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Quantifying Skill and Chance: A Unified Framework for the Geometry of Games
We introduce a quantitative framework for separating skill and chance in games by modeling them as complementary sources of control over stochastic decision trees. We define the Skill-Luck Index S(G) in [-1, 1] by decomposing game outcomes into skill leverage K and luck leverage L. Applying this to 30 games reveals a continuum from pure chance (coin toss, S = -1) through mixed domains such as backgammon (S = 0, Sigma = 1.20) to pure skill (chess, S = +1, Sigma = 0). Poker exhibits moderate skill dominance (S = 0.33) with K = 0.40 +/- 0.03 and Sigma = 0.80. We further introduce volatility Sigma to quantify outcome uncertainty over successive turns. The framework extends to general stochastic decision systems, enabling principled comparisons of player influence, game balance, and predictive stability, with applications to game design, AI evaluation, and risk assessment.
Variational Quantum Algorithms for Particle Track Reconstruction
Lipardi, Vincenzo, Chiotopoulos, Xenofon, de Vries, Jacco A., Dibenedetto, Domenica, Driessens, Kurt, Merk, Marcel, Winands, Mark H. M.
Quantum Computing is a rapidly developing field with the potential to tackle the increasing computational challenges faced in high-energy physics. In this work, we explore the potential and limitations of variational quantum algorithms in solving the particle track reconstruction problem. We present an analysis of two distinct formulations for identifying straight-line tracks in a multilayer detection system, inspired by the LHCb vertex detector. The first approach is formulated as a ground-state energy problem, while the second approach is formulated as a system of linear equations. This work addresses one of the main challenges when dealing with variational quantum algorithms on general problems, namely designing an expressive and efficient quantum ansatz working on tracking events with fixed detector geometry. For this purpose, we employed a quantum architecture search method based on Monte Carlo Tree Search to design the quantum circuits for different problem sizes. We provide experimental results to test our approach on both formulations for different problem sizes in terms of performance and computational cost.
$\rm{A}^{\rm{SAR}}$: $\varepsilon$-Optimal Graph Search for Minimum Expected-Detection-Time Paths with Path Budget Constraints for Search and Rescue
Mugford, Eric, Gammell, Jonathan D.
Searches are conducted to find missing persons and/or objects given uncertain information, imperfect observers and large search areas in Search and Rescue (SAR). In many scenarios, such as Maritime SAR, expected survival times are short and optimal search could increase the likelihood of success. This optimization problem is complex for nontrivial problems given its probabilistic nature. Stochastic optimization methods search large problems by nondeterministically sampling the space to reduce the effective size of the problem. This has been used in SAR planning to search otherwise intractably large problems but the stochastic nature provides no formal guarantees on the quality of solutions found in finite time. This paper instead presents $\rm{A}^{\rm{SAR}}$, an $\varepsilon$-optimal search algorithm for SAR planning. It calculates a heuristic to bound the search space and uses graph-search methods to find solutions that are formally guaranteed to be within a user-specified factor, $\varepsilon$, of the optimal solution. It finds better solutions faster than existing optimization approaches in operational simulations. It is also demonstrated with a real-world field trial on Lake Ontario, Canada, where it was used to locate a drifting manikin in only 150s.
Convergent Functions, Divergent Forms
Jeon, Hyeonseong, Eftekhar, Ainaz, Walsman, Aaron, Zeng, Kuo-Hao, Farhadi, Ali, Krishna, Ranjay
We introduce LOKI, a compute-efficient framework for co-designing morphologies and control policies that generalize across unseen tasks. Inspired by biological adaptation -- where animals quickly adjust to morphological changes -- our method overcomes the inefficiencies of traditional evolutionary and quality-diversity algorithms. We propose learning convergent functions: shared control policies trained across clusters of morphologically similar designs in a learned latent space, drastically reducing the training cost per design. Simultaneously, we promote divergent forms by replacing mutation with dynamic local search, enabling broader exploration and preventing premature convergence. The policy reuse allows us to explore 780$\times$ more designs using 78% fewer simulation steps and 40% less compute per design. Local competition paired with a broader search results in a diverse set of high-performing final morphologies. Using the UNIMAL design space and a flat-terrain locomotion task, LOKI discovers a rich variety of designs -- ranging from quadrupeds to crabs, bipedals, and spinners -- far more diverse than those produced by prior work. These morphologies also transfer better to unseen downstream tasks in agility, stability, and manipulation domains (e.g., 2$\times$ higher reward on bump and push box incline tasks). Overall, our approach produces designs that are both diverse and adaptable, with substantially greater sample efficiency than existing co-design methods. (Project website: https://loki-codesign.github.io/)