explicitly and visually describe when standard causal assumptions, such as positivity, hold, further enhancing their practical utility.