Score matching estimators have garnered significant attention in recent years because they eliminate the need to compute normalizing constants, thereby mitigating the computational challenges associated with maximum likelihood estimation (MLE).While several studies have proposed score matching estimators for point processes, this work highlights the limitations of these existing methods, which stem primarily from the lack of a mathematically rigorous analysis of how score matching behaves on finite point processes -- special random configurations on bounded spaces where many of the usual assumptions and properties of score matching no longer hold. To this end, we develop a formal framework for score matching on finite point processes via Janossy measures and, within this framework, introduce an (autoregressive) weighted score-matching estimator, whose statistical properties we analyze in classical parametric settings. For general nonparametric (e.g., deep) point process models, we show that score matching alone does not uniquely identify the ground-truth distribution due to subtle normalization issues, and we propose a simple survival-classification augmentation that yields a complete, integration-free training objective for any intensity-based point process model for spatio-temporal case. Experiments on synthetic and real-world temporal and spatio-temporal datasets, demonstrate that our method accurately recovers intensities and achieves performance comparable to MLE with better efficiency.

This paper proposes an Interactive Inference Behavior Tree (IIBT) framework that integrates behavior trees (BTs) with active inference under the free energy principle for distributed multi-robot decision-making. The proposed IIBT node extends conventional BTs with probabilistic reasoning, enabling online joint planning and execution across multiple robots. It remains fully compatible with standard BT architectures, allowing seamless integration into existing multi-robot control systems. Within this framework, multi-robot cooperation is formulated as a free-energy minimization process, where each robot dynamically updates its preference matrix based on perceptual inputs and peer intentions, thereby achieving adaptive coordination in partially observable and dynamic environments. The proposed approach is validated through both simulation and real-world experiments, including a multi-robot maze navigation and a collaborative manipulation task, compared against traditional BTs(https://youtu.be/KX_oT3IDTf4). Experimental results demonstrate that the IIBT framework reduces BT node complexity by over 70%, while maintaining robust, interpretable, and adaptive cooperative behavior under environmental uncertainty.

Gaussian process regression (GPR) is a popular nonparametric Bayesian method that provides predictive uncertainty estimates and is widely used in safety-critical applications. While prior research has introduced various uncertainty bounds, most existing approaches require access to specific input features, and rely on posterior mean and variance estimates or the tuning of hyperparameters. These limitations hinder robustness and fail to capture the model's global behavior in expectation. To address these limitations, we propose a chaining-based framework for estimating upper and lower bounds on the expected extreme values over unseen data, without requiring access to specific input features. We provide kernel-specific refinements for commonly used kernels such as RBF and Matérn, in which our bounds are tighter than generic constructions. We further improve numerical tightness by avoiding analytical relaxations. In addition to global estimation, we also develop a novel method for local uncertainty quantification at specified inputs. This approach leverages chaining geometry through partition diameters, adapting to local structures without relying on posterior variance scaling. Our experimental results validate the theoretical findings and demonstrate that our method outperforms existing approaches on both synthetic and real-world datasets.

The LogSumExp function, also known as the free energy, plays a central role in many important optimization problems, including entropy-regularized optimal transport and distributionally robust optimization (DRO). It is also the dual to the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, which is widely used in machine learning. In practice, when the number of exponential terms inside the logarithm is large or infinite, optimization becomes challenging since computing the gradient requires differentiating every term. Previous approaches that replace the full sum with a small batch introduce significant bias. We propose a novel approximation to LogSumExp that can be efficiently optimized using stochastic gradient methods. This approximation is rooted in a sound modification of the KL divergence in the dual, resulting in a new $f$-divergence called the safe KL divergence. The accuracy of the approximation is controlled by a tunable parameter and can be made arbitrarily small. Like the LogSumExp, our approximation preserves convexity. Moreover, when applied to an $L$-smooth function bounded from below, the smoothness constant of the resulting objective scales linearly with $L$. Experiments in DRO and continuous optimal transport demonstrate the advantages of our approach over state-of-the-art baselines and the effective treatment of numerical issues associated with the standard LogSumExp and KL.

We introduce Sketch Tomography, an efficient procedure for quantum state tomography based on the classical shadow protocol used for quantum observable estimations. The procedure applies to the case where the ground truth quantum state is a matrix product state (MPS). The density matrix of the ground truth state admits a tensor train ansatz as a result of the MPS assumption, and we estimate the tensor components of the ansatz through a series of observable estimations, thus outputting an approximation of the density matrix. The procedure is provably convergent with a sample complexity that scales quadratically in the system size. We conduct extensive numerical experiments to show that the procedure outputs an accurate approximation to the quantum state. For observable estimation tasks involving moderately large subsystems, we show that our procedure gives rise to a more accurate estimation than the classical shadow protocol. We also show that sketch tomography is more accurate in observable estimation than quantum states trained from the maximum likelihood estimation formulation.

Agentic AI systems execute a sequence of actions, such as reasoning steps or tool calls, in response to a user prompt. To evaluate the success of their trajectories, researchers have developed verifiers, such as LLM judges and process-reward models, to score the quality of each action in an agent's trajectory. Although these heuristic scores can be informative, there are no guarantees of correctness when used to decide whether an agent will yield a successful output. Here, we introduce e-valuator, a method to convert any black-box verifier score into a decision rule with provable control of false alarm rates. We frame the problem of distinguishing successful trajectories (that is, a sequence of actions that will lead to a correct response to the user's prompt) and unsuccessful trajectories as a sequential hypothesis testing problem. E-valuator builds on tools from e-processes to develop a sequential hypothesis test that remains statistically valid at every step of an agent's trajectory, enabling online monitoring of agents over arbitrarily long sequences of actions. Empirically, we demonstrate that e-valuator provides greater statistical power and better false alarm rate control than other strategies across six datasets and three agents. We additionally show that e-valuator can be used for to quickly terminate problematic trajectories and save tokens. Together, e-valuator provides a lightweight, model-agnostic framework that converts verifier heuristics into decisions rules with statistical guarantees, enabling the deployment of more reliable agentic systems.

We introduce Density-Informed VAE (DiVAE), a lightweight, data-driven regularizer that aligns the VAE log-prior probability $\log p_Z(z)$ with a log-density estimated from data. Standard VAEs match latents to a simple prior, overlooking density structure in the data-space. DiVAE encourages the encoder to allocate posterior mass in proportion to data-space density and, when the prior is learnable, nudges the prior toward high-density regions. This is realized by adding a robust, precision-weighted penalty to the ELBO, incurring negligible computational overhead. On synthetic datasets, DiVAE (i) improves distributional alignment of latent log-densities to its ground truth counterpart, (ii) improves prior coverage, and (iii) yields better OOD uncertainty calibration. On MNIST, DiVAE improves alignment of the prior with external estimates of the density, providing better interpretability, and improves OOD detection for learnable priors.

Crowdsourcing enables scalable autonomous driving map construction, but low-cost sensor noise hinders quality from improving with data volume. We propose CSMapping, a system that produces accurate semantic maps and topological road centerlines whose quality consistently increases with more crowdsourced data. For semantic mapping, we train a latent diffusion model on HD maps (optionally conditioned on SD maps) to learn a generative prior of real-world map structure, without requiring paired crowdsourced/HD-map supervision. This prior is incorporated via constrained MAP optimization in latent space, ensuring robustness to severe noise and plausible completion in unobserved areas. Initialization uses a robust vectorized mapping module followed by diffusion inversion; optimization employs efficient Gaussian-basis reparameterization, projected gradient descent zobracket multi-start, and latent-space factor-graph for global consistency. For topological mapping, we apply confidence-weighted k-medoids clustering and kinematic refinement to trajectories, yielding smooth, human-like centerlines robust to trajectory variation. Experiments on nuScenes, Argoverse 2, and a large proprietary dataset achieve state-of-the-art semantic and topological mapping performance, with thorough ablation and scalability studies.

Active inference proposes expected free energy as an objective for planning and decision-making to adequately balance exploitative and explorative drives in learning agents. The exploitative drive, or what an agent wants to achieve, is formalised as the Kullback-Leibler divergence between a variational probability distribution, updated at each inference step, and a preference probability distribution that indicates what states or observations are more likely for the agent, hence determining the agent's goal in a certain environment. In the literature, the questions of how the preference distribution should be specified and of how a certain specification impacts inference and learning in an active inference agent have been given hardly any attention. In this work, we consider four possible ways of defining the preference distribution, either providing the agents with hard or soft goals and either involving or not goal shaping (i.e., intermediate goals). We compare the performances of four agents, each given one of the possible preference distributions, in a grid world navigation task. Our results show that goal shaping enables the best performance overall (i.e., it promotes exploitation) while sacrificing learning about the environment's transition dynamics (i.e., it hampers exploration).

Loss of lung function in cystic fibrosis (CF) occurs progressively, punctuated by acute pulmonary exacerbations (PEx) in which abrupt declines in lung function are not fully recovered. A key component of CF management over the past half century has been the treatment of PEx to slow lung function decline. This has been credited with improvements in survival for people with CF (PwCF), but there is no consensus on the optimal approach to PEx management. BEAT-CF (Bayesian evidence-adaptive treatment of CF) was established to build an evidence-informed knowledge base for CF management. The BEAT-CF causal model is a directed acyclic graph (DAG) and Bayesian network (BN) for PEx that aims to inform the design and analysis of clinical trials comparing the effectiveness of alternative approaches to PEx management. The causal model describes relationships between background risk factors, treatments, and pathogen colonisation of the airways that affect the outcome of an individual PEx episode. The key factors, outcomes, and causal relationships were elicited from CF clinical experts and together represent current expert understanding of the pathophysiology of a PEx episode, guiding the design of data collection and studies and enabling causal inference. Here, we present the DAG that documents this understanding, along with the processes used in its development, providing transparency around our trial design and study processes, as well as a reusable framework for others.