We introduce the variational filtering EM algorithm, a simple, general-purpose method for performing variational inference in dynamical latent variable models using information from only past and present variables, i.e. filtering. The algorithm is derived from the variational objective in the filtering setting and consists of an optimization procedure at each time step. By performing each inference optimization procedure with an iterative amortized inference model, we obtain a computationally efficient implementation of the algorithm, which we call amortized variational filtering. We present experiments demonstrating that this general-purpose method improves inference performance across several recent deep dynamical latent variable models.

We consider the minimization of submodular functions subject to ordering constraints. We show that this potentially non-convex optimization problem can be cast as a convex optimization problem on a space of uni-dimensional measures, with ordering constraints corresponding to first-order stochastic dominance. We propose new discretization schemes that lead to simple and efficient algorithms based on zero-th, first, or higher order oracles; these algorithms also lead to improvements without isotonic constraints. Finally, our experiments show that non-convex loss functions can be much more robust to outliers for isotonic regression, while still being solvable in polynomial time.

While recent developments in autonomous vehicle (AV) technology highlight substantial progress, we lack tools for rigorous and scalable testing. Real-world testing, the de facto evaluation environment, places the public in danger, and, due to the rare nature of accidents, will require billions of miles in order to statistically validate performance claims. We implement a simulation framework that can test an entire modern autonomous driving system, including, in particular, systems that employ deep-learning perception and control algorithms. Using adaptive importance-sampling methods to accelerate rare-event probability evaluation, we estimate the probability of an accident under a base distribution governing standard traffic behavior. We demonstrate our framework on a highway scenario, accelerating system evaluation by 2-20 times over naive Monte Carlo sampling methods and 10-300P times (where P is the number of processors) over real-world testing.

Expectation Maximization (EM) is among the most popular algorithms for maximum likelihood estimation, but it is generally only guaranteed to find its stationary points of the log-likelihood objective. The goal of this article is to present theoretical and empirical evidence that over-parameterization can help EM avoid spurious local optima in the log-likelihood. We consider the problem of estimating the mean vectors of a Gaussian mixture model in a scenario where the mixing weights are known. Our study shows that the global behavior of EM, when one uses an over-parameterized model in which the mixing weights are treated as unknown, is better than that when one uses the (correct) model with the mixing weights fixed to the known values. For symmetric Gaussians mixtures with two components, we prove that introducing the (statistically redundant) weight parameters enables EM to find the global maximizer of the log-likelihood starting from almost any initial mean parameters, whereas EM without this over-parameterization may very often fail. For other Gaussian mixtures, we provide empirical evidence that shows similar behavior. Our results corroborate the value of over-parameterization in solving non-convex optimization problems, previously observed in other domains.

We study the implicit regularization properties of optimization techniques by explicitly connecting their optimization paths to the regularization paths of ``corresponding'' regularized problems. This surprising connection shows that iterates of optimization techniques such as gradient descent and mirror descent are \emph{pointwise} close to solutions of appropriately regularized objectives. While such a tight connection between optimization and regularization is of independent intellectual interest, it also has important implications for machine learning: we can port results from regularized estimators to optimization, and vice versa. We investigate one key consequence, that borrows from the well-studied analysis of regularized estimators, to then obtain tight excess risk bounds of the iterates generated by optimization techniques.

Bayesian optimization usually assumes that a Bayesian prior is given. However, the strong theoretical guarantees in Bayesian optimization are often regrettably compromised in practice because of unknown parameters in the prior. In this paper, we adopt a variant of empirical Bayes and show that, by estimating the Gaussian process prior from offline data sampled from the same prior and constructing unbiased estimators of the posterior, variants of both GP-UCB and \emph{probability of improvement} achieve a near-zero regret bound, which decreases to a constant proportional to the observational noise as the number of offline data and the number of online evaluations increase. Empirically, we have verified our approach on challenging simulated robotic problems featuring task and motion planning.

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is an important methodology for Bayesian inference when the likelihood function is intractable. Sampling-based ABC algorithms such as rejection- and K2-ABC are inefficient when the parameters have high dimensions, while the regression-based algorithms such as K- and DR-ABC are hard to scale. In this paper, we introduce an optimization-based ABC framework that addresses these deficiencies. Leveraging a generative model for posterior and joint distribution matching, we show that ABC can be framed as saddle point problems, whose objectives can be accessed directly with samples. We present the predictive ABC algorithm (P-ABC), and provide a probabilistically approximately correct (PAC) bound that guarantees its learning consistency. Numerical experiment shows that P-ABC outperforms both K2- and DR-ABC significantly.

We advocate Laplacian K-modes for joint clustering and density mode finding, and propose a concave-convex relaxation of the problem, which yields a parallel algorithm that scales up to large datasets and high dimensions. We optimize a tight bound (auxiliary function) of our relaxation, which, at each iteration, amounts to computing an independent update for each cluster-assignment variable, with guar- anteed convergence. Therefore, our bound optimizer can be trivially distributed for large-scale data sets. Furthermore, we show that the density modes can be obtained as byproducts of the assignment variables via simple maximum-value operations whose additional computational cost is linear in the number of data points. Our formulation does not need storing a full affinity matrix and computing its eigenvalue decomposition, neither does it perform expensive projection steps and Lagrangian-dual inner iterates for the simplex constraints of each point. Fur- thermore, unlike mean-shift, our density-mode estimation does not require inner- loop gradient-ascent iterates. It has a complexity independent of feature-space dimension, yields modes that are valid data points in the input set and is appli- cable to discrete domains as well as arbitrary kernels. We report comprehensive experiments over various data sets, which show that our algorithm yields very competitive performances in term of optimization quality (i.e., the value of the discrete-variable objective at convergence) and clustering accuracy.

Bayesian optimization is a sample-efficient approach to global optimization that relies on theoretically motivated value heuristics (acquisition functions) to guide its search process. Fully maximizing acquisition functions produces the Bayes' decision rule, but this ideal is difficult to achieve since these functions are frequently non-trivial to optimize. This statement is especially true when evaluating queries in parallel, where acquisition functions are routinely non-convex, high-dimensional, and intractable. We first show that acquisition functions estimated via Monte Carlo integration are consistently amenable to gradient-based optimization. Subsequently, we identify a common family of acquisition functions, including EI and UCB, whose characteristics not only facilitate but justify use of greedy approaches for their maximization.

We present an end-to-end framework for solving the Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP) using reinforcement learning. In this approach, we train a single policy model that finds near-optimal solutions for a broad range of problem instances of similar size, only by observing the reward signals and following feasibility rules. We consider a parameterized stochastic policy, and by applying a policy gradient algorithm to optimize its parameters, the trained model produces the solution as a sequence of consecutive actions in real time, without the need to retrain for every new problem instance. On capacitated VRP, our approach outperforms classical heuristics and Google's OR-Tools on medium-sized instances in solution quality with comparable computation time (after training). We demonstrate how our approach can handle problems with split delivery and explore the effect of such deliveries on the solution quality. Our proposed framework can be applied to other variants of the VRP such as the stochastic VRP, and has the potential to be applied more generally to combinatorial optimization problems.