Rule-Based Reasoning
A Comprehensive Survey on Root Cause Analysis in (Micro) Services: Methodologies, Challenges, and Trends
Initially, IT operations were predominantly manual, relying heavily on human intervention for system monitoring, troubleshooting, and problem resolution. However, with the escalating scale and complexity of systems, the efficacy and precision of manual operations have been increasingly challenged. Subsequently, DevOps was introduced, building upon manual operations and fostering a synergistic collaboration between development and operations. Through automated deployment and continuous integration, DevOps has the capability to expedite the release of new features and rectify issues with greater speed and reliability. Nonetheless, DevOps still necessitates manual involvement in certain complex decision-making processes and tasks. To further mitigate this challenge and enhance cost-effectiveness and efficiency, AIOps leverages machine learning and data analysis to automatically collect and scrutinize vast amounts of IT operation data, enabling real-time monitoring, anomaly detection, fault localization, and automated processing of IT systems. AIOps not only augments the efficiency and accuracy of IT operations but also equips IT operations with the capacity to adapt more effectively to complex and dynamic IT environments, utilizing artificial intelligence and big data technologies.
New Rules for Causal Identification with Background Knowledge
Wang, Tian-Zuo, Tao, Lue, Zhou, Zhi-Hua
Identifying causal relations is crucial for a variety of downstream tasks. In additional to observational data, background knowledge (BK), which could be attained from human expertise or experiments, is usually introduced for uncovering causal relations. This raises an open problem that in the presence of latent variables, what causal relations are identifiable from observational data and BK. In this paper, we propose two novel rules for incorporating BK, which offer a new perspective to the open problem. In addition, we show that these rules are applicable in some typical causality tasks, such as determining the set of possible causal effects with observational data. Our rule-based approach enhances the state-of-the-art method by circumventing a process of enumerating block sets that would otherwise take exponential complexity.
Dynamic Pricing in Securities Lending Market: Application in Revenue Optimization for an Agent Lender Portfolio
Xu, Jing, Hsu, Yung Cheng, Biscarri, William
Securities lending is an important part of the financial market structure, where agent lenders help long term institutional investors to lend out their securities to short sellers in exchange for a lending fee. Agent lenders within the market seek to optimize revenue by lending out securities at the highest rate possible. Typically, this rate is set by hard-coded business rules or standard supervised machine learning models. These approaches are often difficult to scale and are not adaptive to changing market conditions. Unlike a traditional stock exchange with a centralized limit order book, the securities lending market is organized similarly to an e-commerce marketplace, where agent lenders and borrowers can transact at any agreed price in a bilateral fashion. This similarity suggests that the use of typical methods for addressing dynamic pricing problems in e-commerce could be effective in the securities lending market. We show that existing contextual bandit frameworks can be successfully utilized in the securities lending market. Using offline evaluation on real historical data, we show that the contextual bandit approach can consistently outperform typical approaches by at least 15% in terms of total revenue generated.
Towards consistency of rule-based explainer and black box model -- fusion of rule induction and XAI-based feature importance
Kozielski, Michaล, Sikora, Marek, Wawrowski, ลukasz
Rule-based models offer a human-understandable representation, i.e. they are interpretable. For this reason, they are used to explain the decisions of non-interpretable complex models, referred to as black box models. The generation of such explanations involves the approximation of a black box model by a rule-based model. To date, however, it has not been investigated whether the rule-based model makes decisions in the same way as the black box model it approximates. Decision making in the same way is understood in this work as the consistency of decisions and the consistency of the most important attributes used for decision making. This study proposes a novel approach ensuring that the rule-based surrogate model mimics the performance of the black box model. The proposed solution performs an explanation fusion involving rule generation and taking into account the feature importance determined by the selected XAI methods for the black box model being explained. The result of the method can be both global and local rule-based explanations. The quality of the proposed solution was verified by extensive analysis on 30 tabular benchmark datasets representing classification problems. Evaluation included comparison with the reference method and an illustrative case study. In addition, the paper discusses the possible pathways for the application of the rule-based approach in XAI and how rule-based explanations, including the proposed method, meet the user perspective and requirements for both content and presentation. The software created and a detailed report containing the full experimental results are available on the GitHub repository (https://github.com/ruleminer/FI-rules4XAI ).
Rule-Based, Neural and LLM Back-Translation: Comparative Insights from a Variant of Ladin
Frontull, Samuel, Moser, Georg
This paper explores the impact of different back-translation approaches on machine translation for Ladin, specifically the Val Badia variant. Given the limited amount of parallel data available for this language (only 18k Ladin-Italian sentence pairs), we investigate the performance of a multilingual neural machine translation model fine-tuned for Ladin-Italian. In addition to the available authentic data, we synthesise further translations by using three different models: a fine-tuned neural model, a rule-based system developed specifically for this language pair, and a large language model. Our experiments show that all approaches achieve comparable translation quality in this low-resource scenario, yet round-trip translations highlight differences in model performance.
CoGS: Causality Constrained Counterfactual Explanations using goal-directed ASP
Dasgupta, Sopam, Arias, Joaquรญn, Salazar, Elmer, Gupta, Gopal
Machine learning models are increasingly used in areas such as loan approvals and hiring, yet they often function as black boxes, obscuring their decision-making processes. Transparency is crucial, and individuals need explanations to understand decisions, especially for the ones not desired by the user. Ethical and legal considerations require informing individuals of changes in input attribute values (features) that could lead to a desired outcome for the user. Our work aims to generate counterfactual explanations by considering causal dependencies between features. We present the CoGS (Counterfactual Generation with s(CASP)) framework that utilizes the goal-directed Answer Set Programming system s(CASP) to generate counterfactuals from rule-based machine learning models, specifically the FOLD-SE algorithm. CoGS computes realistic and causally consistent changes to attribute values taking causal dependencies between them into account. It finds a path from an undesired outcome to a desired one using counterfactuals.
A New Self-organizing Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Neural Network for Multi-Step Time Series Prediction
Yao, Fulong, Zhao, Wanqing, Forshaw, Matthew, Song, Yang
This paper proposes a new self-organizing interval type-2 fuzzy neural network with multiple outputs (SOIT2FNN-MO) for multi-step time series prediction. Differing from the traditional six-layer IT2FNN, a nine-layer network is developed to improve prediction accuracy, uncertainty handling and model interpretability. First, a new co-antecedent layer and a modified consequent layer are devised to improve the interpretability of the fuzzy model for multi-step predictions. Second, a new transformation layer is designed to address the potential issues in the vanished rule firing strength caused by highdimensional inputs. Third, a new link layer is proposed to build temporal connections between multi-step predictions. Furthermore, a two-stage self-organizing mechanism is developed to automatically generate the fuzzy rules, in which the first stage is used to create the rule base from empty and perform the initial optimization, while the second stage is to fine-tune all network parameters. Finally, various simulations are carried out on chaotic and microgrid time series prediction problems, demonstrating the superiority of our approach in terms of prediction accuracy, uncertainty handling and model interpretability.
MELT: Mining Effective Lightweight Transformations from Pull Requests
Ramos, Daniel, Mitchell, Hailie, Lynce, Inรชs, Manquinho, Vasco, Martins, Ruben, Goues, Claire Le
Software developers often struggle to update APIs, leading to manual, time-consuming, and error-prone processes. We introduce MELT, a new approach that generates lightweight API migration rules directly from pull requests in popular library repositories. Our key insight is that pull requests merged into open-source libraries are a rich source of information sufficient to mine API migration rules. By leveraging code examples mined from the library source and automatically generated code examples based on the pull requests, we infer transformation rules in \comby, a language for structural code search and replace. Since inferred rules from single code examples may be too specific, we propose a generalization procedure to make the rules more applicable to client projects. MELT rules are syntax-driven, interpretable, and easily adaptable. Moreover, unlike previous work, our approach enables rule inference to seamlessly integrate into the library workflow, removing the need to wait for client code migrations. We evaluated MELT on pull requests from four popular libraries, successfully mining 461 migration rules from code examples in pull requests and 114 rules from auto-generated code examples. Our generalization procedure increases the number of matches for mined rules by 9x. We applied these rules to client projects and ran their tests, which led to an overall decrease in the number of warnings and fixing some test cases demonstrating MELT's effectiveness in real-world scenarios.
DECIDER: A Dual-System Rule-Controllable Decoding Framework for Language Generation
Xu, Chen, Lan, Tian, Yu, Changlong, Wang, Wei, Gao, Jun, Ji, Yu, Dong, Qunxi, Qian, Kun, Li, Piji, Bi, Wei, Hu, Bin
Constrained decoding approaches aim to control the meaning or style of text generated by a Pre-trained Language Model (PLM) using specific target words during inference. However, these methods often guide plausible continuations by greedily selecting targets, which, while completing the task, may disrupt the natural patterns of human language generation. In this work, we propose a novel decoding framework, DECIDER, which enables us to program rules on how we complete tasks to control a PLM. Differing from previous work, our framework transforms the encouragement of target words into the encouragement of all words that satisfy the rule. Specifically, DECIDER is a dual system where a PLM is equipped with a First-OrderLogic (FOL) reasoner to express and evaluate the rules, and a decision function to merge the outputs from both systems to steer the generation. Experiments on CommonGen and PersonaChat demonstrate that DECIDER can effectively follow given rules to achieve generation tasks in a more human-like manner.
Neural Probabilistic Logic Learning for Knowledge Graph Reasoning
Sun, Fengsong, Wang, Jinyu, Wei, Zhiqing, Zhang, Xianchao
Knowledge graph (KG) reasoning is a task that aims to predict unknown facts based on known factual samples. Reasoning methods can be divided into two categories: rule-based methods and KG-embedding based methods. The former possesses precise reasoning capabilities but finds it challenging to reason efficiently over large-scale knowledge graphs. While gaining the ability to reason over large-scale knowledge graphs, the latter sacrifices reasoning accuracy. This paper aims to design a reasoning framework called Neural Probabilistic Logic Learning(NPLL) that achieves accurate reasoning on knowledge graphs. Our approach introduces a scoring module that effectively enhances the expressive power of embedding networks, striking a balance between model simplicity and reasoning capabilities. We improve the interpretability of the model by incorporating a Markov Logic Network based on variational inference. We empirically evaluate our approach on several benchmark datasets, and the experimental results validate that our method substantially enhances the accuracy and quality of the reasoning results.