Rule-Based Reasoning
Thailand plans reform of up to 7,000 business rules to tempt foreign investment
Thailand risks losing ground to regional rivals such as Vietnam and Indonesia, which have moved more aggressively to streamline regulatory regimes and court foreign capital. Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul's government plans a sweeping reform of more than 7,000 business regulations, aiming to cut bureaucratic hurdles and accelerate investment as it tries to compete for global capital. The planned rollback of ministerial rules and secondary regulations, many of which have accumulated into a significant burden on companies, marks a concerted push to reposition Thailand as a more competitive destination for multinational firms reconfiguring supply chains. The effort was detailed in a government statement Monday and comes as Thailand risks losing ground to regional rivals such as Vietnam and Indonesia, which have moved more aggressively to streamline regulatory regimes and court foreign capital. "Regulations intended to guide have, in practice, become costs," said government spokeswoman Rachada Dhnadirek.
Why Model Selection Fails in Time Series Forecasting: An Empirical Study of Instability Across Data Regimes
Akinci, Tahir Cetin, Martinez-Morales, Alfredo A.
Time series forecasting models often exhibit inconsistent performance across datasets with varying statistical and structural properties. Despite the wide range of available forecasting techniques, it remains unclear whether model selection can be reliably guided by simple data characteristics. This paper investigates why rule-based model selection fails in time series forecasting by analyzing the relationship between data-regime descriptors and model performance. A descriptor-based framework is introduced to characterize time series using measurable properties, including trend strength, seasonality, noise level, and temporal dependence. Based on these descriptors, a rule-based selection mechanism is formulated to map data regimes to candidate forecasting models. The approach is evaluated on multiple real-world datasets across different domains and forecasting horizons. The results show that rule-based model selection achieves low accuracy, with correct model identification occurring in only a small fraction of cases. Significant discrepancies are observed between recommended and empirically optimal models, particularly in noisy and mixed regimes. Further analysis reveals that model performance is highly sensitive to both dataset characteristics and forecasting horizon, resulting in substantial ranking instability across scenarios. These findings explain why simple heuristic rules fail to generalize and demonstrate that forecasting performance cannot be reliably predicted using static, descriptor-based approaches. This study provides empirical evidence that model selection in time series forecasting is inherently context-dependent and highlights the need for more adaptive, data-driven strategies.
Learning Rule-Induced Subgraph Representations for Inductive Relation Prediction
Inductive relation prediction (IRP)--where entities can be different during training and inference--has shown great power for completing evolving knowledge graphs. Existing works mainly focus on using graph neural networks (GNNs) to learn the representation of the subgraph induced from the target link, which can be seen as an implicit rule-mining process to measure the plausibility of the target link. However, these methods cannot differentiate the target link and other links during message passing, hence the final subgraph representation will contain irrelevant rule information to the target link, which reduces the reasoning performance and severely hinders the applications for real-world scenarios. To tackle this problem, we propose a novel single-source edge-wise GNN model to learn the Rule-inducEd Subgraph represenTations (REST), which encodes relevant rules and eliminates irrelevant rules within the subgraph. Specifically, we propose a single-source initialization approach to initialize edge features only for the target link, which guarantees the relevance of mined rules and target link. Then we propose several RNN-based functions for edge-wise message passing to model the sequential property of mined rules. REST is a simple and effective approach with theoretical support to learn the rule-induced subgraph representation. Moreover, REST does not need node labeling, which significantly accelerates the subgraph preprocessing time by up to 11.66 . Experiments on inductive relation prediction benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of our REST2.
Detecting Bugs with Substantial Monetary Consequences by LLM and Rule-based Reasoning
Financial transactions are increasingly being handled by automated programs called . However, one challenge in the adaptation of smart contracts is the presence of vulnerabilities, which can cause significant monetary loss.In 2024, $247.88 M was lost in 20 smart contract exploits.According to a recent study, accounting bugs (i.e., incorrect implementations of domain-specific financial models) are the most prevalent type of vulnerability, and are one of the most difficult to find, requiring substantial human efforts.While Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown promise in identifying these bugs, they often suffer from lack of generalization of vulnerability types, hallucinations, and problems with representing smart contracts in limited token context space.This paper proposes a hybrid system combining LLMs and rule-based reasoning to detect accounting error vulnerabilities in smart contracts. In particular, it utilizes the understanding capabilities of LLMs to annotate the financial meaning of variables in smart contracts, and employs rule-based reasoning to propagate the information throughout a contract's logic and to validate potential vulnerabilities.To remedy hallucinations, we propose a feedback loop where validation is performed by providing the reasoning trace of vulnerabilities to the LLM for iterative self-reflection. We achieve 75.6% accuracy on the labelling of financial meanings against human annotations. Furthermore, we achieve a recall of 90.5% from running on 23 real-world smart contract projects containing 21 accounting error vulnerabilities.Finally, we apply the automated technique on 8 recent projects, finding 4 known and 2 unknown bugs.
Boolean Decision Rules via Column Generation
This paper considers the learning of Boolean rules in either disjunctive normal form (DNF, OR-of-ANDs, equivalent to decision rule sets) or conjunctive normal form (CNF, AND-of-ORs) as an interpretable model for classification. An integer program is formulated to optimally trade classification accuracy for rule simplicity. Column generation (CG) is used to efficiently search over an exponential number of candidate clauses (conjunctions or disjunctions) without the need for heuristic rule mining. This approach also bounds the gap between the selected rule set and the best possible rule set on the training data. To handle large datasets, we propose an approximate CG algorithm using randomization. Compared to three recently proposed alternatives, the CG algorithm dominates the accuracy-simplicity trade-off in 8 out of 16 datasets. When maximized for accuracy, CG is competitive with rule learners designed for this purpose, sometimes finding significantly simpler solutions that are no less accurate.
Multi-value Rule Sets for Interpretable Classification with Feature-Efficient Representations
We present the Multi-value Rule Set (MRS) for interpretable classification with feature efficient presentations. Compared to rule sets built from single-value rules, MRS adopts a more generalized form of association rules that allows multiple values in a condition. Rules of this form are more concise than classical single-value rules in capturing and describing patterns in data. Our formulation also pursues a higher efficiency of feature utilization, which reduces possible cost in data collection and storage. We propose a Bayesian framework for formulating an MRS model and develop an efficient inference method for learning a maximum a posteriori, incorporating theoretically grounded bounds to iteratively reduce the search space and improve the search efficiency. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate that MRS models have significantly smaller complexity and fewer features than baseline models while being competitive in predictive accuracy.
Help! My Best Friend's Husband Has a Very Strange Set of "Rules." And Now He's Turning Them on Me.
My Best Friend's Husband Has a Very Strange Set of "Rules." Prudie chats with Lizzie O'Leary, host of What Next: TBD, about a man whose "quirky" demands are getting concerning. I'm struggling with the behavior of my close friend's husband, and I'm worried about how it's affecting her. He is the most indecisive person I have ever encountered. Any time we visit, he has to plan our schedule down to the minute, but even then, he constantly changes his mind.