Luhmann (1984) defined society as a communication system which is structurally coupled to, but not an aggregate of, human action systems. The communication system is then considered as self-organizing ("autopoietic"), as are human actors. Communication systems can be studied by using Shannon's (1948) mathematical theory of communication. The update of a network by action at one of the local nodes is then a well-known problem in artificial intelligence (Pearl 1988). By combining these various theories, a general algorithm for probabilistic structure/action contingency can be derived. The consequences of this contingency for each system, its consequences for their further histories, and the stabilization on each side by counterbalancing mechanisms are discussed, in both mathematical and theoretical terms. An empirical example is elaborated.

One of the objectives of designing feature selection learning algorithms is to obtain classifiers that depend on a small number of attributes and have verifiable future performance guarantees. There are few, if any, approaches that successfully address the two goals simultaneously. Performance guarantees become crucial for tasks such as microarray data analysis due to very small sample sizes resulting in limited empirical evaluation. To the best of our knowledge, such algorithms that give theoretical bounds on the future performance have not been proposed so far in the context of the classification of gene expression data. In this work, we investigate the premise of learning a conjunction (or disjunction) of decision stumps in Occam's Razor, Sample Compression, and PAC-Bayes learning settings for identifying a small subset of attributes that can be used to perform reliable classification tasks. We apply the proposed approaches for gene identification from DNA microarray data and compare our results to those of well known successful approaches proposed for the task. We show that our algorithm not only finds hypotheses with much smaller number of genes while giving competitive classification accuracy but also have tight risk guarantees on future performance unlike other approaches. The proposed approaches are general and extensible in terms of both designing novel algorithms and application to other domains.

An interesting class of planning domains, including planning for daily activities of Mars rovers, involves achievement of goals with time constraints and concurrent actions with probabilistic durations. Current probabilistic approaches, which rely on a discrete time model, introduce a blow up in the search state-space when the two factors of action concurrency and action duration uncertainty are combined. Simulation-based and sampling probabilistic planning approaches would cope with this state explosion by avoiding storing all the explored states in memory, but they remain approximate solution approaches. In this paper, we present an alternative approach relying on a continuous time model which avoids the state explosion caused by time stamping in the presence of action concurrency and action duration uncertainty. Time is represented as a continuous random variable. The dependency between state time variables is conveyed by a Bayesian network, which is dynamically generated by a state-based forward-chaining search based on the action descriptions. A generated plan is characterized by a probability of satisfying a goal. The evaluation of this probability is done by making a query the Bayesian network.

Pattern recognition is a central topic in Learning Theory with numerous applications such as voice and text recognition, image analysis, computer diagnosis. The statistical set-up in classification is the following: we are given an i.i.d. training set $(X_{1},Y_{1}),... (X_{n},Y_{n})$ where $X_{i}$ represents a feature and $Y_{i}\in \{0,1\}$ is a label attached to that feature. The underlying joint distribution of $(X,Y)$ is unknown, but we can learn about it from the training set and we aim at devising low error classifiers $f:X\to Y$ used to predict the label of new incoming features. Here we solve a quantum analogue of this problem, namely the classification of two arbitrary unknown qubit states. Given a number of `training' copies from each of the states, we would like to `learn' about them by performing a measurement on the training set. The outcome is then used to design mesurements for the classification of future systems with unknown labels. We find the asymptotically optimal classification strategy and show that typically, it performs strictly better than a plug-in strategy based on state estimation. The figure of merit is the excess risk which is the difference between the probability of error and the probability of error of the optimal measurement when the states are known, that is the Helstrom measurement. We show that the excess risk has rate $n^{-1}$ and compute the exact constant of the rate.

We consider the problem of estimating the topology of spatial interactions in a discrete state, discrete time spatio-temporal graphical model where the interactions affect the temporal evolution of each agent in a network. Among other models, the susceptible, infected, recovered ($SIR$) model for interaction events fall into this framework. We pose the problem as a structure learning problem and solve it using an $\ell_1$-penalized likelihood convex program. We evaluate the solution on a simulated spread of infectious over a complex network. Our topology estimates outperform those of a standard spatial Markov random field graphical model selection using $\ell_1$-regularized logistic regression.

This paper proposes a method to construct an adaptive agent that is universal with respect to a given class of experts, where each expert is an agent that has been designed specifically for a particular environment. This adaptive control problem is formalized as the problem of minimizing the relative entropy of the adaptive agent from the expert that is most suitable for the unknown environment. If the agent is a passive observer, then the optimal solution is the well-known Bayesian predictor. However, if the agent is active, then its past actions need to be treated as causal interventions on the I/O stream rather than normal probability conditions. Here it is shown that the solution to this new variational problem is given by a stochastic controller called the Bayesian control rule, which implements adaptive behavior as a mixture of experts. Furthermore, it is shown that under mild assumptions, the Bayesian control rule converges to the control law of the most suitable expert.

A key challenge for policymakers in many developing countries is to decide which intervention or collection of interventions works best to improve learning outcomes in their schools. Our aim is to develop a causal model that explains student learning outcomes in terms of observable characteristics as well as conditions and processes difficult to observe directly. We start with a theoretical model based on the results of previous research, direct experience and experts’ knowledge in the field. This model is then refined through application of supervised learning methods to available data sets. Once calibrated with local data in a country, the model estimates the probability that a given intervention would affect learning outcomes.

We have adapted an expert system of medical diagnosis for use by low to mid-level health workers in remote and rural locations. Key to the successful deployment of this expert system is the rapid adaptation of the database and clinical interface for use in specific regions and by varying user skill.

The paper investigates parameterized approximate message-passing schemes that are based on bounded inference and are inspired by Pearls belief propagation algorithm (BP). We start with the bounded inference mini-clustering algorithm and then move to the iterative scheme called Iterative Join-Graph Propagation (IJGP), that combines both iteration and bounded inference. Algorithm IJGP belongs to the class of Generalized Belief Propagation algorithms, a framework that allowed connections with approximate algorithms from statistical physics and is shown empirically to surpass the performance of mini-clustering and belief propagation, as well as a number of other state-of-the-art algorithms on several classes of networks. We also provide insight into the accuracy of iterative BP and IJGP by relating these algorithms to well known classes of constraint propagation schemes.

In Newcomb's paradox you choose to receive either the contents of a particular closed box, or the contents of both that closed box and another one. Before you choose, a prediction algorithm deduces your choice, and fills the two boxes based on that deduction. Newcomb's paradox is that game theory appears to provide two conflicting recommendations for what choice you should make in this scenario. We analyze Newcomb's paradox using a recent extension of game theory in which the players set conditional probability distributions in a Bayes net. We show that the two game theory recommendations in Newcomb's scenario have different presumptions for what Bayes net relates your choice and the algorithm's prediction. We resolve the paradox by proving that these two Bayes nets are incompatible. We also show that the accuracy of the algorithm's prediction, the focus of much previous work, is irrelevant. In addition we show that Newcomb's scenario only provides a contradiction between game theory's expected utility and dominance principles if one is sloppy in specifying the underlying Bayes net. We also show that Newcomb's paradox is time-reversal invariant; both the paradox and its resolution are unchanged if the algorithm makes its `prediction' after you make your choice rather than before.