Autonomous robots are increasingly deployed for information-gathering tasks in environments that vary across space and time. Planning informative and safe trajectories in such settings is challenging because information decays when regions are not revisited. Most existing planners model information as static or uniformly decaying, ignoring environments where the decay rate varies spatially; those that model non-uniform decay often overlook how it evolves along the robot's motion, and almost all treat safety as a soft penalty. In this paper, we address these challenges. We model uncertainty in the environment using clarity, a normalized representation of differential entropy from our earlier work that captures how information improves through new measurements and decays over time when regions are not revisited. Building on this, we present Stein V ariational Clarity-A ware Informative Planning, a framework that embeds clarity dynamics within trajectory optimization and enforces safety through a low-level filtering mechanism based on our earlier gatekeeper framework for safety verification. The planner performs Bayesian inference-based learning via Stein variational inference, refining a distribution over informative trajectories while filtering each nominal Stein informative trajectory to ensure safety. Hardware experiments and simulations across environments with varying decay rates and obstacles demonstrate consistent safety and reduced information deficits.

Species distribution models (SDMs), which aim to predict species occurrence based on environmental variables, are widely used to monitor and respond to biodiversity change. Recent deep learning advances for SDMs have been shown to perform well on complex and heterogeneous datasets, but their effectiveness remains limited by spatial biases in the data. In this paper, we revisit deep SDMs from a Bayesian perspective and introduce BATIS, a novel and practical framework wherein prior predictions are updated iteratively using limited observational data. Models must appropriately capture both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty to effectively combine fine-grained local insights with broader ecological patterns. We benchmark an extensive set of uncertainty quantification approaches on a novel dataset including citizen science observations from the eBird platform. Our empirical study shows how Bayesian deep learning approaches can greatly improve the reliability of SDMs in data-scarce locations, which can contribute to ecological understanding and conservation efforts.

Structured variational inference constitutes a core methodology in modern statistical applications. Unlike mean-field variational inference, the approximate posterior is assumed to have interdependent structure. We consider the natural setting of star-structured variational inference, where a root variable impacts all the other ones. We prove the first results for existence, uniqueness, and self-consistency of the variational approximation. In turn, we derive quantitative approximation error bounds for the variational approximation to the posterior, extending prior work from the mean-field setting to the star-structured setting. We also develop a gradient-based algorithm with provable guarantees for computing the variational approximation using ideas from optimal transport theory. We explore the implications of our results for Gaussian measures and hierarchical Bayesian models, including generalized linear models with location family priors and spike-and-slab priors with one-dimensional debiasing. As a by-product of our analysis, we develop new stability results for star-separable transport maps which might be of independent interest.

Establishing a communication system is hard because the intended meaning of a signal is unknown to its receiver when first produced, and the signaller also has no idea how that signal will be interpreted. Most theoretical accounts of the emergence of communication systems rely on feedback to reinforce behaviours that have led to successful communication in the past. However, providing such feedback requires already being able to communicate the meaning that was intended or interpreted. Therefore these accounts cannot explain how communication can be bootstrapped from non-communicative behaviours. Here we present a model that shows how a communication system, capable of expressing an unbounded number of meanings, can emerge as a result of individual behavioural differences in a large population without any pre-existing means to determine communicative success. The two key cognitive capabilities responsible for this outcome are behaving predictably in a given situation, and an alignment of psychological states ahead of signal production that derives from shared intentionality. Since both capabilities can exist independently of communication, our results are compatible with theories in which large flexible socially-learned communication systems like language are the product of a general but well-developed capacity for social cognition.

The bias-variance decomposition is a central result in statistics and machine learning, but is typically presented only for the squared error. We present a generalization of the bias-variance decomposition where the prediction error is a Bregman divergence, which is relevant to maximum likelihood estimation with exponential families. While the result is already known, there was not previously a clear, standalone derivation, so we provide one for pedagogical purposes. A version of this note previously appeared on the author's personal website without context. Here we provide additional discussion and references to the relevant prior literature.

Machine learning (ML) classification models are increasingly being used in a wide range of applications where it is important that predictions are accompanied by uncertainties, including in climate and earth observation, medical diagnosis and bioaerosol monitoring. The output of an ML classification model is a type of categorical variable known as a nominal property in the International Vocabulary of Metrology (VIM). However, concepts related to uncertainty evaluation for nominal properties are not defined in the VIM, nor is such evaluation addressed by the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM). In this paper we propose a metrological conceptual uncertainty evaluation framework for nominal properties. This framework is based on probability mass functions and summary statistics thereof, and it is applicable to ML classification. We also illustrate its use in the context of two applications that exemplify the issues and have significant societal impact, namely, climate and earth observation and medical diagnosis. Our framework would enable an extension of the GUM to uncertainty for nominal properties, which would make both applicable to ML classification models.

Motion prediction, recently popularized under the term world models, refers to anticipating the future states of agents or the future evolution of a scene, which is rooted in human cognition to bridge perception and decision-making, enabling us to anticipate, adapt, and act within an ever-changing world. It lies at the core of intelligent autonomous systems, such as robotics and self-driving cars, to safely operate in dynamic and human-robot-mixed environments, and also informs broader time-series challenges. With advances in methods, representations, and datasets, the field has seen rapid progress, reflected in rapidly updated benchmark performance. However, when state-of-the-art methods are deployed in the real world, they are often found to struggle to generalize to open-world settings and fall short of deployment standards. This reveals a gap between reality and benchmarks, which are often idealized or ill-posed, and fail to capture real-world complexity. To address the pressing need for problem settings that better reflect real-world challenges and guide future research, this paper focuses on revisiting the generalization and applicability of motion prediction models, with an emphasis on robotics, autonomous driving, and human motion applications. We first provide a comprehensive taxonomy of motion prediction methods, covering representations, modelling methods, application domains, and evaluation protocols. We then revisit two fundamental problems: 1) how to push motion prediction models to be deployable to realistic deployment standards, where motion prediction does not act in a vacuum, but functions as one module of closed-loop autonomy stacks - it takes input from the localization and perception, and informs downstream planning and control.

Contextual predictability shapes both the form and choice of words in online language production. The effects of the predictability of a word given its previous context are generally well-understood in both production and comprehension, but studies of naturalistic production have also revealed a poorly-understood backward predictability effect of a word given its future context, which may be related to future planning. Here, in two studies of naturalistic speech corpora, we investigate backward predictability effects using improved measures and more powerful language models, introducing a new principled and conceptually motivated information-theoretic predictability measure that integrates predictability from both the future and the past context. Our first study revisits classic predictability effects on word duration. Our second study investigates substitution errors within a generative framework that independently models the effects of lexical, contextual, and communicative factors on word choice, while predicting the actual words that surface as speech errors. We find that our proposed conceptually-motivated alternative to backward predictability yields qualitatively similar effects across both studies. Through a fine-grained analysis of substitution errors, we further show that different kinds of errors are suggestive of how speakers prioritize form, meaning, and context-based information during lexical planning. Together, these findings illuminate the functional roles of past and future context in how speakers encode and choose words, offering a bridge between contextual predictability effects and the mechanisms of sentence planning.

Urban air pollution is a major health crisis causing millions of premature deaths annually, underscoring the urgent need for accurate and scalable monitoring of air quality (AQ). While low-cost sensors (LCS) offer a scalable alternative to expensive reference-grade stations, their readings are affected by drift, calibration errors, and environmental interference. To address these challenges, we introduce Veli (Reference-free Variational Estimation via Latent Inference), an unsupervised Bayesian model that leverages variational inference to correct LCS readings without requiring co-location with reference stations, eliminating a major deployment barrier. Specifically, Veli constructs a disentangled representation of the LCS readings, effectively separating the true pollutant reading from the sensor noise. To build our model and address the lack of standardized benchmarks in AQ monitoring, we also introduce the Air Quality Sensor Data Repository (AQ-SDR). AQ-SDR is the largest AQ sensor benchmark to date, with readings from 23,737 LCS and reference stations across multiple regions. Veli demonstrates strong generalization across both in-distribution and out-of-distribution settings, effectively handling sensor drift and erratic sensor behavior. Code for model and dataset will be made public when this paper is published.

The cost of error in many high-stakes settings is asymmetric: misdiagnosing pneumonia when absent is an inconvenience, but failing to detect it when present can be life-threatening. Because of this, artificial intelligence (AI) models used to assist such decisions are frequently trained with asymmetric loss functions that incorporate human decision-makers' trade-offs between false positives and false negatives. In two focal applications, we show that this standard alignment practice can backfire. In both cases, it would be better to train the machine learning model with a loss function that ignores the human's objective and then adjust predictions ex post according to that objective. We rationalize this result using an economic model of incentive design with endogenous information acquisition. The key insight from our theoretical framework is that machine classifiers perform not one but two incentivized tasks: choosing how to classify and learning how to classify. We show that while the adjustments engineers use correctly incentivize choosing, they can simultaneously reduce the incentives to learn. Our formal treatment of the problem reveals that methods embraced for their intuitive appeal can in fact misalign human and machine objectives in predictable ways.