This paper provides a formal and practical framework for sound abstraction of probabilistic actions. We start by precisely defining the concept of sound abstraction within the context of finite-horizon planning (where each plan is a finite sequence of actions). Next we show that such abstraction cannot be performed within the traditional probabilistic action representation, which models a world with a single probability distribution over the state space. We then present the constraint mass assignment representation, which models the world with a set of probability distributions and is a generalization of mass assignment representations. Within this framework, we present sound abstraction procedures for three types of action abstraction. We end the paper with discussions and related work on sound and approximate abstraction. We give pointers to papers in which we discuss other sound abstraction-related issues, including applications, estimating loss due to abstraction, and automatically generating abstraction hierarchies.

Approximate models of world state transitions are necessary when building plans for complex systems operating in dynamic environments. External event probabilities can depend on state feature values as well as time spent in that particular state. We assign temporally -dependent probability functions to state transitions. These functions are used to locally compute state probabilities, which are then used to select highly probable goal paths and eliminate improbable states. This probabilistic model has been implemented in the Cooperative Intelligent Real-time Control Architecture (CIRCA), which combines an AI planner with a separate real-time system such that plans are developed, scheduled, and executed with real-time guarantees. We present flight simulation tests that demonstrate how our probabilistic model may improve CIRCA performance.

We examine the computational complexity of testing and finding small plans in probabilistic planning domains with succinct representations. We find that many problems of interest are complete for a variety of complexity classes: NP, co-NP, PP, NP^PP, co-NP^PP, and PSPACE. Of these, the probabilistic classes PP and NP^PP are likely to be of special interest in the field of uncertainty in artificial intelligence and are deserving of additional study. These results suggest a fruitful direction of future algorithmic development.

We present a new abductive, probabilistic theory of plan recognition. This model differs from previous plan recognition theories in being centered around a model of plan execution: most previous methods have been based on plans as formal objects or on rules describing the recognition process. We show that our new model accounts for phenomena omitted from most previous plan recognition theories: notably the cumulative effect of a sequence of observations of partially-ordered, interleaved plans and the effect of context on plan adoption. The model also supports inferences about the evolution of plan execution in situations where another agent intervenes in plan execution. This facility provides support for using plan recognition to build systems that will intelligently assist a user.

The propositional planning problem is a notoriously difficult computational problem. Downey et al. (1999) initiated the parameterized analysis of planning (with plan length as the parameter) and B\"ackstr\"om et al. (2012) picked up this line of research and provided an extensive parameterized analysis under various restrictions, leaving open only one stubborn case. We continue this work and provide a full classification. In particular, we show that the case when actions have no preconditions and at most $e$ postconditions is fixed-parameter tractable if $e\leq 2$ and W[1]-complete otherwise. We show fixed-parameter tractability by a reduction to a variant of the Steiner Tree problem; this problem has been shown fixed-parameter tractable by Guo et al. (2007). If a problem is fixed-parameter tractable, then it admits a polynomial-time self-reduction to instances whose input size is bounded by a function of the parameter, called the kernel. For some problems, this function is even polynomial which has desirable computational implications. Recent research in parameterized complexity has focused on classifying fixed-parameter tractable problems on whether they admit polynomial kernels or not. We revisit all the previously obtained restrictions of planning that are fixed-parameter tractable and show that none of them admits a polynomial kernel unless the polynomial hierarchy collapses to its third level.

In this work we focus on efficient heuristics for solving a class of stochastic planning problems that arise in a variety of business, investment, and industrial applications. The problem is best described in terms of future buy and sell contracts. By buying less reliable, but less expensive, buy (supply) contracts, a company or a trader can cover a position of more reliable and more expensive sell contracts. The goal is to maximize the expected net gain (profit) by constructing a dose to optimum portfolio out of the available buy and sell contracts. This stochastic planning problem can be formulated as a two-stage stochastic linear programming problem with recourse. However, this formalization leads to solutions that are exponential in the number of possible failure combinations. Thus, this approach is not feasible for large scale problems. In this work we investigate heuristic approximation techniques alleviating the efficiency problem. We primarily focus on the clustering approach and devise heuristics for finding clusterings leading to good approximations. We illustrate the quality and feasibility of the approach through experimental data.

Planning problems are hard, motion planning, for example, isPSPACE-hard. Such problems are even more difficult in the presence of uncertainty. Although, Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) provide a formal framework for such problems, finding solutions to high dimensional continuous MDPs is usually difficult, especially when the actions and time measurements are continuous. Fortunately, problem-specific knowledge allows us to design controllers that are good locally, though having no global guarantees. We propose a method of nonparametrically combining local controllers to obtain globally good solutions. We apply this formulation to two types of problems : motion planning (stochastic shortest path) and discounted MDPs. For motion planning, we argue that usual MDP optimality criterion (expected cost) may not be practically relevant. Wepropose an alternative: finding the minimum cost path,subject to the constraint that the robot must reach the goal withhigh probability. For this problem, we prove that a polynomial number of samples is sufficient to obtain a high probability path. For discounted MDPs, we propose a formulation that explicitly deals with model uncertainty, i.e., the problem introduced when transition probabilities are not known exactly. We formulate the problem as a robust linear program which directly incorporates this type of uncertainty.

Bayesian model-based reinforcement learning is a formally elegant approach to learning optimal behaviour under model uncertainty, trading off exploration and exploitation in an ideal way. Unfortunately, finding the resulting Bayes-optimal policies is notoriously taxing, since the search space becomes enormous. In this paper we introduce a tractable, sample-based method for approximate Bayes-optimal planning which exploits Monte-Carlo tree search. Our approach outperformed prior Bayesian model-based RL algorithms by a significant margin on several well-known benchmark problems -- because it avoids expensive applications of Bayes rule within the search tree by lazily sampling models from the current beliefs. We illustrate the advantages of our approach by showing it working in an infinite state space domain which is qualitatively out of reach of almost all previous work in Bayesian exploration.

Multi-Agent Plan Recognition (MAPR) aims to recognize dynamic team structures and team behaviors from the observed team traces (activity sequences) of a set of intelligent agents. Previous MAPR approaches required a library of team activity sequences (team plans) be given as input. However, collecting a library of team plans to ensure adequate coverage is often difficult and costly. In this paper, we relax this constraint, so that team plans are not required to be provided beforehand. We assume instead that a set of action models are available. Such models are often already created to describe domain physics; i.e., the preconditions and effects of effects actions. We propose a novel approach for recognizing multi-agent team plans based on such action models rather than libraries of team plans. We encode the resulting MAPR problem as a \emph{satisfiability problem} and solve the problem using a state-of-the-art weighted MAX-SAT solver. Our approach also allows for incompleteness in the observed plan traces. Our empirical studies demonstrate that our algorithm is both effective and efficient in comparison to state-of-the-art MAPR methods based on plan libraries.

The AAAI-12 Workshop program was held Sunday and Monday, July 22–23, 2012 at the Sheraton Centre Toronto Hotel in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The AAAI-12 workshop program included 9 workshops covering a wide range of topics in artificial intelligence. The titles of the workshops were Activity Context Representation: Techniques and Languages, AI for Data Center Management and Cloud Computing, Cognitive Robotics, Grounding Language for Physical Systems, Human Computation, Intelligent Techniques for Web Personalization and Recommendation, Multiagent Pathfinding, Neural-Symbolic Learning and Reasoning, Problem Solving Using Classical Planners, Semantic Cities. This article presents short summaries of those events.