We consider the problem of estimating the expected value of information (the knowledge gradient) for Bayesian learning problems where the belief model is nonlinear in the parameters. Our goal is to maximize some metric, while simultaneously learning the unknown parameters of the nonlinear belief model, by guiding a sequential experimentation process which is expensive. We overcome the problem of computing the expected value of an experiment, which is computationally intractable, by using a sampled approximation, which helps to guide experiments but does not provide an accurate estimate of the unknown parameters. We then introduce a resampling process which allows the sampled model to adapt to new information, exploiting past experiments. We show theoretically that the method converges asymptotically to the true parameters, while simultaneously maximizing our metric. We show empirically that the process exhibits rapid convergence, yielding good results with a very small number of experiments.

We study, to the best of our knowledge, the first Bayesian algorithm for unimodal Multi-Armed Bandit (MAB) problems with graph structure. In this setting, each arm corresponds to a node of a graph and each edge provides a relationship, unknown to the learner, between two nodes in terms of expected reward. Furthermore, for any node of the graph there is a path leading to the unique node providing the maximum expected reward, along which the expected reward is monotonically increasing. Previous results on this setting describe the behavior of frequentist MAB algorithms. In our paper, we design a Thompson Sampling-based algorithm whose asymptotic pseudo-regret matches the lower bound for the considered setting. We show that--as it happens in a wide number of scenarios--Bayesian MAB algorithms dramatically outperform frequentist ones. In particular, we provide a thorough experimental evaluation of the performance of our and state-of-the-art algorithms as the properties of the graph vary.

Usually one compares the accuracy of two competing classifiers via null hypothesis significance tests (nhst). Yet the nhst tests suffer from important shortcomings, which can be overcome by switching to Bayesian hypothesis testing. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model which jointly analyzes the cross-validation results obtained by two classifiers on multiple data sets. It returns the posterior probability of the accuracies of the two classifiers being practically equivalent or significantly different. A further strength of the hierarchical model is that, by jointly analyzing the results obtained on all data sets, it reduces the estimation error compared to the usual approach of averaging the cross-validation results obtained on a given data set.

Existing methods for structure discovery in time series data construct interpretable, compositional kernels for Gaussian process regression models. While the learned Gaussian process model provides posterior mean and variance estimates, typically the structure is learned via a greedy optimization procedure. This restricts the space of possible solutions and leads to over-confident uncertainty estimates. We introduce a fully Bayesian approach, inferring a full posterior over structures, which more reliably captures the uncertainty of the model.

Experiments that study neural encoding of stimuli at the level of individual neurons typically choose a small set of features present in the world --- contrast and luminance for vision, pitch and intensity for sound --- and assemble a stimulus set that systematically varies along these dimensions. Subsequent analysis of neural responses to these stimuli typically focuses on regression models, with experimenter-controlled features as predictors and spike counts or firing rates as responses. Unfortunately, this approach requires knowledge in advance about the relevant features coded by a given population of neurons. For domains as complex as social interaction or natural movement, however, the relevant feature space is poorly understood, and an arbitrary \emph{a priori} choice of features may give rise to confirmation bias. Here, we present a Bayesian model for exploratory data analysis that is capable of automatically identifying the features present in unstructured stimuli based solely on neuronal responses. Our approach is unique within the class of latent state space models of neural activity in that it assumes that firing rates of neurons are sensitive to multiple discrete time-varying features tied to the \emph{stimulus}, each of which has Markov (or semi-Markov) dynamics. That is, we are modeling neural activity as driven by multiple simultaneous stimulus features rather than intrinsic neural dynamics. We derive a fast variational Bayesian inference algorithm and show that it correctly recovers hidden features in synthetic data, as well as ground-truth stimulus features in a prototypical neural dataset. To demonstrate the utility of the algorithm, we also apply it to cluster neural responses and demonstrate successful recovery of features corresponding to monkeys and faces in the image set.

We present a new notion of probabilistic duality for random variables involving mixture distributions. Using this notion, we show how to implement a highly-parallelizable Gibbs sampler for weakly coupled discrete pairwise graphical models with strictly positive factors that requires almost no preprocessing and is easy to implement. Moreover, we show how our method can be combined with blocking to improve mixing. Even though our method leads to inferior mixing times compared to a sequential Gibbs sampler, we argue that our method is still very useful for large dynamic networks, where factors are added and removed on a continuous basis, as it is hard to maintain a graph coloring in this setup. Similarly, our method is useful for parallelizing Gibbs sampling in graphical models that do not allow for graph colorings with a small number of colors such as densely connected graphs.

A probabilistic query may not be estimable from observed data corrupted by missing values if the data are not missing at random (MAR). It is therefore of theoretical interest and practical importance to determine in principle whether a probabilistic query is estimable from missing data or not when the data are not MAR. We present an algorithm that systematically determines whether the joint probability is estimable from observed data with missing values, assuming that the data-generation model is represented as a Bayesian network containing unobserved latent variables that not only encodes the dependencies among the variables but also explicitly portrays the mechanisms responsible for the missingness process.

New proposed models are often compared to state-of-the-art using statistical significance testing. Literature is scarce for classifier comparison using metrics other than accuracy. We present a survey of statistical methods that can be used for classifier comparison using precision, accounting for inter-precision correlation arising from use of same dataset. Comparisons are made using per-class precision and methods presented to test global null hypothesis of an overall model comparison. Comparisons are extended to multiple multi-class classifiers and to models using cross validation or its variants. Partial Bayesian update to precision is introduced when population prevalence of a class is known. Applications to compare deep architectures are studied.

Recent sequential pattern mining methods have used the minimum description length (MDL) principle to define an encoding scheme which describes an algorithm for mining the most compressing patterns in a database. We present a novel subsequence interleaving model based on a probabilistic model of the sequence database, which allows us to search for the most compressing set of patterns without designing a specific encoding scheme. Our proposed algorithm is able to efficiently mine the most relevant sequential patterns and rank them using an associated measure of interestingness. The efficient inference in our model is a direct result of our use of a structural expectation-maximization framework, in which the expectation-step takes the form of a submodular optimization problem subject to a coverage constraint. We show on both synthetic and real world datasets that our model mines a set of sequential patterns with low spuriousness and redundancy, high interpretability and usefulness in real-world applications. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the quality of the patterns from our approach is comparable to, if not better than, existing state of the art sequential pattern mining algorithms.

We develop a supervised machine learning model that detects anomalies in systems in real time. Our model processes unbounded streams of data into time series which then form the basis of a low-latency anomaly detection model. Moreover, we extend our preliminary goal of just anomaly detection to simultaneous anomaly prediction. We approach this very challenging problem by developing a Bayesian Network framework that captures the information about the parameters of the lagged regressors calibrated in the first part of our approach and use this structure to learn local conditional probability distributions.