Inference in general Markov random fields (MRFs) is NP-hard, though identifying the maximum a posteriori (MAP) configuration of pairwise MRFs with submodular cost functions is efficiently solvable using graph cuts. Marginal inference, however, even for this restricted class, is in #P. We prove new formulations of derivatives of the Bethe free energy, provide bounds on the derivatives and bracket the locations of stationary points, introducing a new technique called Bethe bound propagation. Several results apply to pairwise models whether associative or not. Applying these to discretized pseudo-marginals in the associative case we present a polynomial time approximation scheme for global optimization provided the maximum degree is $O(\log n)$, and discuss several extensions.

We propose AD3, a new algorithm for approximate maximum a posteriori (MAP) inference on factor graphs based on the alternating directions method of multipliers. Like dual decomposition algorithms, AD3 uses worker nodes to iteratively solve local subproblems and a controller node to combine these local solutions into a global update. The key characteristic of AD3 is that each local subproblem has a quadratic regularizer, leading to a faster consensus than subgradient-based dual decomposition, both theoretically and in practice. We provide closed-form solutions for these AD3 subproblems for binary pairwise factors and factors imposing first-order logic constraints. For arbitrary factors (large or combinatorial), we introduce an active set method which requires only an oracle for computing a local MAP configuration, making AD3 applicable to a wide range of problems. Experiments on synthetic and realworld problems show that AD3 compares favorably with the state-of-the-art.

In science and engineering, intelligent processing of complex signals such as images, sound or language is often performed by a parameterized hierarchy of nonlinear processing layers, sometimes biologically inspired. Hierarchical systems (or, more generally, nested systems) offer a way to generate complex mappings using simple stages. Each layer performs a different operation and achieves an ever more sophisticated representation of the input, as, for example, in an deep artificial neural network, an object recognition cascade in computer vision or a speech front-end processing. Joint estimation of the parameters of all the layers and selection of an optimal architecture is widely considered to be a difficult numerical nonconvex optimization problem, difficult to parallelize for execution in a distributed computation environment, and requiring significant human expert effort, which leads to suboptimal systems in practice. We describe a general mathematical strategy to learn the parameters and, to some extent, the architecture of nested systems, called the method of auxiliary coordinates (MAC). This replaces the original problem involving a deeply nested function with a constrained problem involving a different function in an augmented space without nesting. The constrained problem may be solved with penalty-based methods using alternating optimization over the parameters and the auxiliary coordinates. MAC has provable convergence, is easy to implement reusing existing algorithms for single layers, can be parallelized trivially and massively, applies even when parameter derivatives are not available or not desirable, and is competitive with state-of-the-art nonlinear optimizers even in the serial computation setting, often providing reasonable models within a few iterations.

This paper presents a model based on an hybrid system to numerically simulate the climbing phase of an aircraft. This model is then used within a trajectory prediction tool. Finally, the Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy (CMA-ES) optimization algorithm is used to tune five selected parameters, and thus improve the accuracy of the model. Incorporated within a trajectory prediction tool, this model can be used to derive the order of magnitude of the prediction error over time, and thus the domain of validity of the trajectory prediction. A first validation experiment of the proposed model is based on the errors along time for a one-time trajectory prediction at the take off of the flight with respect to the default values of the theoretical BADA model. This experiment, assuming complete information, also shows the limit of the model. A second experiment part presents an on-line trajectory prediction, in which the prediction is continuously updated based on the current aircraft position. This approach raises several issues, for which improvements of the basic model are proposed, and the resulting trajectory prediction tool shows statistically significantly more accurate results than those of the default model.

Nowadays, huge efforts are made to modernize the air traffic management systems to cope with uncertainty, complexity and sub-optimality. An answer is to enhance the information sharing between the stakeholders. This paper introduces a framework that bridges the gap between air traffic management and air traffic control on the one hand, and bridges the gap between the ground, the approach and the en-route centers on the other hand. An original system is presented, that has three essential components: the trajectory models, the optimization process, and the monitoring process. The uncertainty of the trajectory is modeled with a Bayesian Network, where the nodes are associated to two types of random variables: the time of overflight on metering points of the airspace, and the traveling time of the routes linking these points. The resulting Bayesian Network covers the complete airspace, and Monte- Carlo simulations are done to estimate the probabilities of sector congestion and delays. On top of this trajectory model, an optimization process minimizes these probabilities by tuning the parameters of the Bayesian trajectory model related to overflight times on metering points. The last component is the monitoring process, that continuously updates the situation of the airspace, modifying the trajectories uncertainties according to actual positions of aircraft. After each update, a new optimal set of overflight times is computed, and can be communicated to the controllers as clearances for the aircraft pilots. The paper presents a formal specification of this global optimization problem, whose underlying rationale was derived with the help of air traffic controllers at Thales Air Systems.

MAP is the problem of finding a most probable instantiation of a set of nvariables in a Bayesian network, given some evidence. MAP appears to be a significantly harder problem than the related problems of computing the probability of evidence Pr, or MPE a special case of MAP. Because of the complexity of MAP, and the lack of viable algorithms to approximate it,MAP computations are generally avoided by practitioners. This paper investigates the complexity of MAP. We show that MAP is complete for NP. We also provide negative complexity results for elimination based algorithms. It turns out that MAP remains hard even when MPE, and Pr are easy. We show that MAP is NPcomplete when the networks are restricted to polytrees, and even then can not be effectively approximated. Because there is no approximation algorithm with guaranteed results, we investigate best effort approximations. We introduce a generic MAP approximation framework. As one instantiation of it, we implement local search coupled with belief propagation BP to approximate MAP. We show how to extract approximate evidence retraction information from belief propagation which allows us to perform efficient local search. This allows MAP approximation even on networks that are too complex to even exactly solve the easier problems of computing Pr or MPE. Experimental results indicate that using BP and local search provides accurate MAP estimates in many cases.

A number of modern learning tasks involve estimation from heterogeneous information sources. This includes classification with labeled and unlabeled data as well as other problems with analogous structure such as competitive (game theoretic) problems. The associated estimation problems can be typically reduced to solving a set of fixed point equations (consistency conditions). We introduce a general method for combining a preferred information source with another in this setting by evolving continuous paths of fixed points at intermediate allocations. We explicitly identify critical points along the unique paths to either increase the stability of estimation or to ensure a significant departure from the initial source. The homotopy continuation approach is guaranteed to terminate at the second source, and involves no combinatorial effort. We illustrate the power of these ideas both in classification tasks with labeled and unlabeled data, as well as in the context of a competitive (min-max) formulation of DNA sequence motif discovery.

Bounds on the log partition function are important in a variety of contexts, including approximate inference, model fitting, decision theory, and large deviations analysis. We introduce a new class of upper bounds on the log partition function, based on convex combinations of distributions in the exponential domain, that is applicable to an arbitrary undirected graphical model. In the special case of convex combinations of tree-structured distributions, we obtain a family of variational problems, similar to the Bethe free energy, but distinguished by the following desirable properties: i. they are cnvex, and have a unique global minimum; and ii. the global minimum gives an upper bound on the log partition function. The global minimum is defined by stationary conditions very similar to those defining fixed points of belief propagation or tree-based reparameterization Wainwright et al., 2001. As with BP fixed points, the elements of the minimizing argument can be used as approximations to the marginals of the original model. The analysis described here can be extended to structures of higher treewidth e.g., hypertrees, thereby making connections with more advanced approximations e.g., Kikuchi and variants Yedidia et al., 2001; Minka, 2001.

We consider the problem of learning the structure of undirected graphical models with bounded treewidth, within the maximum likelihood framework. This is an NP-hard problem and most approaches consider local search techniques. In this paper, we pose it as a combinatorial optimization problem, which is then relaxed to a convex optimization problem that involves searching over the forest and hyperforest polytopes with special structures, independently. A supergradient method is used to solve the dual problem, with a run-time complexity of $O(k^3 n^{k+2} \log n)$ for each iteration, where $n$ is the number of variables and $k$ is a bound on the treewidth. We compare our approach to state-of-the-art methods on synthetic datasets and classical benchmarks, showing the gains of the novel convex approach.

In their nature configuration problems are combinatorial (optimization) problems. In order to find a configuration a solver has to instantiate a number of components of a some type and each of these components can be used in a relation defined for a type. Therefore, many solutions of a configuration problem have symmetric ones which can be obtained by replacing some component of a solution by another one of the same type. These symmetric solutions decrease performance of optimization algorithms because of two reasons: a) they satisfy all requirements and cannot be pruned out from the search space; and b) existence of symmetric optimal solutions does not allow to prove the optimum in a feasible time.