A key requirement for the current generation of artificial decision-makers is that they should adapt well to changes in unexpected situations. This paper addresses the situation in which an AI for aerial dog fighting, with tunable parameters that govern its behavior, must optimize behavior with respect to an objective function that is evaluated and learned through simulations. Bayesian optimization with a Gaussian Process surrogate is used as the method for investigating the objective function. One key benefit is that during optimization, the Gaussian Process learns a global estimate of the true objective function, with predicted outcomes and a statistical measure of confidence in areas that haven't been investigated yet. Having a model of the objective function is important for being able to understand possible outcomes in the decision space; for example this is crucial for training and providing feedback to human pilots. However, standard Bayesian optimization does not perform consistently or provide an accurate Gaussian Process surrogate function for highly volatile objective functions. We treat these problems by introducing a novel sampling technique called Hybrid Repeat/Multi-point Sampling. This technique gives the AI ability to learn optimum behaviors in a highly uncertain environment. More importantly, it not only improves the reliability of the optimization, but also creates a better model of the entire objective surface. With this improved model the agent is equipped to more accurately/efficiently predict performance in unexplored scenarios.

Recently, Stochastic Gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SG-MCMC) methods have been proposed for scaling up Monte Carlo computations to large data problems. Whilst these approaches have proven useful in many applications, vanilla SG-MCMC might suffer from poor mixing rates when random variables exhibit strong couplings under the target densities or big scale differences. In this study, we propose a novel SG-MCMC method that takes the local geometry into account by using ideas from Quasi-Newton optimization methods. These second order methods directly approximate the inverse Hessian by using a limited history of samples and their gradients. Our method uses dense approximations of the inverse Hessian while keeping the time and memory complexities linear with the dimension of the problem. We provide a formal theoretical analysis where we show that the proposed method is asymptotically unbiased and consistent with the posterior expectations. We illustrate the effectiveness of the approach on both synthetic and real datasets. Our experiments on two challenging applications show that our method achieves fast convergence rates similar to Riemannian approaches while at the same time having low computational requirements similar to diagonal preconditioning approaches.

It may sound trite, but humanity has come to dominate the world using this tool alone. Humans lack natural weapons, have no natural protection from the elements, and enter life as helpless infants. But our unique brains allow us to acquire, use, and communicate knowledge, and this advantage alone has allowed us to create the intricate social and technological reality we now inhabit. Our brains evolved to process, store, retrieve, and integrate sensory data into working knowledge that allows us to navigate reality. Until recently, humans were the only significant force that could translate raw data into accurate, actionable knowledge.

From Google search results to Netflix recommendations and investment strategies, Bayes Theorem (also often called Bayes Rule or Bayes Formula) is used across countless industries to help calculate and assess probability. Bayesian statistics is taught in most first-year statistics classes across the nation, but there is one major problem that many students (and others who are interested in the theorem) face. The theorem is not intuitive for most people, and understanding how it works can be a challenge, especially because it is often taught without visual aids. In this guide, we unpack the various components of the theorem and provide a basic overview of how it works – and with illustrations to help. Three scenarios – the flu, breathalyzer tests, and peacekeeping – are used throughout the booklet to teach how problems involving Bayes Theorem can be approached and solved.

We show that the square Hellinger distance between two Bayesian networks on the same directed graph, $G$, is subadditive with respect to the neighborhoods of $G$. Namely, if $P$ and $Q$ are the probability distributions defined by two Bayesian networks on the same DAG, our inequality states that the square Hellinger distance, $H^2(P,Q)$, between $P$ and $Q$ is upper bounded by the sum, $\sum_v H^2(P_{\{v\} \cup \Pi_v}, Q_{\{v\} \cup \Pi_v})$, of the square Hellinger distances between the marginals of $P$ and $Q$ on every node $v$ and its parents $\Pi_v$ in the DAG. Importantly, our bound does not involve the conditionals but the marginals of $P$ and $Q$. We derive a similar inequality for more general Markov Random Fields. As an application of our inequality, we show that distinguishing whether two Bayesian networks $P$ and $Q$ on the same (but potentially unknown) DAG satisfy $P=Q$ vs $d_{\rm TV}(P,Q)>\epsilon$ can be performed from $\tilde{O}(|\Sigma|^{3/4(d+1)} \cdot n/\epsilon^2)$ samples, where $d$ is the maximum in-degree of the DAG and $\Sigma$ the domain of each variable of the Bayesian networks. If $P$ and $Q$ are defined on potentially different and potentially unknown trees, the sample complexity becomes $\tilde{O}(|\Sigma|^{4.5} n/\epsilon^2)$, whose dependence on $n, \epsilon$ is optimal up to logarithmic factors. Lastly, if $P$ and $Q$ are product distributions over $\{0,1\}^n$ and $Q$ is known, the sample complexity becomes $O(\sqrt{n}/\epsilon^2)$, which is optimal up to constant factors.

Bayesian Optimization (BO) has become a core method for solving expensive black-box optimization problems. While much research focussed on the choice of the acquisition function, we focus on online length-scale adaption and the choice of kernel function. Instead of choosing hyperparameters in view of maximum likelihood on past data, we propose to use the acquisition function to decide on hyperparameter adaptation more robustly and in view of the future optimization progress. Further, we propose a particular kernel function that includes non-stationarity and local anisotropy and thereby implicitly integrates the efficiency of local convex optimization with global Bayesian optimization. Comparisons to state-of-the art BO methods underline the efficiency of these mechanisms on global optimization benchmarks.

Yet another research area in AI, neural networks, is inspired from the natural neural network of human nervous system. What are Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs)? The inventor of the first neurocomputer, Dr. Robert Hecht-Nielsen, defines a neural network as The idea of ANNs is based on the belief that working of human brain by making the right connections, can be imitated using silicon and wires as living neurons and dendrites. The human brain is composed of 100 billion nerve cells called neurons. They are connected to other thousand cells by Axons. Stimuli from external environment or inputs from sensory organs are accepted by dendrites. These inputs create electric impulses, which quickly travel through the neural network.

All the regression theory developed by statisticians over the last 200 years (related to the general linear model) is useless. Regression can be performed as accurately without statistical models, including the computation of confidence intervals (for estimates, predicted values or regression parameters). The non-statistical approach is also more robust than theory described in all statistics textbooks and taught in all statistical courses. It does not require Map-Reduce when data is really big, nor any matrix inversion, maximum likelihood estimation, or mathematical optimization (Newton algorithm). It is indeed incredibly simple, robust, easy to interpret, and easy to code (no statistical libraries required).

The analysis of distributed (non-Bayesian) learning algorithm gained popularity since the seminal work of Jadbabaie et al. [1]. The ability of non-Bayesian updates to combine distributed optimization and learning algorithms make them especially useful for the design of distributed estimation algorithms with provable performance. In the distributed learning setup, a group of agents repeatedly receive signals about a certain unknown state of the world or parameter. No single agent has enough information to accurately estimate the unknown state and, thus, interaction with other agents is needed. Several results are readily available for performance evaluation of distributed learning algorithms for a variety of scenarios.

This revision has corrected derivations, new R/JAGS code, and new diagrams.] Overview "Captain, the prior probability of this character dying and leaving the show is infinitesimal." A primary example of Bayes' rule is for disease diagnosis (or illicit drug screening). The example is invoked routinely to explain the importance of prior probabilities. Here's one version of it: Suppose a diagnostic test has a 97% detection rate and a 5% false alarm rate.