We introduce a unified probabilistic approach for deep continual learning based on variational Bayesian inference with open set recognition. Our model combines a probabilistic encoder with a generative model and a generative linear classifier that get shared across tasks. The open set recognition bounds the approximate posterior by fitting regions of high density on the basis of correctly classified data points and balances open-space risk with recognition errors. Catastrophic inference for both generative models is significantly alleviated through generative replay, where the open set recognition is used to sample from high density areas of the class specific posterior and reject statistical outliers. Our approach naturally allows for forward and backward transfer while maintaining past knowledge without the necessity of storing old data, regularization or inferring task labels. We demonstrate compelling results in the challenging scenario of incrementally expanding the single-head classifier for both class incremental visual and audio classification tasks, as well as incremental learning of datasets across modalities.

We propose a new algorithm---Stochastic Proximal Langevin Algorithm (SPLA)---for sampling from a log concave distribution. Our method is a generalization of the Langevin algorithm to potentials expressed as the sum of one stochastic smooth term and multiple stochastic nonsmooth terms. In each iteration, our splitting technique only requires access to a stochastic gradient of the smooth term and a stochastic proximal operator for each of the nonsmooth terms. We establish nonasymptotic sublinear and linear convergence rates under convexity and strong convexity of the smooth term, respectively, expressed in terms of the KL divergence and Wasserstein distance. We illustrate the efficiency of our sampling technique through numerical simulations on a Bayesian learning task.

General intelligence, the ability to solve arbitrary solvable problems, is supposed by many to be artificially constructible. Narrow intelligence, the ability to solve a given particularly difficult problem, has seen impressive recent development. Notable examples include self-driving cars, Go engines, image classifiers, and translators. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) presents dangers that narrow intelligence does not: if something smarter than us across every domain were indifferent to our concerns, it would be an existential threat to humanity, just as we threaten many species despite no ill will. Even the theory of how to maintain the alignment of an AGI's goals with our own has proven highly elusive. We present the first algorithm we are aware of for asymptotically unambitious AGI, where "unambitiousness" includes not seeking arbitrary power. Thus, we identify an exception to the Instrumental Convergence Thesis, which is roughly that by default, an AGI would seek power, including over us.

Capsule Networks are a recently proposed alternative for constructing Neural Networks, and early indications suggest that they can provide greater generalisation capacity using fewer parameters. In capsule networks scalar neurons are replaced with capsule vectors or matrices, whose entries represent different properties of objects. The relationships between objects and its parts are learned via trainable viewpoint-invariant transformation matrices, and the presence of a given object is decided by the level of agreement among votes from its parts. This interaction occurs between capsule layers and is a process called routing-by-agreement. Although promising, capsule networks remain underexplored by the community, and in this paper we present a new capsule routing algorithm based of Variational Bayes for a mixture of transforming gaussians. Our Bayesian approach addresses some of the inherent weaknesses of EM routing such as the 'variance collapse' by modelling uncertainty over the capsule parameters in addition to the routing assignment posterior probabilities. We test our method on public domain datasets and outperform the state-of-the-art performance on smallNORB using 50% less capsules.

The probability density function for the visible sector of a Riemann-Theta Boltzmann machine can be taken conditional on a subset of the visible units. We derive that the corresponding conditional density function is given by a reparameterization of the Riemann-Theta Boltzmann machine modelling the original probability density function. Therefore the conditional densities can be directly inferred from the Riemann-Theta Boltzmann machine.

Prevalent theories in cognitive science propose that humans understand and represent the knowledge of the world through causal relationships. In making sense of the world, we build causal models in our mind to encode cause-effect relations of events and use these to explain why new events happen. In this paper, we use causal models to derive causal explanations of behaviour of reinforcement learning agents. We present an approach that learns a structural causal model during reinforcement learning and encodes causal relationships between variables of interest. This model is then used to generate explanations of behaviour based on counterfactual analysis of the causal model. We report on a study with 120 participants who observe agents playing a real-time strategy game (Starcraft II) and then receive explanations of the agents' behaviour. We investigated: 1) participants' understanding gained by explanations through task prediction; 2) explanation satisfaction and 3) trust. Our results show that causal model explanations perform better on these measures compared to two other baseline explanation models.

Infinite-activity completely random measures (CRMs) have become important building blocks of complex Bayesian nonparametric models. They have been successfully used in various applications such as clustering, density estimation, latent feature models, survival analysis or network science. Popular infinite-activity CRMs include the (generalized) gamma process and the (stable) beta process. However, except in some specific cases, exact simulation or scalable inference with these models is challenging and finite-dimensional approximations are often considered. In this work, we propose a general and unified framework to derive both series representations and finite-dimensional approximations of CRMs. Our framework can be seen as an extension of constructions based on size-biased sampling of Poisson point process [Perman1992]. It includes as special cases several known series representations as well as novel ones. In particular, we show that one can get novel series representations for the generalized gamma process and the stable beta process. We also provide some analysis of the truncation error.

Sum-product networks (SPNs) are flexible density estimators and have received significant attention, due to their attractive inference properties. While parameter learning in SPNs is well developed, structure learning leaves something to be desired: Even though there is a plethora of SPN structure learners, most of them are somewhat ad-hoc, and based on intuition rather than a clear learning principle. In this paper, we introduce a well-principled Bayesian framework for SPN structure learning. First, we decompose the problem into i) laying out a basic computational graph, and ii) learning the so-called scope function over the graph. The first is rather unproblematic and akin to neural network architecture validation. The second characterises the effective structure of the SPN and needs to respect the usual structural constraints in SPN, i.e. completeness and decomposability. While representing and learning the scope function is rather involved in general, in this paper, we propose a natural parametrisation for an important and widely used special case of SPNs. These structural parameters are incorporated into a Bayesian model, such that simultaneous structure and parameter learning is cast into monolithic Bayesian posterior inference. In various experiments, our Bayesian SPNs often improve test likelihoods over greedy SPN learners. Further, since the Bayesian framework protects against overfitting, we are able to evaluate hyper-parameters directly on the Bayesian model score, waiving the need for a separate validation set, which is especially beneficial in low data regimes. Bayesian SPNs can be applied to heterogeneous domains and can easily be extended to nonparametric formulations. Moreover, our Bayesian approach is the first which consistently and robustly learns SPN structures under missing data.

Variational Bayes (VB) is a scalable alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) for Bayesian posterior inference. Though popular, VB comes with few theoretical guarantees, most of which focus on well-specified models. However, models are rarely well-specified in practice. In this work, we study VB under model misspecification. We prove the VB posterior is asymptotically normal and centers at the value that minimizes the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to the true data-generating distribution. Moreover, the VB posterior mean centers at the same value and is also asymptotically normal. These results generalize the variational Bernstein--von Mises theorem [29] to misspecified models. As a consequence of these results, we find that the model misspecification error dominates the variational approximation error in VB posterior predictive distributions. It explains the widely observed phenomenon that VB achieves comparable predictive accuracy with MCMC even though VB uses an approximating family. As illustrations, we study VB under three forms of model misspecification, ranging from model over-/under-dispersion to latent dimensionality misspecification. We conduct two simulation studies that demonstrate the theoretical results.

Deep neural networks have achieved impressive results on a wide variety of tasks. However, quantifying uncertainty in the network's output is a challenging task. Bayesian models offer a mathematical framework to reason about model uncertainty. Variational methods have been used for approximating intractable integrals that arise in Bayesian inference for neural networks. In this report, we review the major variational inference concepts pertinent to Bayesian neural networks and compare various approximation methods used in literature. We also talk about the applications of variational bayes in Reinforcement learning and continual learning.