Developing a reliable parametric cost model at the conceptual stage of the project is crucial for projects managers and decision-makers. Existing methods, such as probabilistic and statistical algorithms have been developed for project cost prediction. However, these methods are unable to produce accurate results for conceptual cost prediction due to small and unstable data samples. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) algorithms include numerous models and algorithms for supervised regression applications. Therefore, a comparison analysis for AI models is required to guide practitioners to the appropriate model. The study focuses on investigating twenty artificial intelligence (AI) techniques which are conducted for cost modeling such as fuzzy logic (FL) model, artificial neural networks (ANNs), multiple regression analysis (MRA), case-based reasoning (CBR), hybrid models, and ensemble methods such as scalable boosting trees (XGBoost). Field canals improvement projects (FCIPs) are used as an actual case study to analyze the performance of the applied ML models. Out of 20 AI techniques, the results showed that the most accurate and suitable method is XGBoost with 9.091% and 0.929 based on Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and adjusted R2. Nonlinear adaptability, handling missing values and outliers, model interpretation and uncertainty have been discussed for the twenty developed AI models. Keywords: Artificial intelligence, Machine learning, ensemble methods, XGBoost, evolutionary fuzzy rules generation, Conceptual cost, and parametric cost model.

Recently, several authors have advocated the use of rule learning algorithms to model multi-label data, as rules are interpretable and can be comprehended, analyzed, or qualitatively evaluated by domain experts. Many rule learning algorithms employ a heuristic-guided search for rules that model regularities contained in the training data and it is commonly accepted that the choice of the heuristic has a significant impact on the predictive performance of the learner. Whereas the properties of rule learning heuristics have been studied in the realm of single-label classification, there is no such work taking into account the particularities of multi-label classification. This is surprising, as the quality of multi-label predictions is usually assessed in terms of a variety of different, potentially competing, performance measures that cannot all be optimized by a single learner at the same time. In this work, we show empirically that it is crucial to trade off the consistency and coverage of rules differently, depending on which multi-label measure should be optimized by a model. Based on these findings, we emphasize the need for configurable learners that can flexibly use different heuristics. As our experiments reveal, the choice of the heuristic is not straight-forward, because a search for rules that optimize a measure locally does usually not result in a model that maximizes that measure globally.

After admission to emergency department (ED), patients with critical illnesses are transferred to intensive care unit (ICU) due to unexpected clinical deterioration occurrence. Identifying such unplanned ICU transfers is urgently needed for medical physicians to achieve two-fold goals: improving critical care quality and preventing mortality. A priority task is to understand the crucial rationale behind diagnosis results of individual patients during stay in ED, which helps prepare for an early transfer to ICU. Most existing prediction studies were based on univariate analysis or multiple logistic regression to provide one-size-fit-all results. However, patient condition varying from case to case may not be accurately examined by the only judgment. In this study, we present a new decision tool using a mathematical optimization approach aiming to automatically discover rules associating diagnostic features with high-risk outcome (i.e., unplanned transfers) in different deterioration scenarios. We consider four mutually exclusive patient subgroups based on the principal reasons of ED visits: infections, cardiovascular/respiratory diseases, gastrointestinal diseases, and neurological/other diseases at a suburban teaching hospital. The analysis results demonstrate significant rules associated with unplanned transfer outcome for each subgroups and also show comparable prediction accuracy, compared to state-of-the-art machine learning methods while providing easy-to-interpret symptom-outcome information.

Rule-based models are often used for data analysis as they combine interpretability with predictive power. We present RuleKit, a versatile tool for rule learning. Based on a sequential covering induction algorithm, it is suitable for classification, regression, and survival problems. The presence of a user-guided induction facilitates verifying hypotheses concerning data dependencies which are expected or of interest. The powerful and flexible experimental environment allows straightforward investigation of different induction schemes. The analysis can be performed in batch mode, through RapidMiner plug-in, or R package. A documented Java API is also provided for convenience. The software is publicly available at GitHub under GNU AGPL-3.0 license.

Learning When to Drive in Intersections by Combining Reinforcement Learning and Model Predictive Control Tommy Tram 1, 2, 3, Ivo Batkovic 1, 2, 3, Mohammad Ali 1, and Jonas Sj oberg 2 Abstract -- In this paper, we propose a decision making algorithm intended for automated vehicles that negotiate with other possibly non-automated vehicles in intersections. The decision algorithm is separated into two parts: a high-level decision module based on reinforcement learning, and a low-level planning module based on model predictive control. Traffic is simulated with numerous predefined driver behaviors and intentions, and the performance of the proposed decision algorithm was evaluated against another controller . The results show that the proposed decision algorithm yields shorter training episodes and an increased performance in success rate compared to the other controller . Interactions between road users in intersections is a complex problem to solve, making it difficult to address using conventional rule based systems. Many advancements aim to solve this problem by trying to imitate human drivers [1] or predicting what other drivers in traffic are planning to do [2]. In [3], the authors show that by modeling the decision process as a partially observable Markov decision process, the model can account for uncertainty in sensing the environment and [4] showed some probabilistic guarantees when solving the problem using reinforcement learning (RL).

An inference engine using forward chaining applies a set of rules and facts to deduce conclusions, searching the rules until it finds one where the IF clause is known to be true. The process of matching new or existing facts against rules is called pattern matching, which forward chaining inference engines perform through various algorithms, such as Linear, Rete, Treat, Leaps, etc. When a condition is found to be TRUE, the engine executes the THEN clause, which results in new information being added to its dataset. In other words, the engine starts with a number of facts and applies rules to derive all possible conclusions from those facts. This is where the name "forward chaining" comes from -- the fact that the inference engine starts with the data and reasons its way forward to the answer, as opposed to backward chaining, which works the other way around.

This paper presents a new algorithm: TSRuleGrowth, looking for partially-ordered rules over a time series. This algorithm takes principles from the state of the art of rule mining and applies them to time series via a new notion of support. We apply this algorithm to real data from a connected environment, which extract user habits through different connected objects.

Lexical simplification (LS) aims to replace complex words in a given sentence with their simpler alternatives of equivalent meaning. Recently unsupervised lexical simplification approaches only rely on the complex word itself regardless of the given sentence to generate candidate substitutions, which will inevitably produce a large number of spurious candidates. We present a simple BERT-based LS approach that makes use of the pre-trained unsupervised deep bidirectional representations BERT. We feed the given sentence masked the complex word into the masking language model of BERT to generate candidate substitutions. By considering the whole sentence, the generated simpler alternatives are easier to hold cohesion and coherence of a sentence. Experimental results show that our approach obtains obvious improvement on standard LS benchmark.

The integrated use of Machine Learning (ML) and Business Rules (BR) is one of the most practical trends in the development of modern decision-making software. OpenRules is involved in this development for more than 10 years starting with our successful ML BR projects for IRS. Along with a general purpose Rule Learner, we also provide Rule Compressor, that uses ML to compress large decision tables to smaller ones. This recent presentation explains how it works. Let's consider a simple example.

Machine learning (ML) started to become widely deployed in cyber security settings for shortening the detection cycle of cyber attacks. To date, most ML-based systems are either proprietary or make specific choices of feature representations and machine learning models. The success of these techniques is difficult to assess as public benchmark datasets are currently unavailable. In this paper, we provide concrete guidelines and recommendations for using supervised ML in cyber security. As a case study, we consider the problem of botnet detection from network traffic data. Among our findings we highlight that: (1) feature representations should take into consideration attack characteristics; (2) ensemble models are well-suited to handle class imbalance; (3) the granularity of ground truth plays an important role in the success of these methods.