Given an agricultural watershed containing a set of spatial units, and a set of land management practices, the Geodesign Optimization (GOP) aims to find a land management practice for each spatial unit that optimizes overall water quality improvements in the watershed under both budget constraint and spatial constraints (e.g., minimum contiguous area, shape) arising from farm equipment operation practicalities. GOP is important for redesign of agricultural watersheds in Midwestern US to mitigate soil and water quality degradation and loss of habitat. The problem is computationally challenging as a large-scale combinatorial problem (NP-hard) under spatial constraints. Existing optimization techniques do not address spatial constraints, and lead to impractical solutions requiring frequent farm equipment reconfiguration. In this paper, we formalize the spatially-constrained GOP and propose a novel spatial optimizer which explores optimal solution without constraint violations. Our approach is further validated through a Geodesign case study at Seven Mile Creek watershed in Midwestern US.

Many common applications of predictive analytics, from customer segmentation to medical diagnosis, arise from complex relationships between features (also called variables or characteristics). Feature selection is the process of finding the most relevant variables for a predictive model. These techniques can be used to identify and remove unneeded, irrelevant and redundant features that do not contribute or decrease the accuracy of the predictive model. Mathematically, feature selection is formulated as a combinatorial optimization problem. Here the function to optimize is the generalization performance of the predictive model, represented by the error on a selection data set.

Matrix completion is a basic machine learning problem that has wide applications, especially in collaborative filtering and recommender systems. Simple non-convex optimization algorithms are popular and effective in practice. Despite recent progress in proving various non-convex algorithms converge from a good initial point, it remains unclear why random or arbitrary initialization suffices in practice. We prove that the commonly used non-convex objective function for \textit{positive semidefinite} matrix completion has no spurious local minima --- all local minima must also be global. Therefore, many popular optimization algorithms such as (stochastic) gradient descent can provably solve positive semidefinite matrix completion with \textit{arbitrary} initialization in polynomial time. The result can be generalized to the setting when the observed entries contain noise. We believe that our main proof strategy can be useful for understanding geometric properties of other statistical problems involving partial or noisy observations.

The ability to accurately forecast and control inpatient census, and thereby workloads, is a critical and longstanding problem in hospital management. Majority of current literature focuses on optimal scheduling of inpatients, but largely ignores the process of accurate estimation of the trajectory of patients throughout the treatment and recovery process. The result is that current scheduling models are optimizing based on inaccurate input data. We developed a Clustering and Scheduling Integrated (CSI) approach to capture patient flows through a network of hospital services. CSI functions by clustering patients into groups based on similarity of trajectory using a novel Semi-Markov model (SMM)-based clustering scheme proposed in this paper, as opposed to clustering by admit type or condition as in previous literature. The methodology is validated by simulation and then applied to real patient data from a partner hospital where we see it outperforms current methods. Further, we demonstrate that extant optimization methods achieve significantly better results on key hospital performance measures under CSI, compared with traditional estimation approaches, increasing elective admissions by 97% and utilization by 22% compared to 30% and 8% using traditional estimation techniques. From a theoretical standpoint, the SMM-clustering is a novel approach applicable to any temporal-spatial stochastic data that is prevalent in many industries and application areas.

Accurate multichannel campaign attribution has stumped the online marketing industry for years. But what if the solution is to stop worrying about attribution, and move to an optimization-driven approach? You know those photo mosaic images, which suddenly became terribly popular a few years back? They cleverly use lots of individual tiny images to make up one large image. If you look closely you can make out the individual images, but you have to stand back to take in the full picture.

We introduce the implicitly constrained least squares (ICLS) classifier, a novel semi-supervised version of the least squares classifier. This classifier minimizes the squared loss on the labeled data among the set of parameters implied by all possible labelings of the unlabeled data. Unlike other discriminative semi-supervised methods, this approach does not introduce explicit additional assumptions into the objective function, but leverages implicit assumptions already present in the choice of the supervised least squares classifier. This method can be formulated as a quadratic programming problem and its solution can be found using a simple gradient descent procedure. We prove that, in a limited 1-dimensional setting, this approach never leads to performance worse than the supervised classifier. Experimental results show that also in the general multidimensional case performance improvements can be expected, both in terms of the squared loss that is intrinsic to the classifier, as well as in terms of the expected classification error.

Existing approaches to online convex optimization (OCO) make sequential one-slot-ahead decisions, which lead to (possibly adversarial) losses that drive subsequent decision iterates. Their performance is evaluated by the so-called regret that measures the difference of losses between the online solution and the best yet fixed overall solution in hindsight. The present paper deals with online convex optimization involving adversarial loss functions and adversarial constraints, where the constraints are revealed after making decisions, and can be tolerable to instantaneous violations but must be satisfied in the long term. Performance of an online algorithm in this setting is assessed by: i) the difference of its losses relative to the best dynamic solution with one-slot-ahead information of the loss function and the constraint (that is here termed dynamic regret); and, ii) the accumulated amount of constraint violations (that is here termed dynamic fit). In this context, a modified online saddle-point (MOSP) scheme is developed, and proved to simultaneously yield sub-linear dynamic regret and fit, provided that the accumulated variations of per-slot minimizers and constraints are sub-linearly growing with time. MOSP is also applied to the dynamic network resource allocation task, and it is compared with the well-known stochastic dual gradient method. Under various scenarios, numerical experiments demonstrate the performance gain of MOSP relative to the state-of-the-art.

Constraint-based causal discovery from limited data is a notoriously difficult challenge due to the many borderline independence test decisions. Several approaches to improve the reliability of the predictions by exploiting redundancy in the independence information have been proposed recently. Though promising, existing approaches can still be greatly improved in terms of accuracy and scalability. We present a novel method that reduces the combinatorial explosion of the search space by using a more coarse-grained representation of causal information, drastically reducing computation time. Additionally, we propose a method to score causal predictions based on their confidence. Crucially, our implementation also allows one to easily combine observational and interventional data and to incorporate various types of available background knowledge. We prove soundness and asymptotic consistency of our method and demonstrate that it can outperform the state-of-the-art on synthetic data, achieving a speedup of several orders of magnitude. We illustrate its practical feasibility by applying it on a challenging protein data set.

The measurement and analysis of Electrodermal Activity (EDA) offers applications in diverse areas ranging from market research, to seizure detection, to human stress analysis. Unfortunately, the analysis of EDA signals is made difficult by the superposition of numerous components which can obscure the signal information related to a user's response to a stimulus. We show how simple pre-processing followed by a novel compressed sensing based decomposition can mitigate the effects of the undesired noise components and help reveal the underlying physiological signal. The proposed framework allows for decomposition of EDA signals with provable bounds on the recovery of user responses. We test our procedure on both synthetic and real-world EDA signals from wearable sensors and demonstrate that our approach allows for more accurate recovery of user responses as compared to the existing techniques.

In this paper we propose a randomized primal-dual proximal block coordinate updating framework for a general multi-block convex optimization model with coupled objective function and linear constraints. Assuming mere convexity, we establish its $O(1/t)$ convergence rate in terms of the objective value and feasibility measure. The framework includes several existing algorithms as special cases such as a primal-dual method for bilinear saddle-point problems (PD-S), the proximal Jacobian ADMM (Prox-JADMM) and a randomized variant of the ADMM method for multi-block convex optimization. Our analysis recovers and/or strengthens the convergence properties of several existing algorithms. For example, for PD-S our result leads to the same order of convergence rate without the previously assumed boundedness condition on the constraint sets, and for Prox-JADMM the new result provides convergence rate in terms of the objective value and the feasibility violation. It is well known that the original ADMM may fail to converge when the number of blocks exceeds two. Our result shows that if an appropriate randomization procedure is invoked to select the updating blocks, then a sublinear rate of convergence in expectation can be guaranteed for multi-block ADMM, without assuming any strong convexity. The new approach is also extended to solve problems where only a stochastic approximation of the (sub-)gradient of the objective is available, and we establish an $O(1/\sqrt{t})$ convergence rate of the extended approach for solving stochastic programming.