Explicit noise-level conditioning is widely regarded as essential for the effective operation of Graph Diffusion Models (GDMs). In this work, we challenge this assumption by investigating whether denoisers can implicitly infer noise levels directly from corrupted graph structures, potentially eliminating the need for explicit noise conditioning. To this end, we develop a theoretical framework centered on Bernoulli edge-flip corruptions and extend it to encompass more complex scenarios involving coupled structure-attribute noise. Extensive empirical evaluations on both synthetic and real-world graph datasets, using models such as GDSS and DiGress, provide strong support for our theoretical findings. Notably, unconditional GDMs achieve performance comparable or superior to their conditioned counterparts, while also offering reductions in parameters (4 6%) and computation time (8 10%). Our results suggest that the high-dimensional nature of graph data itself often encodes sufficient information for the denoising process, opening avenues for simpler, more efficient GDM architectures.

It is difficult to evaluate machine learning classifiers without large labeled datasets, which are often unavailable. In contrast, unlabeled data is plentiful, but not easily used for evaluation. Here, we introduce Semi-Supervised Model Evaluation (SSME), a method that uses both labeled and unlabeled data to evaluate machine learning classifiers. The key idea is to estimate the joint distribution of ground truth labels and classifier scores using a semi-supervised mixture model. The semisupervised mixture model allows SSME to learn from three sources of information: unlabeled data, multiple classifiers, and probabilistic classifier scores. Once fit, the mixture model enables estimation of any metric that is a function of classifier scores and ground truth labels (e.g., accuracy or AUC). We derive theoretical bounds on the error of these estimates, showing that estimation error decreases with the number of classifiers and the amount of unlabeled data. We present experiments in four domains where obtaining large labeled datasets is often impractical: healthcare, content moderation, molecular property prediction, and text classification. Our results demonstrate that SSME estimates performance more accurately than do competing methods, reducing error by 5.1 relative to using labeled data alone and 2.4 relative to the next best method.

Many domain experts do not have the time or expertise to write formal Bayesian models. This paper takes an informal problem description as input, and combines a large language model and a probabilistic programming language to define a joint distribution over formal models, latent variables, and data. A posterior over latent variables follows by conditioning on observed data and integrating over formal models. This presents a challenging inference problem. We suggest an inference recipe that amounts to generating many formal models from the large language model, performing approximate inference on each, and then doing a weighted average. This is justified and analyzed as a combination of self-normalized importance sampling, MCMC, and importance-weighted variational inference. Experimentally, this produces sensible predictions from only data and an informal problem description, without the need to specify a formal model.

Solving and learning partial differential equations (PDEs) lies at the core of physicsinformed machine learning. Traditional numerical methods, such as finite difference and finite element approaches, are rooted in domain-specific techniques and often lack scalability. Recent advances have introduced neural networks and Gaussian processes (GPs) as flexible tools for automating PDE solving and incorporating physical knowledge into learning frameworks. While GPs offer tractable predictive distributions and a principled probabilistic foundation, they may be suboptimal in capturing complex behaviors such as sharp transitions or non-smooth dynamics. To address this limitation, we propose the use of the q-exponential process (Q-EP), a recently developed generalization of GPs designed to better handle data with abrupt changes and to more accurately model derivative information. We advocate for Q-EP as a superior alternative to GPs in solving PDEs and associated inverse problems. Leveraging sparse variational inference, our method enables principled uncertainty quantification - a capability not naturally afforded by neural network-based approaches. Through a series of experiments, including the Eikonal equation, Burgers' equation, and an inverse Darcy flow problem, we demonstrate that the variational Q-EP method consistently yields more accurate solutions while providing meaningful uncertainty estimates.

We propose a framework grounded in gradient flow theory and informed by geometric structure that provides multiple diverse solutions for a given task, ensuring collaborative results that enhance performance and adaptability across different tasks. This framework enables flexibility, allowing for efficient task-specific fine-tuning while preserving the knowledge of the pre-trained foundation models. Extensive experiments across transfer learning, few-shot learning, and domain generalization show that our proposed approach consistently outperforms existing Bayesian methods, delivering strong performance with affordable computational overhead and offering a practical solution by updating only a small subset of parameters. The code for our method is at https://github.com/anh-ntv/GAC-MSO

Modern data marketplaces and data sharing consortia increasingly rely on incentive mechanisms to encourage agents to contribute data. However, schemes that reward agents based on the quantity of submitted data are vulnerable to manipulation, as agents may submit fabricated or low-quality data to inflate their rewards. Prior work has proposed comparing each agent's data against others' to promote honesty: when others contribute genuine data, the best way to minimize discrepancy is to do the same. Yet prior implementations of this idea rely on very strong assumptions about the data distribution (e.g.

This paper investigates the connections between rectified flows, flow matching, and optimal transport. Flow matching is a recent approach to learning generative models by estimating velocity fields that guide transformations from a source to a target distribution. Rectified flow matching aims to straighten the learned transport paths, yielding more direct flows between distributions. Our first contribution is a set of invariance properties of rectified flows and explicit velocity fields. In addition, we also provide explicit constructions and analysis in the Gaussian (not necessarily independent) and Gaussian mixture settings and study the relation to optimal transport. Our second contribution addresses recent claims suggesting that rectified flows, when constrained such that the learned velocity field is a gradient, can yield (asymptotically) solutions to optimal transport problems. We study the existence of solutions for this problem and demonstrate that they only relate to optimal transport under assumptions that are significantly stronger than those previously acknowledged. In particular, we present several counterexamples that invalidate earlier equivalence results in the literature, and we argue that enforcing a gradient constraint on rectified flows is, in general, not a reliable method for computing optimal transport maps.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across numerous tasks, yet principled explanations for their underlying mechanisms and several phenomena, such as scaling laws, hallucinations, and related behaviors, remain elusive. In this work, we revisit the classical relationship between compression and prediction, grounded in Kolmogorov complexity and Shannon information theory, to provide deeper insights into LLM behaviors. By leveraging the Kolmogorov Structure Function and interpreting LLM compression as a two-part coding process, we offer a detailed view of how LLMs acquire and store information across increasing model and data scales - from pervasive syntactic patterns to progressively rarer knowledge elements. Motivated by this theoretical perspective and natural assumptions inspired by Heap's and Zipf's laws, we introduce a simplified yet representative hierarchical data-generation framework called the Syntax-Knowledge model. Under the Bayesian setting, we show that prediction and compression within this model naturally lead to diverse learning and scaling behaviors of LLMs. In particular, our theoretical analysis offers intuitive and principled explanations for both data and model scaling laws, the dynamics of knowledge acquisition during training and fine-tuning, factual knowledge hallucinations in LLMs.

Efficient online decision-making in contextual bandits is challenging, as methods without informative priors often suffer from computational or statistical inefficiencies. In this work, we leverage pre-trained diffusion models as expressive priors to capture complex action dependencies and develop a practical algorithm that efficiently approximates posteriors under such priors, enabling both fast updates and sampling. Empirical results demonstrate the effectiveness and versatility of our approach across diverse contextual bandit settings.

Directed acyclic graph (DAG) learning is a central task in structure discovery and causal inference. Although the field has witnessed remarkable advances over the past few years, it remains statistically and computationally challenging to learn a single (point estimate) DAG from data, let alone provide uncertainty quantification. We address the difficult task of quantifying graph uncertainty by developing a Bayesian variational inference framework based on novel, provably valid distributions that have support directly on the space of sparse DAGs. These distributions, which we use to define our prior and variational posterior, are induced by a projection operation that maps an arbitrary continuous distribution onto the space of sparse weighted acyclic adjacency matrices. While this projection is combinatorial, it can be solved efficiently using recent continuous reformulations of acyclicity constraints. We empirically demonstrate that our method, ProDAG, can outperform state-of-the-art alternatives in both accuracy and uncertainty quantification.