An increasing number of experimental studies indicate that perception encodes a posterior probability distribution over possible causes of sensory stimuli, which is used to act close to optimally in the environment. One outstanding difficulty with this hypothesis is that the exact posterior will in general be too complex to be represented directly, and thus neurons will have to represent an approximation of this distribution. Two influential proposals of efficient posterior representation by neural populations are: 1) neural activity represents samples of the underlying distribution, or 2) they represent a parametric representation of a variational approximation of the posterior. We show that these approaches can be combined for an inference scheme that retains the advantages of both: it is able to represent multiple modes and arbitrary correlations, a feature of sampling methods, and it reduces the represented space to regions of high probability mass, a strength of variational approximations. Neurally, the combined method can be interpreted as a feed-forward preselection of the relevant state space, followed by a neural dynamics implementation of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to approximate the posterior over the relevant states. We demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of this approach on a sparse coding model. In numerical experiments on artificial data and image patches, we compare the performance of the algorithms to that of exact EM, variational state space selection alone, MCMC alone, and the combined select and sample approach. The select and sample approach integrates the advantages of the sampling and variational approximations, and forms a robust, neurally plausible, and very efficient model of processing and learning in cortical networks. For sparse coding we show applications easily exceeding a thousand observed and a thousand hidden dimensions.

Latent variable models are frequently used to identify structure in dichotomous network data, in part because they give rise to a Bernoulli product likelihood that is both well understood and consistent with the notion of exchangeable random graphs. In this article we propose conservative confidence sets that hold with respect to these underlying Bernoulli parameters as a function of any given partition of network nodes, enabling us to assess estimates of \emph{residual} network structure, that is, structure that cannot be explained by known covariates and thus cannot be easily verified by manual inspection. We demonstrate the proposed methodology by analyzing student friendship networks from the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health that include race, gender, and school year as covariates. We employ a stochastic expectation-maximization algorithm to fit a logistic regression model that includes these explanatory variables as well as a latent stochastic blockmodel component and additional node-specific effects. Although maximum-likelihood estimates do not appear consistent in this context, we are able to evaluate confidence sets as a function of different blockmodel partitions, which enables us to qualitatively assess the significance of estimated residual network structure relative to a baseline, which models covariates but lacks block structure.

The difficulty in inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) arises in choosing the best reward function since there are typically an infinite number of reward functions that yield the given behaviour data as optimal. Using a Bayesian framework, we address this challenge by using the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation for the reward function, and show that most of the previous IRL algorithms can be modeled into our framework. We also present a gradient method for the MAP estimation based on the (sub)differentiability of the posterior distribution. We show the effectiveness of our approach by comparing the performance of the proposed method to those of the previous algorithms.

How do people determine which elements of a set are most representative of that set? We extend an existing Bayesian measure of representativeness, which indicates the representativeness of a sample from a distribution, to define a measure of the representativeness of an item to a set. We show that this measure is formally related to a machine learning method known as Bayesian Sets. Building on this connection, we derive an analytic expression for the representativeness of objects described by a sparse vector of binary features. We then apply this measure to a large database of images, using it to determine which images are the most representative members of different sets. Comparing the resulting predictions to human judgments of representativeness provides a test of this measure with naturalistic stimuli, and illustrates how databases that are more commonly used in computer vision and machine learning can be used to evaluate psychological theories.

We present an asymptotic analysis of Viterbi Training (VT) and contrast it with a more conventional Maximum Likelihood (ML) approach to parameter estimation in Hidden Markov Models. While ML estimator works by (locally) maximizing the likelihood of the observed data, VT seeks to maximize the probability of the most likely hidden state sequence. We develop an analytical framework based on a generating function formalism and illustrate it on an exactly solvable model of HMM with one unambiguous symbol. For this particular model the ML objective function is continuously degenerate. VT objective, in contrast, is shown to have only finite degeneracy. Furthermore, VT converges faster and results in sparser (simpler) models, thus realizing an automatic Occam's razor for HMM learning. For more general scenario VT can be worse compared to ML but still capable of correctly recovering most of the parameters.

We consider the problem of Bayesian inference for continuous time multi-stable stochastic systems which can change both their diffusion and drift parameters at discrete times. We propose exact inference and sampling methodologies for two specific cases where the discontinuous dynamics is given by a Poisson process and a two-state Markovian switch. We test the methodology on simulated data, and apply it to two real data sets in finance and systems biology. Our experimental results show that the approach leads to valid inferences and non-trivial insights.

For many real-world applications, we often need to select correlated variables---such as genetic variations and imaging features associated with Alzheimer's disease---in a high dimensional space. The correlation between variables presents a challenge to classical variable selection methods. To address this challenge, the elastic net has been developed and successfully applied to many applications. Despite its great success, the elastic net does not exploit the correlation information embedded in the data to select correlated variables. To overcome this limitation, we present a novel hybrid model, EigenNet, that uses the eigenstructures of data to guide variable selection. Specifically, it integrates a sparse conditional classification model with a generative model capturing variable correlations in a principled Bayesian framework. We develop an efficient active-set algorithm to estimate the model via evidence maximization. Experiments on synthetic data and imaging genetics data demonstrated the superior predictive performance of the EigenNet over the lasso, the elastic net, and the automatic relevance determination.

In this paper, we derive a method to refine a Bayes network diagnostic model by exploiting constraints implied by expert decisions on test ordering. At each step, the expert executes an evidence gathering test, which suggests the test's relative diagnostic value. We demonstrate that consistency with an expert's test selection leads to non-convex constraints on the model parameters. We incorporate these constraints by augmenting the network with nodes that represent the constraint likelihoods. Gibbs sampling, stochastic hill climbing and greedy search algorithms are proposed to find a MAP estimate that takes into account test ordering constraints and any data available. We demonstrate our approach on diagnostic sessions from a manufacturing scenario.

Synaptic plasticity underlies learning and is thus central for development, memory, and recovery from injury. However, it is often difficult to detect changes in synaptic strength in vivo, since intracellular recordings are experimentally challenging. Here we present two methods aimed at inferring changes in the coupling between pairs of neurons from extracellularly recorded spike trains. First, using a generalized bilinear model with Poisson output we estimate time-varying coupling assuming that all changes are spike-timing-dependent. This approach allows model-based estimation of STDP modification functions from pairs of spike trains. Then, using recursive point-process adaptive filtering methods we estimate more general variation in coupling strength over time. Using simulations of neurons undergoing spike-timing dependent modification, we show that the true modification function can be recovered. Using multi-electrode data from motor cortex we then illustrate the use of this technique on in vivo data.

Many functional descriptions of spiking neurons assume a cascade structure where inputs are passed through an initial linear filtering stage that produces a low-dimensional signal that drives subsequent nonlinear stages. This paper presents a novel and systematic parameter estimation procedure for such models and applies the method to two neural estimation problems: (i) compressed-sensing based neural mapping from multi-neuron excitation, and (ii) estimation of neural receptive yields in sensory neurons. The proposed estimation algorithm models the neurons via a graphical model and then estimates the parameters in the model using a recently-developed generalized approximate message passing (GAMP) method. The GAMP method is based on Gaussian approximations of loopy belief propagation. In the neural connectivity problem, the GAMP-based method is shown to be computational efficient, provides a more exact modeling of the sparsity, can incorporate nonlinearities in the output and significantly outperforms previous compressed-sensing methods. For the receptive field estimation, the GAMP method can also exploit inherent structured sparsity in the linear weights. The method is validated on estimation of linear nonlinear Poisson (LNP) cascade models for receptive fields of salamander retinal ganglion cells.