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Testing the Efficacy of Hyperparameter Optimization Algorithms in Short-Term Load Forecasting
Hakyemez, Tugrul Cabir, Adar, Omer
Accurate forecasting of electrical demand is essential for maintaining a stable and reliable power grid, optimizing the allocation of energy resources, and promoting efficient energy consumption practices. This study investigates the effectiveness of five hyperparameter optimization (HPO) algorithms -- Random Search, Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy (CMA--ES), Bayesian Optimization, Partial Swarm Optimization (PSO), and Nevergrad Optimizer (NGOpt) across univariate and multivariate Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) tasks. Using the Panama Electricity dataset (n=48,049), we evaluate HPO algorithms' performances on a surrogate forecasting algorithm, XGBoost, in terms of accuracy (i.e., MAPE, $R^2$) and runtime. Performance plots visualize these metrics across varying sample sizes from 1,000 to 20,000, and Kruskal--Wallis tests assess the statistical significance of the performance differences. Results reveal significant runtime advantages for HPO algorithms over Random Search. In univariate models, Bayesian optimization exhibited the lowest accuracy among the tested methods. This study provides valuable insights for optimizing XGBoost in the STLF context and identifies areas for future research.
EvoPress: Towards Optimal Dynamic Model Compression via Evolutionary Search
Sieberling, Oliver, Kuznedelev, Denis, Kurtic, Eldar, Alistarh, Dan
The high computational costs of large language models (LLMs) have led to a flurry of research on LLM compression, via methods such as quantization, sparsification, or structured pruning. A new frontier in this area is given by \emph{dynamic, non-uniform} compression methods, which adjust the compression levels (e.g., sparsity) per-block or even per-layer in order to minimize accuracy loss, while guaranteeing a global compression threshold. Yet, current methods rely on heuristics for identifying the "importance" of a given layer towards the loss, based on assumptions such as \emph{error monotonicity}, i.e. that the end-to-end model compression error is proportional to the sum of layer-wise errors. In this paper, we revisit this area, and propose a new and general approach for dynamic compression that is provably optimal in a given input range. We begin from the motivating observation that, in general, \emph{error monotonicity does not hold for LLMs}: compressed models with lower sum of per-layer errors can perform \emph{worse} than models with higher error sums. To address this, we propose a new general evolutionary framework for dynamic LLM compression called EvoPress, which has provable convergence, and low sample and evaluation complexity. We show that these theoretical guarantees lead to highly competitive practical performance for dynamic compression of Llama, Mistral and Phi models. Via EvoPress, we set new state-of-the-art results across all compression approaches: structural pruning (block/layer dropping), unstructured sparsity, as well as quantization with dynamic bitwidths. Our code is available at https://github.com/IST-DASLab/EvoPress.
Toward a Unified Graph-Based Representation of Medical Data for Precision Oncology Medicine
Belluomo, Davide, Calamoneri, Tiziana, Paesani, Giacomo, Salvo, Ivano
We present a new unified graph-based representation of medical data, combining genetic information and medical records of patients with medical knowledge via a unique knowledge graph. This approach allows us to infer meaningful information and explanations that would be unavailable by looking at each data set separately. The systematic use of different databases, managed throughout the built knowledge graph, gives new insights toward a better understanding of oncology medicine. Indeed, we reduce some useful medical tasks to well-known problems in theoretical computer science for which efficient algorithms exist.
ExACT: Teaching AI Agents to Explore with Reflective-MCTS and Exploratory Learning
Yu, Xiao, Peng, Baolin, Vajipey, Vineeth, Cheng, Hao, Galley, Michel, Gao, Jianfeng, Yu, Zhou
Autonomous agents have demonstrated significant potential in automating complex multistep decision-making tasks. However, even state-of-the-art vision-language models (VLMs), such as GPT-4o, still fall short of human-level performance, particularly in intricate web environments and long-horizon tasks. To address these limitations, we present ExACT, an approach to combine test-time search and self-learning to build o1-like models for agentic applications. We first introduce Reflective Monte Carlo Tree Search (R-MCTS), a novel test time algorithm designed to enhance AI agents' ability to explore decision space on the fly. R-MCTS extends traditional MCTS by 1) incorporating contrastive reflection, allowing agents to learn from past interactions and dynamically improve their search efficiency; and 2) using multi-agent debate for reliable state evaluation. Next, we introduce Exploratory Learning, a novel learning strategy to teach agents to search at inference time without relying on any external search algorithms. On the challenging VisualWebArena benchmark, our GPT-4o based R-MCTS agent achieves a 6% to 30% relative improvement across various tasks compared to the previous state-of-the-art. Additionally, we show that the knowledge and experience gained from test-time search can be effectively transferred back to GPT-4o via fine-tuning. After Exploratory Learning, GPT-4o 1) demonstrates the ability to explore the environment, evaluate a state, and backtrack to viable ones when it detects that the current state cannot lead to success, and 2) matches 87% of R-MCTS's performance while using significantly less compute. Notably, our work demonstrates the compute scaling properties in both training - data collection with R-MCTS - and testing time. These results suggest a promising research direction to enhance VLMs' capabilities for agentic applications via test-time search and self-learning.
Corruption-Robust Linear Bandits: Minimax Optimality and Gap-Dependent Misspecification
Liu, Haolin, Tajdini, Artin, Wagenmaker, Andrew, Wei, Chen-Yu
In linear bandits, how can a learner effectively learn when facing corrupted rewards? While significant work has explored this question, a holistic understanding across different adversarial models and corruption measures is lacking, as is a full characterization of the minimax regret bounds. In this work, we compare two types of corruptions commonly considered: strong corruption, where the corruption level depends on the action chosen by the learner, and weak corruption, where the corruption level does not depend on the action chosen by the learner. We provide a unified framework to analyze these corruptions. For stochastic linear bandits, we fully characterize the gap between the minimax regret under strong and weak corruptions. We also initiate the study of corrupted adversarial linear bandits, obtaining upper and lower bounds with matching dependencies on the corruption level. Next, we reveal a connection between corruption-robust learning and learning with gap-dependent mis-specification, a setting first studied by Liu et al. (2023a), where the misspecification level of an action or policy is proportional to its suboptimality. We present a general reduction that enables any corruption-robust algorithm to handle gap-dependent misspecification. This allows us to recover the results of Liu et al. (2023a) in a black-box manner and significantly generalize them to settings like linear MDPs, yielding the first results for gap-dependent misspecification in reinforcement learning. However, this general reduction does not attain the optimal rate for gap-dependent misspecification. Motivated by this, we develop a specialized algorithm that achieves optimal bounds for gap-dependent misspecification in linear bandits, thus answering an open question posed by Liu et al. (2023a).
Efficient Sparse PCA via Block-Diagonalization
Del Pia, Alberto, Zhou, Dekun, Zhu, Yinglun
Sparse Principal Component Analysis (Sparse PCA) is a pivotal tool in data analysis and dimensionality reduction. However, Sparse PCA is a challenging problem in both theory and practice: it is known to be NP-hard and current exact methods generally require exponential runtime. In this paper, we propose a novel framework to efficiently approximate Sparse PCA by (i) approximating the general input covariance matrix with a re-sorted block-diagonal matrix, (ii) solving the Sparse PCA sub-problem in each block, and (iii) reconstructing the solution to the original problem. Our framework is simple and powerful: it can leverage any off-the-shelf Sparse PCA algorithm and achieve significant computational speedups, with a minor additive error that is linear in the approximation error of the block-diagonal matrix. Suppose $g(k, d)$ is the runtime of an algorithm (approximately) solving Sparse PCA in dimension $d$ and with sparsity value $k$. Our framework, when integrated with this algorithm, reduces the runtime to $\mathcal{O}\left(\frac{d}{d^\star} \cdot g(k, d^\star) + d^2\right)$, where $d^\star \leq d$ is the largest block size of the block-diagonal matrix. For instance, integrating our framework with the Branch-and-Bound algorithm reduces the complexity from $g(k, d) = \mathcal{O}(k^3\cdot d^k)$ to $\mathcal{O}(k^3\cdot d \cdot (d^\star)^{k-1})$, demonstrating exponential speedups if $d^\star$ is small. We perform large-scale evaluations on many real-world datasets: for exact Sparse PCA algorithm, our method achieves an average speedup factor of 93.77, while maintaining an average approximation error of 2.15%; for approximate Sparse PCA algorithm, our method achieves an average speedup factor of 6.77 and an average approximation error of merely 0.37%.
Learning Representations for Reasoning: Generalizing Across Diverse Structures
Reasoning, the ability to logically draw conclusions from existing knowledge, is a hallmark of human. Together with perception, they constitute the two major themes of artificial intelligence. While deep learning has pushed the limit of perception beyond human-level performance, the progress in reasoning domains is way behind. One fundamental reason is that reasoning problems usually have flexible structures for both knowledge and queries, and many existing models only perform well on structures seen during training. Here we aim to push the boundary of reasoning models by devising algorithms that generalize across knowledge and query structures, as well as systems that accelerate development on structured data. This thesis consists of three parts. In Part I, we study models that can inductively generalize to unseen knowledge graphs with new entity and relation vocabularies. For new entities, we propose a framework that learns neural operators in a dynamic programming algorithm computing path representations. For relations, we construct a relation graph to capture the interactions between relations, thereby converting new relations into new entities. In Part II, we propose two solutions for generalizing across multi-step queries on knowledge graphs and text respectively. For knowledge graphs, we show that multi-step queries can be solved by multiple calls of graph neural networks and fuzzy logic operations. For text, we devise an algorithm to learn explicit knowledge as textual rules to improve large language models on multi-step queries. In Part III, we propose two systems to facilitate machine learning development on structured data. Our library treats structured data as first-class citizens and removes the barrier for developing algorithms on structured data. Our node embedding system solves the GPU memory bottleneck of embedding matrices and scales to graphs with billion nodes.
Can Search-Based Testing with Pareto Optimization Effectively Cover Failure-Revealing Test Inputs?
Sorokin, Lev, Safin, Damir, Nejati, Shiva
Search-based software testing (SBST) is a widely adopted technique for testing complex systems with large input spaces, such as Deep Learning-enabled (DL-enabled) systems. Many SBST techniques focus on Pareto-based optimization, where multiple objectives are optimized in parallel to reveal failures. However, it is important to ensure that identified failures are spread throughout the entire failure-inducing area of a search domain and not clustered in a sub-region. This ensures that identified failures are semantically diverse and reveal a wide range of underlying causes. In this paper, we present a theoretical argument explaining why testing based on Pareto optimization is inadequate for covering failure-inducing areas within a search domain. We support our argument with empirical results obtained by applying two widely used types of Pareto-based optimization techniques, namely NSGA-II (an evolutionary algorithm) and OMOPSO (a swarm-based Pareto-optimization algorithm), to two DL-enabled systems: an industrial Automated Valet Parking (AVP) system and a system for classifying handwritten digits. We measure the coverage of failure-revealing test inputs in the input space using a metric that we refer to as the Coverage Inverted Distance quality indicator. Our results show that NSGA-II-based search and OMOPSO are not more effective than a na\"ive random search baseline in covering test inputs that reveal failures. The replication package for this study is available in a GitHub repository.
Reclaiming the Source of Programmatic Policies: Programmatic versus Latent Spaces
Carvalho, Tales H., Tjhia, Kenneth, Lelis, Levi H. S.
Recent works have introduced LEAPS and HPRL, systems that learn latent spaces of domain-specific languages, which are used to define programmatic policies for partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). These systems induce a latent space while optimizing losses such as the behavior loss, which aim to achieve locality in program behavior, meaning that vectors close in the latent space should correspond to similarly behaving programs. In this paper, we show that the programmatic space, induced by the domain-specific language and requiring no training, presents values for the behavior loss similar to those observed in latent spaces presented in previous work. Moreover, algorithms searching in the programmatic space significantly outperform those in LEAPS and HPRL. To explain our results, we measured the "friendliness" of the two spaces to local search algorithms. We discovered that algorithms are more likely to stop at local maxima when searching in the latent space than when searching in the programmatic space. This implies that the optimization topology of the programmatic space, induced by the reward function in conjunction with the neighborhood function, is more conducive to search than that of the latent space. This result provides an explanation for the superior performance in the programmatic space.