Spreading processes play an increasingly important role in modeling for diffusion networks, information propagation, marketing, and opinion setting. Recent real-world spreading events further highlight the need for prediction, optimization, and control of diffusion dynamics. To tackle these tasks, it is essential to learn the effective spreading model and transmission probabilities across the network of interactions. However, in most cases the transmission rates are unknown and need to be inferred from the spreading data. Additionally, full observation of the dynamics is rarely available. As a result, standard approaches such as maximum likelihood quickly become intractable for large network instances. In this work, we study the popular Independent Cascade model of stochastic diffusion dynamics. We introduce a computationally efficient algorithm, based on a scalable dynamic message-passing approach, which is able to learn parameters of the effective spreading model given only limited information on the activation times of nodes in the network. Importantly, we show that the resulting model approximates the marginal activation probabilities that can be used for prediction of the spread.

We focus on the problem of black-box adversarial attacks, where the aim is to generate adversarial examples for deep learning models solely based on information limited to output labels (hard label) to a queried data input. We use Bayesian optimization (BO) to specifically cater to scenarios involving low query budgets to develop efficient adversarial attacks. Issues with BO's performance in high dimensions are avoided by searching for adversarial examples in structured low-dimensional subspace. Our proposed approach achieves better performance to state of the art black-box adversarial attacks that require orders of magnitude more queries than ours.

We introduce a randomly extrapolated primal-dual coordinate descent method that adapts to sparsity of the data matrix and the favorable structures of the objective function. Our method updates only a subset of primal and dual variables with sparse data, and it uses large step sizes with dense data, retaining the benefits of the specific methods designed for each case. In addition to adapting to sparsity, our method attains fast convergence guarantees in favorable cases \textit{without any modifications}. In particular, we prove linear convergence under metric subregularity, which applies to strongly convex-strongly concave problems and piecewise linear quadratic functions. We show almost sure convergence of the sequence and optimal sublinear convergence rates for the primal-dual gap and objective values, in the general convex-concave case. Numerical evidence demonstrates the state-of-the-art empirical performance of our method in sparse and dense settings, matching and improving the existing methods.

Inference is ubiquitous in financial applications: stress-testing and scenario analysis, such as in[Mina and Xiao, 2001], explore the consequences of specific market scenarios on the distribution of the portfolio loss. Similar, portfolio construction techniques such as [Black and Litterman, 1990] inject views on specific factor returns into the estimated distribution of a broad market. A general approach to perform inference under partial information based on the principle of minimum relative entropy (MRE) was explored in [Meucci, 2010]. In the original paper, the general theory was supported by two applications: an analytical solution under normality, and a numerical algorithm for distributions represented by scenarios, such as Monte Carlo, historical, or categorical. Here we enhance both the analytical and the numerical implementations of [Meucci, 2010] drawing from results in [Colasante, 2019]. In Section 2 we state well-known results to set the notation and background.

Large-scale Markov decision processes (MDPs) require planning algorithms with runtime independent of the number of states of the MDP. We consider the planning problem in MDPs using linear value function approximation with only weak requirements: low approximation error for the optimal value function, and a small set of "core" states whose features span those of other states. In particular, we make no assumptions about the representability of policies or value functions of non-optimal policies. Our algorithm produces almost-optimal actions for any state using a generative oracle (simulator) for the MDP, while its computation time scales polynomially with the number of features, core states, and actions and the effective horizon.

A browser is an incredibly complex piece of software. With such enormous complexity, the only way to maintain a rapid pace of development is through an extensive CI system that can give developers confidence that their changes won't introduce bugs. Given the scale of our CI, we're always looking for ways to reduce load while maintaining a high standard of product quality. We wondered if we could use machine learning to reach a higher degree of efficiency. At Mozilla we have around 50,000 unique test files. Each contain many test functions.

Earth observation resources are becoming increasingly indispensable in disaster relief, damage assessment and related domains. Many unpredicted factors, such as the change of observation task requirements, to the occurring of bad weather and resource failures, may cause the scheduled observation scheme to become infeasible. Therefore, it is crucial to be able to promptly and maybe frequently develop high-quality replanned observation schemes that minimize the effects on the scheduled tasks. A bottom-up distributed coordinated framework together with an improved contract net are proposed to facilitate the dynamic task replanning for heterogeneous Earth observation resources. This hierarchical framework consists of three levels, namely, neighboring resource coordination, single planning center coordination, and multiple planning center coordination. Observation tasks affected by unpredicted factors are assigned and treated along with a bottom-up route from resources to planning centers. This bottom-up distributed coordinated framework transfers part of the computing load to various nodes of the observation systems to allocate tasks more efficiently and robustly. To support the prompt assignment of large-scale tasks to proper Earth observation resources in dynamic environments, we propose a multiround combinatorial allocation (MCA) method. Moreover, a new float interval-based local search algorithm is proposed to obtain the promising planning scheme more quickly. The experiments demonstrate that the MCA method can achieve a better task completion rate for large-scale tasks with satisfactory time efficiency. It also demonstrates that this method can help to efficiently obtain replanning schemes based on original scheme in dynamic environments.

Autonomous and semi-autonomous systems for safety-critical applications require rigorous testing before deployment. Due to the complexity of these systems, formal verification may be impossible and real-world testing may be dangerous during development. Therefore, simulation-based techniques have been developed that treat the system under test as a black box during testing. Safety validation tasks include finding disturbances to the system that cause it to fail (falsification), finding the most-likely failure, and estimating the probability that the system fails. Motivated by the prevalence of safety-critical artificial intelligence, this work provides a survey of state-of-the-art safety validation techniques with a focus on applied algorithms and their modifications for the safety validation problem. We present and discuss algorithms in the domains of optimization, path planning, reinforcement learning, and importance sampling. Problem decomposition techniques are presented to help scale algorithms to large state spaces, and a brief overview of safety-critical applications is given, including autonomous vehicles and aircraft collision avoidance systems. Finally, we present a survey of existing academic and commercially available safety validation tools.

In this paper, we introduce a discrete variant of the meta-learning framework. Meta-learning aims at exploiting prior experience and data to improve performance on future tasks. By now, there exist numerous formulations for meta-learning in the continuous domain. Notably, the Model-Agnostic Meta-Learning (MAML) formulation views each task as a continuous optimization problem and based on prior data learns a suitable initialization that can be adapted to new, unseen tasks after a few simple gradient updates. Motivated by this terminology, we propose a novel meta-learning framework in the discrete domain where each task is equivalent to maximizing a set function under a cardinality constraint. Our approach aims at using prior data, i.e., previously visited tasks, to train a proper initial solution set that can be quickly adapted to a new task at a relatively low computational cost. This approach leads to (i) a personalized solution for each individual task, and (ii) significantly reduced computational cost at test time compared to the case where the solution is fully optimized once the new task is revealed. The training procedure is performed by solving a challenging discrete optimization problem for which we present deterministic and randomized algorithms. In the case where the tasks are monotone and submodular, we show strong theoretical guarantees for our proposed methods even though the training objective may not be submodular. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework on two real-world problem instances where we observe that our methods lead to a significant reduction in computational complexity in solving the new tasks while incurring a small performance loss compared to when the tasks are fully optimized.

Deterministic Policy Gradient (DPG) removes a level of randomness from standard randomized-action Policy Gradient (PG), and demonstrates substantial empirical success for tackling complex dynamic problems involving Markov decision processes. At the same time, though, DPG loses its ability to learn in a model-free (i.e., actor-only) fashion, frequently necessitating the use of critics in order to obtain consistent estimates of the associated policy-reward gradient. In this work, we introduce Zeroth-order Deterministic Policy Gradient (ZDPG), which approximates policy-reward gradients via two-point stochastic evaluations of the $Q$-function, constructed by properly designed low-dimensional action-space perturbations. Exploiting the idea of random horizon rollouts for obtaining unbiased estimates of the $Q$-function, ZDPG lifts the dependence on critics and restores true model-free policy learning, while enjoying built-in and provable algorithmic stability. Additionally, we present new finite sample complexity bounds for ZDPG, which improve upon existing results by up to two orders of magnitude. Our findings are supported by several numerical experiments, which showcase the effectiveness of ZDPG in a practical setting, and its advantages over both PG and Baseline PG.